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Long Cycles: a Bridge Between Past and Futures Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D. Lecturer Răzvan Grigoras, Ph.D
6th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) – Future in the Making Brussels, 4-5 June 2018 Long Cycles: A Bridge between Past and Futures Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D. National University of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, e-mail: [email protected] Lecturer R ăzvan Grigoras, Ph.D. National Defence University “Carol I”, Bucharest, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract Developing an anti-fragile behaviour by enhancing foresight capacity is a mandatory asset in the risk society. Cycles of continuity and change are preferred topics in the fields of history, economics, and international relations. Although centred on the past, the long cycles theory in general, and George Modelski's model in particular, might offer valuable insights into probable futures that might be involved in the planning practice of international actors. By identifying recurring historical patterns, one could extrapolate future developments. However, the key assumption of the paper is that possible novel developments are bound to be influenced by a series of drivers, both trends and wild cards. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the predictive capacity of the long cycle theory by using future study methodologies. The present paper attempts to suggest some ways for doing that in a two-step progressive method. The first step is to identify the most important drivers that could trigger deviations from the extrapolation of historical patterns identified by the long cycles theory and to quantify the expected shifts in the distribution power by using four indexes: the Foreign Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index, the Global Power Index (GPI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the State of the Future Index (SOFI). -
Archons (Commanders) [NOTICE: They Are NOT Anlien Parasites], and Then, in a Mirror Image of the Great Emanations of the Pleroma, Hundreds of Lesser Angels
A R C H O N S HIDDEN RULERS THROUGH THE AGES A R C H O N S HIDDEN RULERS THROUGH THE AGES WATCH THIS IMPORTANT VIDEO UFOs, Aliens, and the Question of Contact MUST-SEE THE OCCULT REASON FOR PSYCHOPATHY Organic Portals: Aliens and Psychopaths KNOWLEDGE THROUGH GNOSIS Boris Mouravieff - GNOSIS IN THE BEGINNING ...1 The Gnostic core belief was a strong dualism: that the world of matter was deadening and inferior to a remote nonphysical home, to which an interior divine spark in most humans aspired to return after death. This led them to an absorption with the Jewish creation myths in Genesis, which they obsessively reinterpreted to formulate allegorical explanations of how humans ended up trapped in the world of matter. The basic Gnostic story, which varied in details from teacher to teacher, was this: In the beginning there was an unknowable, immaterial, and invisible God, sometimes called the Father of All and sometimes by other names. “He” was neither male nor female, and was composed of an implicitly finite amount of a living nonphysical substance. Surrounding this God was a great empty region called the Pleroma (the fullness). Beyond the Pleroma lay empty space. The God acted to fill the Pleroma through a series of emanations, a squeezing off of small portions of his/its nonphysical energetic divine material. In most accounts there are thirty emanations in fifteen complementary pairs, each getting slightly less of the divine material and therefore being slightly weaker. The emanations are called Aeons (eternities) and are mostly named personifications in Greek of abstract ideas. -
Reposturing the Force V
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT PAPERS 26 N A Reposturing the Force V AL U.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century W AR COLLEGE NE WPOR T P AP ERS N ES AV T A A L T W S A D R E C T I O N L L U E E G H E T R I VI IBU OR A S CT MARI VI 26 Carnes Lord, Editor Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Cover Preparations for evening flight operations on board the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) in March 2005. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate Airman Ryan O’Connor. T:\Academic\Newport Papers\Newport Paper Lord\Ventura\NPLord.vp Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:14:03 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Reposturing the Force U.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century Carnes Lord, Editor NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Newport, Rhode Island T:\Academic\Newport Papers\Newport Paper Lord\Ventura\NPLord.vp Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:14:13 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Naval War College The Newport Papers are extended research projects that the Newport, Rhode Island Editor, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the Center for Naval Warfare Studies President of the Naval War College consider of particular Newport Paper Twenty-six interest to policy makers, scholars, and analysts. February 2006 The views expressed in the Newport Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the President, Naval War College Naval War College or the Department of the Navy. -
