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Institut Für Höhere Studien (IHS), Wien Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Egger, Peter; Pfaffermayr, Michael; Weber, Andrea Working Paper Sectoral adjustment of employment: The impact of outsourcing and trade at the micro level Reihe Ökonomie / Economics Series, No. 145 Provided in Cooperation with: Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna Suggested Citation: Egger, Peter; Pfaffermayr, Michael; Weber, Andrea (2003) : Sectoral adjustment of employment: The impact of outsourcing and trade at the micro level, Reihe Ökonomie / Economics Series, No. 145, Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/72276 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 145 Reihe Ökonomie Economics Series Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level Peter Egger, Michael Pfaffermayr, Andrea Weber 145 Reihe Ökonomie Economics Series Sectoral Adjustment of Employment: The Impact of Outsourcing and Trade at the Micro Level Peter Egger, Michael Pfaffermayr, Andrea Weber November 2003 Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS), Wien Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Contact: Peter Egger Department of Economics University of Innsbruck Universitätsstrasse 15 6020 Innsbruck, Austria email: [email protected] Michael Pfaffermayr Department of Economics University of Innsbruck Universitätsstrasse 15 6020 Innsbruck, Austria email: [email protected] Andrea Weber Department of Economics and Finance Institute for Advanced Studies Stumpergasse 56 1060 Vienna, Austria : +43/1/599 91-147 fax: +43/1/599 91-163 email: [email protected] Founded in 1963 by two prominent Austrians living in exile – the sociologist Paul F. Lazarsfeld and the economist Oskar Morgenstern – with the financial support from the Ford Foundation, the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education and the City of Vienna, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) is the first institution for postgraduate