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Country Report Cyprus 2016

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Country Report Cyprus 2016 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 7.4.2016 SWD(2016) 120 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Country Report Cyprus 2016 Including an In-Depth review on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances This document is a European Commission staff working document. It does not constitute the official position of the Commission, nor does it prejudge any such position. EN EN CONTENTS Executive summary 1 1. Scene setter: economic situation and outlook 4 2. Imbalances, risks and adjustment issues 14 2.1. Financial sector 14 2.2. Private indebtedness 23 2.3. External sustainability 36 2.4. Sustainability of public finances 41 2.5. MIP assessment matrix 46 3. Additional structural issues 49 3.1 Obstacles to growth 49 3.2. Labour market, education and social challenges 55 3.3. Public sector 65 3.4. Energy, environment and climate 73 3.5. Health care sector 76 A. Overview table 78 B. MIP Scoreboard 80 C. Standard tables 81 LIST OF TABLES 1.1. Key economic, financial and social indicators - Cyprus 13 2.1.1. Financial robustness indicators 17 2.1.2. Debt restructuring targets 18 2.1.3. Quantitative assessment of Cypriot banks' restructuring process 19 2.5.1. Macro imbalances procedure: assessment matrix 46 3.1.1. Research and development indicators for Cyprus 54 B.1. MIP Scoreboard 80 C.1. Financial market indicators 81 C.2. Labour market and social indicators 82 C.3. Expenditure on social protection benefits (% of GDP) 83 C.4. Structural policy and business environment indicators 84 C.5. Green growth performance 85 LIST OF GRAPHS 1.1. Growth of GDP and components 4 1.2. GVA and contributions by sectors 4 1.3. Employment, Unit Labour Costs and unemployment 5 1.4. Current account balance and components 6 1.5. Credit growth and interest rate on outstanding loans by sector 6 1.6. Potential growth and contributions 7 2.1.1. Evolution of banking sector assets in Cyprus 15 2.1.2. Liquidity support to banks in Cyprus 15 2.1.3. Deposits and non-performing loans 18 2.1.4. Non-performing loans, provisions and profitability (June 2015) 19 2.2.1. Evolution of private sector indebtedness 23 2.2.2. Growth in the private sector debt-to-GDP ratio (excluding SPEs), and contributions 23 2.2.3. Assets and income of indebted households 24 2.2.4. Household non-performing loans ratio1 24 2.2.5. House prices, cross country comparison with peaks aligned 25 2.2.6. House prices and disposable income 26 2.2.7. Household debt servicing ratio 26 2.2.8. Non-financial corporations non-performing loans ratio 27 2.2.9. Non-financial corporations ratio of debt (excluding SPEs) to liquid assets 27 2.2.10. Distribution of domestic loan stocks, September 2015 28 2.2.11. Growth in debt-to-gross operating surplus and non-performing loans by sector 28 2.2.12. Growth in profit mark-ups by sector 29 2.2.13. Investment and debt 30 2.2.14. Interest burden - Cyprus versus the euro area 30 2.2.15. Non-financial corporations surplus allocation 31 2.3.1. International investment position, gross 36 2.3.2. Net international investment position 36 2.3.3. Savings by institutional sector 37 2.3.4. Total investment 37 2.3.5. Current account balance 38 2.3.6. Net international investment position 38 2.3.7. Gross external debt 39 2.3.8. Cumulative trade balance adjustment 39 2.3.9. Cyclically-adjusted current account balance 40 2.3.10. Net lending 40 2.4.1. Primary balance (general government) 41 3.1.1. Real gross value added and contribution to growth by sector 49 3.1.2. Contribution to growth from labour utilisation 50 3.1.3. Contribution to growth from hourly labour productivity 50 3.1.4. Shift-share breakdown of productivity growth 50 3.1.5. Greenfield foreign direct investment 51 3.1.6. Investment 52 3.1.7. Ease of Doing Business world ranking, 2016 53 3.2.1. Employment and GDP growth 55 3.2.2. Breakdown of rate of change of unit labour cost 55 3.2.3. Labour costs and productivity developments compared 56 3.2.4. Skill-adjusted public sector wage premium 56 3.2.5. Labour force participation by nationality and sex 57 3.2.6. Unemployment by duration 57 3.2.7. Unemployment rate by skill level, age 15-64 (per cent) 58 3.2.8. Beveridge Curve 58 3.2.9. Unemployment rate by age groups (percent) 58 3.2.10. Overall performance of the education and training sector vs. EU average and targets 60 3.2.11. Percentage of low-achievers in basic skills (PISA 2012) 60 3.2.12. Percentage of vocational education and training students at ISCED 3 level 61 3.2.13. At-risk-of-poverty rate and its components 61 3.3.1. Government Effectiveness Index 65 3.3.2. Expenditure and revenue ratio (general government) 67 3.3.3. Total expenditure (general government) Difference Cyprus - Euro area 67 3.3.4. Compensation of general government employees 68 3.3.5. Gross fixed capital formation (general government) 