Theories of War and Peace
1 THEORIES OF WAR AND PEACE POLI SCI 631 Rutgers University Fall 2018 Jack S. Levy [email protected] http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/levy/ Office Hours: Hickman Hall #304, Tuesday after class and by appointment "War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied." Sun Tzu, The Art of War In this seminar we undertake a comprehensive review of the theoretical and empirical literature on interstate war, focusing primarily on the causes of war and the conditions of peace but giving some attention to the conduct and termination of war. We emphasize research in political science but include some coverage of work in other disciplines. We examine the leading theories, their key causal variables, the paths or mechanisms through which those variables lead to war or to peace, and the degree of empirical support for various theories. Our survey includes research utilizing a variety of methodological approaches: qualitative, quantitative, experimental, formal, and experimental. Our primary focus, however, is on the logical coherence and analytic limitations of the theories and the kinds of research designs that might be useful in testing them. The seminar is designed primarily for graduate students who want to understand – and ultimately contribute to – the theoretical and empirical literature in political science on war, peace, and security. Students with different interests and students from other departments can also benefit from the seminar and are also welcome. Ideally, members of the seminar will have some familiarity with basic issues in international relations theory, philosophy of science, research design, and statistical methods. -
Global Strategy Amidst the Globe's Cultures
Global strategy amidst the globe’s cultures: Cultures in individual cognition, states and the global system Nicholas D. Wright – v1 September 2019 – The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Department of Defense Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment Group, and requested by the Joint Staff J-39 in collaboration with USEUCOM, USINDOPACOM, USCENTCOM, USSOCOM, the Services, Department of Homeland Security, Department of State, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Further information may be obtained from Intelligent Biology (www.intelligentbiology.co.uk). A FAMILY OF PRODUCTS TO CREATE INFLUENCE This report is part of a coherent family of products that together provide a framework for successful influence across the spectrum of competition, including the Grey Zone. All are available from www.intelligentbiology.co.uk.They include: Principles of Grey Zone influence: • Wright, ND (2019) From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone, Intelligent Biology. Outer space competition: • Wright, ND (2019) MindSpace: Cognition in space operations, Intelligent Biology. • Ed. Wright, ND (2018) Outer Space; Earthly Escalation? Chinese Perspectives on Space Operations and Escalation, U.S. Dept. of Defense Joint Staff. North Korea and Grey Zone competition: • Wright, ND (2018) Getting Messages Through: The cognition of influence with North Korea and East Asia, Intelligent Biology. Artificial Intelligence in the global competition for influence: • Ed. Wright ND, (2018) AI, China, Russia and the Global Order: Technological, Political, Global, and Creative Perspectives, U.S. Dept. of Defense Joint Staff. About the author Dr Nicholas Wright is affiliated with Georgetown University, University College London (UCL), Intelligent Biology and New America. -
An Interpretation of Matthew 24-25
Scholars Crossing Article Archives Pre-Trib Research Center May 2009 An Interpretation of Matthew 24-25 Thomas D. Ice Liberty University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/pretrib_arch Recommended Citation Ice, Thomas D., "An Interpretation of Matthew 24-25" (2009). Article Archives. 