education and research in economics and the social sciences in Austria. The Economics Series presents research done at the Department of Economics and Finance and aims to share “work in progress” in a timely way before formal publication. As usual, authors bear full responsibility for the content of their contributions. Das Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) wurde im Jahr 1963 von zwei prominenten Exilösterreichern – dem Soziologen Paul F. Lazarsfeld und dem Ökonomen Oskar Morgenstern – mit Hilfe der Ford- Stiftung, des Österreichischen Bundesministeriums für Unterricht und der Stadt Wien gegründet und ist somit die erste nachuniversitäre Lehr- und Forschungsstätte für die Sozial- und Wirtschafts- wissenschaften in Österreich. Die Reihe Ökonomie bietet Einblick in die Forschungsarbeit der Abteilung für Ökonomie und Finanzwirtschaft und verfolgt das Ziel, abteilungsinterne Diskussionsbeiträge einer breiteren fachinternen Öffentlichkeit zugänglich zu machen. Die inhaltliche Verantwortung für die veröffentlichten Beiträge liegt bei den Autoren und Autorinnen. Abstract This paper analyzes the effects of trade and outsourcing on the transition probabilities of employment between sectors, using a dynamic multinomial logit framework with fixed effects. The data contain individual Austrian male workers over the period 1988-2001. Our results strongly support the view that international economic forces are important determinants of labor market turnover. Increases in imports, terms of trade and, especially, in the outsourcing share negatively affect the probability of staying in or changing into the manufacturing sector, even more so for industries with a comparative disadvantage. Keywords Labor market turnover, outsourcing, dynamic discrete choice, fixed effects panel estimation JEL Classification F16, J63, C23, C25 Comments Peter Egger thanks Rudolf Winter-Ebmer and workshop participants in Innsbruck for valuable comments. Contents 1 Introductions 1 2 A model for individual labor market