69 3.3.6. Main mobile operator market share (%) 71 3.3.7. % of individuals using Internet at least once a week (2015) 71 3.4.1. Energy trade balances as a share of GDP 73 3.4.2. Industrial consumer energy prices 74 3.5.1. Private health expenditure (% of total health expenditure) 76 LIST OF BOXES 1.1. Inward spillovers to Cyprus 8 1.2. Investment challenges 10 1.3. Contribution of the EU Budget to structural change 12 2.1.1. Reform of the legal framework for private debt restructuring 21 2.1.2. The efficiency of the justice system in Cyprus 22 2.2.1. The Cypriot housing market 32 2.2.2. Title deeds issuance and transfer 34 2.4.1. Debt sustainability assessment 44 3.2.1. The Cypriot welfare reform 63 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Following the end of the economic adjustment remained negative. Real GDP grew by 1.6% in programme for Cyprus on 31 March 2016, this 2015. However, in nominal terms, economic country report assesses Cyprus's economy in light growth was flat due to subdued price of the Commission's Annual Growth Survey developments, which are reflected in a negative published on 26 November 2015. The survey consumer price inflation rate (-1.6%). Private recommends three priorities for EU economic and consumption has been one of the main driving social policy in 2016: re-launching investment; forces of growth, with investment growth pursuing structural reforms to modernise Member (excluding ship registrations) remaining low, States' economies; and responsible fiscal policies. government consumption contained, and net At the same time, the Commission published the exports still subdued. Alert Mechanism Report that initiated the fifth annual round of the macroeconomic imbalance Although the labour market has started procedure, in which a number of indicators suggest recovering, youth and long-term unemployment the possible presence of imbalances in Cyprus. The remain high, in a context of slowly rising job Alert Mechanism Report identified issues relating creation. The unemployment rate started to to the current account deficit, net international decline slowly in 2015, while employment grew by investment position (NIIP), losses in export market around 0.9%. However, youth and long-term shares, private sector debt, and government debt, unemployment remain high, at 33% of the young which warrant further in-depth review. In the labour force and 7% of the total labour force, present analysis, the Cypriot economy is respectively. considered as it stands today, without taking into account the economic effects of a possible future Investment is still dampened by high corporate reunification. debt, and the housing market remains depressed. Credit to the economy continues to be Cyprus benefited from an economic adjustment subdued and banks struggle with a very high ratio programme, during which it emerged from of non-performing loans (around 55% on loans to recession, stabilised its financial sector, and households and non-financial corporations). This consolidated its public finances; yet many high level of non-performing loans weighs on challenges remain. Considerable economic banks' profitability and on their capacity to build imbalances, including an unstable and oversized up capital buffers. New lending is constrained by financial sector and fiscal imbalances, led Cyprus lack of viable projects in which to invest due to to require financial assistance in June 2012. high private indebtedness and non-compliance During the programme, the European Commission with financial contracts. SMEs are overly monitored the correction of imbalances in liaison dependent on bank lending, while alternative with the European Central Bank (ECB), and, financing remains limited, which significantly where relevant, with the International Monetary hampers their ability to invest and grow. Fund (IMF). Credit tightening and the need for corporate balance-sheet restructuring led to a Regarding the progress in reaching the national contraction of the economy and, consequently, to a targets under the Europe 2020 Strategy, Cyprus surge in unemployment. Despite the many good has either reached or is making progress towards achievements during the programme, the crisis has its targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, left legacy issues. increasing the share of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, reducing early school Reforms have started to bear fruit. The leaving and increasing the tertiary education economy reached a turning point in 2015, with attainment. On the other hand, progress towards growth having resumed and unemployment Europe 2020 targets on the employment rate, starting to decline. However, potential growth has investment in research and development and the suffered from the recession and vulnerabilities reduction of poverty and social exclusion appears remain in several areas, particularly as regards limited.
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