2. https://digitalcommons.liberty.edu/pretrib_arch/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Pre-Trib Research Center at Scholars Crossing. It has been accepted for inclusion in Article Archives by an authorized administrator of Scholars Crossing. For more information, please contact [email protected]. An Interpretation of Matthew 24—25 Part I by Thomas Ice The Olivet Discourse, delivered shortly before Jesus’ crucifixion, is the most important single passage of prophecy in all the Bible. It is significant because it came from Jesus Himself immediately after He was rejected by His own people and because it provides the master outline of end-time events. —Dr. Tim LaHaye1 The Olivet Discourse is an important passage for the development of anyone's view of Bible prophecy. The Olivet Discourse is made up of our Lord's teaching on Bible prophecy that is found in Matthew 24—25, Mark 13 and Luke 21. Since one’s interpretation of the Olivet Discourse greatly impacts whether they are a premillennialist or anti-millennialist, futurist or preterist, or pretribulationists or posttribulationist, I will be attempting an extensive interpretation of Matthew 24—25. THE CONTEXTUAL SETTING FOR CHRIST’S DISCOURSE The setting for the Olivet Discourse, at least for Matthew’s account, is found in preceding events leading up to Matthew 24. -
Global Civil War and Post-Colonial Studies
Global Civil War and Post-colonial Studies Globalization Working Papers 06/3 May 2006 WORKING PAPER SERIES Heike Härting Université de Montréal GLOBALIZATION AND AUTONOMY MONDIALISATION ET AUTONOMIE www.globalautonomy.ca PREFACE Professor Heike Härting has engaged in a program of research focused on the relationship be- tween globalization and violence and how violence has tended to be rendered "normal" or "expected" in a globalizing world. This paper is part of this research program and begins with the concept of "global civil war" presented by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri in their recent joint work. Professor Härting argues that their conception is too limited because it fails to take adequate account of the rootedness of such war in long-standing power relations of imperialism and colonial modernity. By failing to take these linkages into account, dominant, more wealthy countries can take a position of bringing civiliza- tion to the unruly and violent practices of so-called rogue states or other failing states. Such a position, she argues, verges on hypocrisy because the very problems faced in these parts of the world are linked intimately to the violence and racialization characteristic of imperialism and colonialism that formed these states in the first place. In bringing post-colonial theory to bear upon these questions, Professor Härting also makes reference to literary works focused on the civil war in Sri Lanka by Michael On- daatje and Jean Arasanayagam. The paper finishes up with some thoughts on why we are constantly faced with assumed permanent emergencies, a state of being even more pronounced since the declara- tion of war on "global terror" after the events of 11 September 2001. -
The Full 100+ Page Pdf!
2014 was a unique year for pro-wrestling, one that will undoubtedly be viewed as historically significant in years to follow. Whether it is to be reflected upon positively or negatively is not only highly subjective, but also context-specific with major occurrences transpiring across the pro-wrestling world over the last 12 months, each with its own strong, and at times far reaching, consequences. The WWE launched its much awaited Network, New Japan continued to expand, CMLL booked lucha's biggest match in well over a decade, culminating in the country's first million dollar gate, TNA teetered more precariously on the brink of death than perhaps ever before, Daniel Bryan won the WWE's top prize, Dragon Gate and DDT saw continued success before their loyal niche audiences, Alberto Del Rio and CM Punk departed the WWE with one ending up in the most unexpected of places, a developing and divergent style produced some of the best indie matches of the year, the European scene flourished, the Shield disbanded, Batista returned, Daniel Bryan relinquished his championship, and the Undertaker's streak came to an unexpected and dramatic end. These are but some of the happenings, which made 2014 the year that it was, and it is in this year-book that we look to not only recap all of these events and more, but also contemplate their relevance to the greater pro-wrestling landscape, both for 2015 and beyond. It should be stated that this year-book was inspired by the DKP Annuals that were released in 2011 and 2012, in fact, it was the absence of a 2013 annual that inspired us to produce a year-book for 2014. -
The Civil Wars of the 20Th and 21St Century: Global War As Seen from Mozambique