transitions 3 3 Econometric estimation approach 7 4 Data 9 5 Empirical implementation and results 10 6 Conclusion 13 References 14 Appendix A 17 Appendix B 18 Figure 19 Tables 20 ½ ÁÒØÖÓ ÙØ ÓÒ Ì ÑÔØ Ó ÒÖ×Ò ØÖ ÚÓÐÙÑ× Ò ÒØÒ׬ ÓÖÒ ÓÑÔ ØØÓÒ ÓÒ Ø Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ × Ò Ó ÖÓÛÒ ÓÒÖÒ Ò Ø Ð×Ø ÝÖ׺ ÁÒØÖÒØÓÒÐ ØÖ ØÓÖÝ ×Ù×Ø× ØØ ÑÔ ÓÖØ ÓÑÔ ØØÓÒ ´ÏÓÓ¸ ½µ Ò¸ ×Ô ÐÐݸ ÒØÖÒØÓÒÐ ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ ´Ò×ØÖ Ò ÀÒ×ÓÒ¸ ½µ ÙÖØ ÙÒ×ÐÐ ÛÓÖÖ× ÝÐÓÛÖÒ ØÖ ÖÐØÚÛ׺ ÃÖÙÑÒ ´½µ¸ ÑÔ×Þ× ØØ Ø ÓÑÔ Ó¹ ×ØÓÒ Ó ÓÓ× ØÖ¸ ÖØÖ ØÒ Ø ÚÓÐÙÑ Ó ØÖ ÑØØÖ׺ ÁÒ ÔÖØÙÐÖ¸ ×ÓÛ× ØØ Ø Ö Ó ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ Ñ×ÙÖ Ý Ø ×Ö Ó ÒØÖÑØ Ó Ó × ØÖ ÔÖÓ Ù× ÚÖ× Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ÖØÓÒ׺ ÀÓÛÚÖ¸ Ø× ÓÒÐÙ¹ ×ÓÒ× Ö × ÓÒ ×ØØ ÒÖÐ ÕÙÐÖÙÑ ÑÓ Ð× Û ÔØÙÖ ÐÓÒ ÖÙÒ «Ø׺ Ì ÓÖÖ×Ô ÓÒÒ ×ÓÖØ ÖÙÒ ØÖÒ×ØÓÖÝ ÝÒÑ× Ö Ð×× ÙÒÖ×ØÓ Ó ÙØ Ñ ÓÖ Ö×Ö ØÓÔ Ò Ð ÓÖ ÓÒÓÑ׺ ÀÖ¸ Ø ÒØÙÖ Ó Ù×ØÑÒØ ÔÖÓ ××× Ò Ø Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ÒÙ Ý ÒÖ×Ò ØÖ ÚÓÐÙÑ× × Ó ÔÖع ÙÐÖ ÒØÖ×غ Ø Ø ÒÚÙÐ ÐÚÐ Ø ØÖ ÖÐØ ×Ó × ÑÝ Ð ØÓ Ó ÐÓ××׺ ËÒ Ø ÜÔ ÖÒ Ó ÙÒÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ ÜØ× Ô Ö××ØÒØ «Ø× Ù ØÓ ÙÑÒ ÔØÐ ÐÓ×׸ Ø Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ Ù×ØÑÒØ ÔÖÓ ××× ÑÝ ÐÝ ÓÖ ÚÒ ÔÖÚÒغ ÁÒ Ø× × Ø × ÒÓØ ÆØØÓÒÚ×ØØ Ø ÐÓÒ ÖÙÒ Û «Ø× ÓÒÐÝ ÙØ Ø ×ÓÖØ ÖÙÒ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ ÔÖÓÐØ× Ö Ó ÔÖØÙÐÖ ÒØÖ×غ ÑÔÖÐ Ö×Ö ÓÒ ×ÓÖØ ÖÙÒ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ÝÒÑ× × ÓÐÐÓÛ ØÛÓ ÖÓÙØ× ´× ÃÐÒ Ø Ðº¸ ¾¼¼¿¸ ÓÖ Ò ÓÚÖÚÛµº ÇÒ ×ØÖÒ Ó Ø ÐØÖØÙÖ ××××× Ø ÑÔØ Ó ØÖ¹ÖÐØ ÚÖÐ׸ ÑÓ×Ø ÔÖÓÑÒÒØÐÝ Ø ÖÐ ÜÒ Öظ ÓÒ Ø ÐÚÐ× ÓÖ Ò× Ò ÒØ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ø Ò ÖØ ÐÚк ÖÐÝ Ö×Ö ÐÓ Ó× Ø Ø ÓÒ×ÕÙÒ× Ó ÖÐ ÔÔÖØÓÒ Ó Ø ÍË ° ÓÒ Ø ÍË Ð ÓÖ ½ ÑÖØ ´ÖÓ××ÑÒ¸ ½ ÊÚÒ¸ ½¾µº ÅÓ×Ø Ó Ø ÚÐÐ Ö×ÙÐØ× Ô ÓÒØ ØÓ ÒØÚ ÑÔØ Ó Ò ÜÒ ÖØ ÔÔÖØÓÒ ÓÒ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ò Û׺ Ì ×ÓÒ ×ØÖÒ Ó Ø ÐØÖØÙÖ ÒÚ×ØØ× Ø ÓÒ×ÕÙÒ× Ó ÒÖ×Ò ØÖ ÚÓÐÙÑ× ÓÒ ÖÓ×× ­ÓÛ× Ó Ó× ÓÖ ÛÓÖÖ׺ ÈÖÓÑÒÒØ ÜÑÔÐ× Ó Ó ­ÓÛ ×ØÙ× ÓÑÔÖ× Ú× Ø Ðº ´½µ¸ ÓÙÖÒ× ´½µ Ò ÃÐÒ Ø Ðº ´¾¼¼¿µ¸ ÛÓ ÐÓ Ó Ø