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Vaccine Rollout and Loosened Restrictions Bolster Recovery Hopes for NYC Retail Market

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Vaccine Rollout and Loosened Restrictions Bolster Recovery Hopes for NYC Retail Market MARKETVIEW Manhattan Retail, Q1 2021 Vaccine rollout and loosened restrictions bolster recovery hopes for NYC retail market Consumer Confidence NYC Unemployment NYC Quarterly Retail Sales NYC Retail Job Count 109.7 12.9% $36.4B 285.2K *Arrows indicate change from previous quarter. Sources: The Conference Board, March 2021; NYS Department of Labor, February 2021; U.S. Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, March 2021; NYS Department of Labor, February 2021. MARKET OVERVIEW • New York City officially expanded Phase Four of reopening with the resumption of indoor dining, The Manhattan retail market continued to suffer the permanent implementation of the outdoor the impacts of COVID-19 in the first quarter of dining program, and the reopening of theaters 2021, with all market metrics continuing negative and indoor entertainment venues in Manhattan trends. Leasing velocity in Manhattan decelerated with limited capacity. In tandem with New Jersey, again in the first quarter of 2021, marking seven the maximum capacity of indoor diners in New consecutive quarters of decline. Additionally, the York State was expanded to 75% of occupancy on number of direct, ground-floor availabilities in Q1 March 19; however, capacity in New York City 2021 increased to 275 spaces in the 16 prime retail remains limited to 50%.1 corridors tracked by CBRE. The average retail asking rent in Manhattan’s prime 16 retail • Governor Cuomo signed into law the New York corridors dropped 13.4% year-over-year and 5.1% State COVID-19 Emergency Protect our quarter-over-quarter to $618 per sq. ft. in Q1 2021, Businesses Act of 2021 on March 9. The law marking the 14th consecutive quarterly decrease. encompasses extending eviction and foreclosure relief for commercial tenants with less than 50 A few bright spots emerged as major luxury employees and retailers that own less than 10 tenants such as Gucci, Cartier, Polene, and TUMI commercial units in the city through May 1, announced a flurry of new leases and renewals in 2021.2 the city’s high-end retail neighborhoods. • The New York City Council voted to amend Local Opportunistic retailers continue to take advantage Law 98 of 2020, which was introduced last of the tenant-favorable market conditions, September to prohibit retail tenants from successfully negotiating enhanced tenant executing the personal liability clauses of improvement allowance, free rent, flexibility on commercial leases if they default on any money term length, and percentage-rent deal structures. owed between the period of March 7, 2020 to Looking ahead, there is cause for optimism as March 31, 2021. The amendment extended the residential vacancy rates decline in NYC, defaulting period through June 30.3 vaccination efforts accelerate throughout the region, Q1 2021 CBRE Research © 2021 CBRE, Inc. 1 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL and additional federal stimulus gives households Looking ahead, the massive $1.9 trillion federal more spending power – all of which should stimulus will provide households with an influx reinvigorate in-store spending in Manhattan in the cash to put toward consumer spending. This will months ahead. coincide with a critical mass of vaccinations in the local market, which will boost spending at bricks- ECONOMIC OVERVIEW and-mortar retail and entertainment venues in NYC. The outlook for the U.S. economy is becoming positive as COVID-19 vaccines are deployed at a Figure 1: Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment rapid pace. At the close of Q1 2021, one-third of Americans had received at least one dose of the 5,000 4,685 vaccine. With the pace of daily vaccinations 4,800 accelerating and the eligibility timeline for all 4,600 4,400 Americans moving up to April 19, societal and 4,077 4,200 economic normalization is expected by mid-year, 4,000 3,712 setting the stage for the U.S. economy to see nearly 3,800 3,555 7% GDP growth in 2021—the strongest pace seen 3,600 3,400 since the early 1980s. All employees (thousands) 3,200 3,000 In NYC, employment continues to increase. Renewed growth in January and February—driven by the leisure, hospitality, and retail trade Source: NYC Department of Labor, February 2021 sectors—pushed total private sector employment up to 3.48 million, approximately 15% below the pre-COVID-19 high point. Figure 2: NYC Total Retail Sales | Annual Similarly, NYC’s quarterly retail sales continue to $160 $137 improve, rising roughly 3.4% to $36.4 billion in $140 the first quarter. While total employment and $120 