The civil wars of the 20th and 21st century: Global war as seen from Mozambique Bjørn Enge Bertelsen Dept. of social anthropology University of Bergen, Norway [email protected] Paper to be presented at the panel “Guerra Civil em Moçambique” at the conference “V conferência internacional do IESE: Desafios da investigação social e económica en tempos de crise”, 19-21 September 2017, Maputo. DRAFT – PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION Abstract What one can label the civil wars of the 20th and 21st century in Mozambique – with particular periods of intensity from 1976 to 1992 and from 2013 until now – have profoundly shaped the post-independence era in terms of socio-economic trajectories, political subjectivities, troubling legacies and memories, regional divisions, and much more. What can such a protracted period of recurring instances of civil war learn us about war in general – at a global level? How can the harrowing experiences of violence and suffering instantiated on Mozambican soil inform our comprehension of war in a global age of permanent violent clashes, of omnipresent militarism and of an increasingly belligerent state form? Rather than insularizing or exceptionalizing the Mozambican civil wars – by way of emphasising local and purely national dynamics or by way of labelling or typologizing these in terms of macroeconomic or political schemata conforming to certain preconceived ideas of wars and unrest in the global South – I will in this paper attempt to draw on my own ethnographic material from Manica province as well as other analyses to answer such questions. The overall aim of the paper will then be to use the available material on the civil wars in Mozambique as a prism for analysing, understanding and redefining the nature of contemporary global war and political-military dynamics more generally. -
Ring of Honor Tickets
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History 21 (In Honor of the 21 Cities in Anoka County) Is Published by the Anoka County Historical Society Six Times Yearly As a Member Benefit
ISTORY 21 HVolume 47 No.4 July-August 2017 Shorter than route 66 but closer to home. AnokaCountyHistory.org History 21 (in honor of the 21 cities in Anoka County) is published by the Anoka County Historical Society six times yearly as a member benefit. The ACHS is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Contributions are tax-deductible within the allowable limits of the law. Board of Directors District 1: Al Pearson District 2: Bill Nelson District 3: Orville Lindquist (President) Table of Contents: District 4: Lotus Hubbard District 5: Kate Morphew 3 - Letters from the ACHS District 6: Mary Capra President and Director District 7: Bart Ward At-Large A: Steven Florman 4 - Columbia Heights Garden Club At-Large B: Dennis Berg (Vice-President) 8 - Collections Corner: At-Large C: Mike Scott Making Artifact Mounts At-Large D: Dick Lang At-Large E: Buzz Netkow 10 - Undiscovered: At-Large F: Paul Pierce (Secretary) Research Library Gems At-Large G: Shelly Peterson (Treasurer) At-Large H: Harvey Greenberg 11 - Murder Mystery Dinners– mark Ex-Officio: Bill Erhart your calendar County Commissioner Liaison: Jim Kordiak 12 - Volunteer World: Shhhhh History People are Fun! Staff Rebecca Ebnet-Mavencamp 14 - Thank You to Our (Executive Director) Supporters Sara Given (Volunteer Coordinator) Audra Hilse (Archivist & Administrator) 15 - Upcoming Events Gail Dahl (Office Staff) Carol Dordan (Office Staff) Don Johnson (Office Staff) Front Cover: Unidentified boys in the back of a truck during an Anoka Parade. Undated. Object ID#: 2016.0173.003 2 From the President One of my favorite recollections in Anoka County is the most fleeting. -
How Does Hip Hop Serve As a Catalyst for Collective
Smith ScholarWorks Theses, Dissertations, and Projects 2016 How does hip hop serve as a catalyst for collective resistance : "Fight the power"- a beats, rhymes, and life approach : a project based upon an investigation at Beats, Rhymes and Life Maria Camila Camacho Smith College Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.smith.edu/theses Part of the Social Work Commons Recommended Citation Camacho, Maria Camila, "How does hip hop serve as a catalyst for collective resistance : "Fight the power"- a beats, rhymes, and life approach : a project based upon an investigation at Beats, Rhymes and Life" (2016). Masters Thesis, Smith College, Northampton, MA. https://scholarworks.smith.edu/theses/1715 This Masters Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations, and Projects by an authorized administrator of Smith ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Maria Camila Camacho Garrido How Does Hip Hop Serve as a Catalyst for Collective Resistance? “Fight the Power” – a Beats, Rhymes, & Life Approach ABSTRACT This qualitative study explores what elements of social justice, Hip Hop, and therapy the Oakland, California based agency Beats, Rhymes, & Life, Inc. (BRL) engages in to ignite Collective Resistance among its members, youth, and the outside community. The study utilized a mix of both narrative and phenomenological approaches throughout. In total, twelve participants were interviewed, however, only six participants were included for the purpose of this research and ranged from teaching artists, clinicians, community members, and leaders of BRL. Each participant was asked a series of questions regarding (1) Hip Hop, (2) Oppression and Power, and (3) Collective Resistance along with exploring the role BRL plays throughout those spaces.