Ó ÖØÓÒ Ò Ó ×ØÖÙØÓÒº ÌÖ ¬ÒÒ× ÒØ ØØ Ò ÑÔØ Ó ÒØÖÒØÓÒÐ ØÓÖ× ÓÒ Ó ­ÓÛ× × Ö ØÓ Øظ ×Ô ¬ÐÐÝ ÐÓÛ ÖÕÙÒÝ Ø Ö Ù׺ ÁÒ ÓÒØÖ×ظ Ø ÛÓÖÖ ­ÓÛ ÔÔÖÓ×Ø ÚÒØ Ó ÒØÝÒ Ø ÑÔØ Ó ÒØÖÒØÓÒÐ ØÓÖ× ÓÒ ÖÓ×× Ð ÓÖ ­ÓÛ× Ø ÑÓÖ ÙÒÑÒØÐ ÐÚÐ ººº ØÒ Ó ­ÓÛ× ´ÃÐÒ Ø Ðº¸ ¾¼¼¿¸ Ôº ¾¾µº ÓÐ Ö Ø Ðº ´½µ Ò ÃÐØÞÖ ´¾¼¼¾µ Ö Ø ÖÐ×Ø ÜÑÔÐ× ÓÐÐÓÛÒ ½ ÙÖ×× Ò ÃÒØØÖ ´½µ ÛÖ Ø ¬Ö×Ø Ò ××××Ò Ø× «Ø Ò ÐÖÖ ÖÓ××¹×ØÓÒ Ó ÓÙÒØÖ× ´Ø ¹µº ÅÓÖ ÖÒØ ×ØÙ× Ö ÑÔ Ò ÓÐ Ö ´¾¼¼½µ Ò ÓÐ Ö Ò ÌÖÝ ´¾¼¼½µº ½ Ø× ÔÔÖÓ¸ ÓÒÒØÖØÒ ÓÒ ÍË Ø ØÖÓÙÓÙغ ÓÐ Ö Ø Ðº ´½µ ¬Ò ØØ Ò ÜÒ ÖØ ÔÔÖØÓÒ «Ø× Ø ÔÖÓÐØÝ Ó ÐÓ×Ò Ó× ÛÖ× ÔÖØÓÒ Ó × ÒÓغ ×ØÒÙ×Ò ØÛÒ ÜÔ ÓÖØ Ò ÑÔ ÓÖØ ÜÒ ÖØ× ØÝ ×ÓÛ ØØ Ò ÔÔÖØÓÒ Ó Ø ÜÔ ÓÖØ ÜÒ ÖØ × ××Ó Ø ÛØ ÐÓÛÖ ÐÐÓ Ó Ó ÒÒ Ó׸ ÛÖ× Ò ÑÔ ÓÖØ ÜÒ ÖØ ÔÔÖØÓÒ ØÒ× ØÓ ÒÖ× Ø× ÐÐÓ Ó º ÃÐØÞÖ ´¾¼¼¼¸ ¾¼¼¾µ ¬Ò× ØØ Ö ÜÔ ÓÖØ ×Ð× ÖÙ ×ÔÐÑÒØ ÖØ׸ ÙØ ÑÔ ÓÖØ ÓÑÔ ØØÓÒ Ó × ÒÓØ ×Ñ ØÓ «Ø ×ÔÐÑÒØ ÖØ× ×Ò¬ÒØÐݺ Ì ÔÖ×ÒØ ÔÔ Ö Ø× ÐÓ×Ö ÐÓ Ó Ø Ø ÑÔØ Ó ØÖ ÓÒ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ò ÛÓÖÖ ­ÓÛ ÔÔÖÓ Ò ÓÒÒØÖØ× ÓÒ Ø ×ÓÖØ ÖÙÒ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ý¹ ÒÑ׺ Í×Ò ØÐ Ø× Ó ÒÚÙÐ Ù×ØÖÒ ÑÐ ÛÓÖÖ× ÓÚÖ Ø ÔÖÓ ½¹¾¼¼½¸ Û ÒÚ×ØØ ÛØÖ Ò ÓÛ ÖÓÛØ Ò ÓÓ× ÑÔ ÓÖØ׸ ÜÔ ÓÖØ׸ ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ¸ Ò ØÒÐ Ò «Ø ÒÚÙÐ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ ÔÖÓ¹ ÐØ× ØÛÒ ×Ü «ÖÒØ ×ØØ× Ó ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ò ÙÒÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ»ÓÙØ Ó Ð ÓÖ ÓÖº Ù×ØÖ × ÔÖÑ ÜÑÔÐ ÓÖ ×ØÙÝÒ Ø ÑÔØ Ó ØÖ Ð ÖÐÞØÓÒ ÖÓÑ Ø ÙÖÓÔ Ò Ô Ö×Ô ØÚ ´ÒÖ Ø Ðº¸ ½ ÀÓÖ Ò ÀÙ Ö¸ ¾¼¼¿µº Ù ØÓ Ø ÓÔ ÒÒ ÙÔ Ó ×ØÖÒ ÙÖÓÔ Û Ó×ÖÚ ÑÖ ÒÖ× Ò ØÖ Ò ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ ÚÓÐÙÑ× ÙÖÒ Ø Ð×Ø º ÁÒ ØÓÒ Ø Ù×ØÖÒ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ × ÖØÖÞ Ý ÐÝ ÒØÖÐÞ Û ÖÒÒº ÚÒ Ø× ÖÙÑ×ØÒ× Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ØÙÖÒÓÚÖ × Ø ÑÒ ÒÒÐ Ó Ù×ØÑÒØ ØÓ ÜØÖÒÐ ÒÙ×ØÖÝ ×Ô ¬ ×Ó ×º Ì ÓÒØÖÙØÓÒ Ó Ø× ÔÔ Ö × ØÛÓÓк Ö×ظ Ò ÓÒØÖ×Ø ØÓ Ø ÔÖÚÓÙ× ÐØÖØÙÖ¸ Û ÓÒÒØÖØ ÓÒ Ø ÑÔØ ÓÒ Ó ÐÓ×× ÓÖ ×ÔÐÑÒØ ÖØ× ÑÓ×ØÐÝ Ò ÖÓ×× ×ØÓÒ¸ Û ÓÖÑÙÐØ ÑÓÖ ÓÒ× ÑÓ Ð¸ Û Ð×Ó ÒÓÖ¹ Ô ÓÖØ× Ø ÐÓÒØÙÒÐ ÑÒ×ÓÒº ÁÒ Ø× ×ØÙÔ Ø × Ô Ó××Ð ØÓ ÑÓ Ð Ø ÙÐÐ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ ÑØÖÜ ØÛÒ ×ØØ×»×ØÓÖ׺ ÙÖØÖÑÓÖ¸ Û Ö Ð ØÓ ×××× Ø ÑÔØ Ó ÒØÖÒØÓÒÐ ØÖ Ò ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ ÓÒ Ó ÖØÓÒ Ò Ø ÑÒÙ¹ ØÙÖÒ ×ØÓÖ¸ ÓÒØÖÓÐÐÒ ÓÖ ÙÒÓ×ÖÚ ÒÚÙÐ ÖØÖ×Ø× Ó ÛÓÖÖ׺ ÌÖÝ Û ×ØÒÙ× ØÛÒ ÓÑÔÖØÚ ÚÒØ ´µÑÒÙØÙÖÒ ÒÙ×ØÖ× Ò ØÓ× ÛØ ÓÑÔÖØÚ ×ÚÒØ ´µº Ì ÒÚÙÐ Ô Ö×Ô ØÚ × ×Ô ÐÐÝ ÑÔ ÓÖØÒظ ×Ò ØÖ ×ÔÐ ÛÓÖÖ× ÑÝ «Ö Ò ØÖÑ× Ó ØÖ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ Ù×ØÑÒØ ÔØØÖÒ׺ ÃÐØÞÖ ´¾¼¼¼¸ Ôº ¾ µ ÖÙ× ØØ Ø ×ÓÙÖ Ó Ø ÆÝ × ØÖ ÓØÖÛ× ×ÚÒØ ÖØÖ×¹ Ø׸ ÒÓØ Ø ÖØÖ×Ø× Ó Ø ×ÔÐÑÒØ ÒÙ×ØÖݺ Ì ×ØÑØÓÒ Ó Ø ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ ÑØÖÜ ØÛÒ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ×ØØ× Ð× ØÓ ÝÒÑ ÑÙÐع ÒÓÑÐ ÐÓØ ÑÓ Ð¸ ÓÖ Û ÀÓÒÓÖ Ò ÃÝÖÞÓÙ ´¾¼¼¼µ ÔÖÓÔ Ó× ¬Ü «Ø× ×ØÑØÓÖº ÏØ Ø× ×ØÑØÓÒ ÑØÓ ÓÐÓÝ Ø × Ô Ó××Ð ÖÙ Ø ¾ × ÖÓÑ ÙÒÓ×ÖÚÐ ÒÚÙÐ ×Ô ¬ Ò­ÙÒ× ´Ð ÐØݵ¸ ÔÖØ Ó Û ÑÝ ×ØØ ×Ô ¬º ËÓÒ¸ Û Ó«Ö ÒÖÐÞØÓÒ Ó Ø ÀÓÒÓÖ ÃÝÖÞÓÙ ×ØÑØÓÒ ÔÖÓ ÙÖ Ý ÐÐÓÛÒ ÓÖ ØÖÓÒÓÙ× «Ø× Ó Ø ÜÔÐÒØÓÖÝ ÚÖÐ× Ô ÒÒ ÓÒ Ø ×ØØ Ó ÓÖÒº ÏØ Ø× ÑÓÖ ÒÖÐ ÑÓ Ð Û Ò ÒÚ×ØØ ÛØÖ Ø ÑÔØ Ó ØÖ ÓÒ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ× Ô Ò× ÓÒ Ø ÔÖÚÓÙ× Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ×Øغ ¾ ÑÓ Ð ÓÖ Ò Ú ÙÐ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖ Ø ØÖÒ× Ø ÓÒ× Ï ÑÓ Ð ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ù×ØÑÒØÝ ÒÚÙÐ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ׺ Ì Ñ × ØÓ ×ØÑØ Ø ÑÔØ Ó ÓÙØ×ÓÙÖÒ Ò ØÖ ÓÒ ØÓ× ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ׺ ÁÒ ÓÙÖ ÑÓ Ð¸ Û ÓÒ×Ö ÖØ ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ× ØÛÒ ÒÙ×ØÖÝ ×ØÓÖ× × ÛÐÐ × ØÖÒ×ØÓÒ× Û Ø ÙÒÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ ÓÖ ÓÙØ Ó Ð ÓÖ ÓÖ × Ò ÒØÖÑØ ×ØÔº ÌÖÓÖ Û ×ØÒÙ× ØÛÒ «ÖÒØ Ð ÓÖ ÑÖØ ×ØØ× ¯ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ò Ø ×ÖÚ ×ØÓÖ ¯ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ Ò ×Ð× ×ØÓÖ ¯ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØÒÑÒÙØÙÖÒ ×ØÓÖ ¯ ÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØÒ ÑÒÙØÙÖÒ ×ØÓÖ ¯ ÙÒÑÔÐÓÝÑÒØ ¯ ÓÙØ Ó Ð ÓÖ ÓÖº ÓÑÔÖØÚ ÚÒØ × ¬Ò ÓÖÒ ØÓ Ø
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