retail job count remain below levels recorded a $100 $83 year ago, about 53,000 jobs have been recovered $80 from the 239,000 jobs lost due to the pandemic, of Billions $USD $60 with business and professional services and $40 advertising, media, and telecom sectors seeing the $20 most notable early gains. By the end of February $0 2021, OUE was at 1.63 million, about 10% below the pre-COVID-19 peak. Source: US Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, March 2021. Despite the gains in payroll employment, NYC’s overall unemployment rate remains elevated at 12.9%, up 920 basis points (bps) from one year ago, and well above the national unemployment rate of 6.2% as of February 2021. Q1 2021 CBRE Research © 2021 CBRE, Inc. 2 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL LEASING Retail leasing velocity in Q1 2021 decreased for the Harlem saw activity in Q1 2021 with two seventh consecutive quarter. The Q1 2021 rolling transactions for over 31,000 combined sq. ft. The four-quarter aggregate leasing velocity, which larger of these was Trader Joe’s lease for a 28,000- measures total leasing (renewals and new leases) sq.-ft. multi-level store, its first outpost in Upper for the four prior quarters, was approximately 1.55 Manhattan, in the Urban League Empowerment million sq. ft., falling below two million sq. ft. for Center at 121 West 125th Street. the first time since 2014. The Q1 2021 total was down 26.3% from Q4 2020 and 58.8% from a year In terms of square footage leased by industry, prior.4 There is cautious optimism that this will apparel recorded 71,000 sq. ft.—the highest mark the nadir of leasing in the market, as leasing velocity in the first quarter. Much of the improving economic conditions and leasing was accounted for by the aforementioned normalization of city life, coupled with tenant- Gucci transaction. favorable market conditions, inspire retailers to sign for new locations in the months ahead. Figure 3: Four Quarter Aggregate Leasing Velocity 4.5 The Plaza District recorded the highest leasing 4.0 velocity in Q1 2021, though the volume was 3.5 3.0 relatively low at just two transactions for a 2.5 combined total of approximately 47,000 sq. ft. The 2.0 larger and more significant transaction was the 1.5 two-year 46,000 sq. ft. renewal signed by Gucci to 1.0 Millions of of Millions Square Feet 0.5 retain its outpost at the Trump Organization’s 721 0.0 Fifth Avenue. Gucci’s renewal, three years in advance of its 2024 expiration, will keep the luxury brand firmly rooted to the corridor beyond 2026. Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2021 SoHo recorded 43,000 sq. ft. leased across six transactions. Greene Street was the most active Figure 4: Rolling Four-Quarter Aggregate Total Leasing Velocity street in this popular retail submarket as three Period 12 Month Aggregate (Sq. Ft.) tenants completed nearly 20,000 sq. ft. of leases in the first quarter. The largest transaction was Q1 2018 3,512,751 signed by Cartier, the French luxury watch and Q2 2018 3,364,275 jewelry manufacturer, which closed on more than Q3 2018 3,546,517 Q4 2018 3,847,553 9,300 sq. ft. for a new outpost at 102 Greene Street. Q1 2019 3,884,788 New leases signed by Bottega Veneta, an Italian Q2 2019 4,105,544 luxury fashion house, and Polene, a French luxury Q3 2019 3,926,777 leather goods brand, combined for more than Q4 2019 3,870,730 10,000 sq. ft. at 101 Greene Street and 62 Greene Q1 2020 3,771,076 Street, respectively. Additionally, TUMI, the high- Q2 2020 3,274,960 end luggage manufacturer, secured roughly 9,200 Q3 2020 2,847,223 sq. ft. at 513 Broadway. Q4 2020 2,108,024 Q1 2021 1,552,999 Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2021 Q1 2021 CBRE Research © 2021 CBRE, Inc. 3 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL Food & beverage (F&B) companies completed the upscale, eastern Mediterranean restaurant, also largest number of transactions among announced plans to renew their 6,300-sq.-ft. lease Manhattan’s retail sectors in Q1 2021 with twelve at Empire State Realty Trust’s 60 East 42nd Street. transactions totaling more than 41,000 sq. ft. The Sonic Drive-In, the American restaurant chain most notable F&B transaction was the roughly owned by Inspire Brands, showed that new tenants 14,000-sq.-ft. lease signed by Delmonico’s, one of are exploring opportunities in New York City by New York City’s oldest steakhouses, at 510 West committing to more than 5,400 sq. ft. for their first 42nd Street. Pera Mediterranean Brasserie, an Manhattan outpost at 966 Avenue of the Americas. Figure 5: Most Active Neighborhoods by Sq. Ft. Leased | Q1 2021 Figure 6: Most Active Tenant Type by Sq. Ft. Leased | Q1 2021 Leased Leased Neighborhood Number of deals Tenant Type Number of deals (Sq.
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