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Suria Capital Holdings Company Guide Suria Capital Holdings Version 2 | Bloomberg : SURIA MK | Reuters: SURI.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Malaysia Equity Research 1 Mar 2016 BUY JQ launch still pending Last Traded Price: RM2.30 (KLCIKLCI : 1,654.75) Price Target : RM2.90 (26% upside) Still positive. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation for Shariah Compliant: Yes Suria Capital (Suria) with a TP of RM2.90, based on RNAV Potential Catalyst: Higher than expected port contributions with valuation. acceleration in cargo activities Where we differ: In line with consensus Analyst NoNoNo nearnear----termterm financial impact from being an implementing King Yoong CHEAH CFA +603 2604 3908 [email protected] agent. We understand that Suria’s recent appointment as What’s New implementation agent (IA) for Sapangar Bay Container Port’s • FY15 core earnings within expectations (SBCP) expansion programme will allow the group to supervise • No near-term financial impact from IA and facilitate the design and implementation of this appointment programme. However, there will be no direct financial impact • JQ launch still awaiting approvals for the group in the near term, as the construction contracts • Maintain FY16-17 earnings forecasts will be awarded to third parties. Nonetheless, the group, as the appointed operator of SBCP, will benefit from the increased port capacity post-expansion by 2020. Price Relative RM Relative Index 3.3 Revised traffic plan for submission. We understand that 3.1 208 although the group has obtained the development order (DO) 2.9 188 2.7 168 for the Jesselton Quay (JQ) project, management has revised its 2.5 2.3 148 traffic plan for submission and is still awaiting the approvals 2.1 128 1.9 108 from the authorities. We have assumed that JQ project will be 1.7 1.5 88 launched in 2H16. 1.3 68 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Valuation: Suria Capital Holdings (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS) We maintain our BUY recommendation for Suria with a Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (((RMRMRM m) 2014 AAA 2015 FFF 2016 FFF 2017 FFF RM2.90 TP based on RNAV valuation. Our TP implies 15x Revenue 273 256 274 281 forward PE. EBITDA 123 142 119 122 Pre -tax Profit 72.8 38.1 73.2 78.1 Key Risks to Our View: Net Profit 52.1 21.4 54.1 55.4 Slowing port activities and delay in property launches. Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 52.1 42.7 54.1 55.4 Net Pft Gth (Pre -ex) (%) (14.2) (18.1) 26.7 2.4 EPS ( sen ) 18.4 7.55 19.1 19.6 At A Glance EPS Pre Ex. ( sen ) 18.4 15.1 19.1 19.6 Issued Capital (m shrs) 288 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (14) (18) 27 2 Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 663 / 157 Diluted EPS (sen ) 18.4 15.1 19.1 19.6 Major Shareholders (%) Net DPS ( sen ) 6.44 5.29 6.68 6.85 Warisan Harta Sdn Bhd 46.2 BV Per Share ( sen ) 299 349 361 374 Lemaga Tabung Haji 9.2 PE (X) 12.5 30.4 12.0 11.8 PE Pre Ex. (X) 12.5 15.3 12.0 11.8 Free Float (%) 44.6 P/Cash Flow (X) 16.9 6.6 6.7 6.6 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.02 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.0 3.7 4.1 3.6 ICB Industry : Industrials / Industrial Transportation Net Div Yield (%) 2.8 2.3 2.9 3.0 P/Book Value (X) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH RO AE (%) 6.3 2.3 5.4 5.3 Earnings Rev (%): (50) 0 0 Consensus EPS (sensensen )::: 15.0 19.0 20.0 Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 0 H: 0 Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: CK / sa:BC Company Guide Suria Capital Holdings WHAT’S NEW Revised traffic plan for submisssubmission.ion. We understand that Within expectation although the group has obtained the development order (DO) for the JQ project, management has revised its traffic plan for Within expectation. Stripping off various exceptional items submission and is still awaiting the approvals from the which include (1) disposal gains of RM112m on the Jesselton authorities. We have assumed that JQ project will be Quay (JQ) JV project with SBC Corp, (2) impairment loss of launched in 2H16. RM12m of concession assets, and (3) one-off arbitration expenses of RM7m, Suria Capital reported FY15 core earnings Maintaining earnings forecasts. We are maintaining our of RM43m, which was within our expectations. FY16-17 earnings forecasts for the group. No direct financial impact from being implementing agency. We understand that Suria’s recent appointment as implementation agency for Sapangar Bay Container Port’s (SBCP) expansion programme will allow the group to supervise and facilitate the design and implementation of this programme. However, there will be no direct financial impact for the group in the near term, as the construction contracts will be awarded to third parties. Nonetheless, the group, as the appointed operator of SBCP, will benefit from the increased port capacity post expansion by 2020. To recap, Suria has recently announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sabah Ports Sdn Bhd (SPSB), has been appointed the implementing agent for the SBCP’s expansion programme. Under the Eleventh Malaysia Plan, the Federal Government has allocated RM800m for the project, whereby funding under the first rolling plan will be staggered over two years (2016-2017). Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RMm) FY Dec 4Q4Q4Q20144Q 2014 3Q3Q3Q20153Q 2015 4Q4Q4Q20154Q 2015 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 72.2 65.2 61.1 (15.3) (6.2) Cost of Goods Sold (43.8) (42.1) (56.1) 28.2 33.2 Gross Profit 28.4 23.1 5.00 (82.4) (78.3) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (10.8) (1.4) 7.70 (171.0) (640.4) Operating Profit 17.6 21.6 12.7 (27.8) (41.3) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Associates & JV Inc 0.0 0.0 0.0 nm nm Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (1.5) (1.1) (1.0) 31.7 11.1 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 (1.0) nm nm PrePrePre ---tax Profit 16.1 20.5 10.7 (33.6) (47.8) Tax (6.3) (2.8) (3.8) (39.5) 37.6 Minority Interest 0.04 0.26 0.40 875.6 56.9 Net Profit 9.88 18.0 7.30 (26.1) (59.4) Net profit bef Except. 9.88 18.0 8.30 (16.0) (53.9) EBITDA 29.8 33.3 57.8 94.3 73.8 Margins (%) Gross Margins 39.4 35.4 8.2 Opg Profit Margins 24.4 33.2 20.8 Net Profit Margins 13.7 27.6 11.9 Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS Research Page 2 Company Guide Suria Capital Holdings Port revenue growth (%) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH 3.85 3.75 3.26 3.29 3.26 2.77 2.46 2.29 Earnings Drivers: 1.80 1.31 0.83 Port operations ––– key earnings contributorcontributor. Suria is principally 0.34 -0.15 -0.63 involved in port operations, logistics & bunkering services, -1.12 -1.61 -2.09 contract engineering, and property development & ferry -2.58 -3.07 -3.55 terminal. Four of Suria’s ports are located in the west coast of -4.04 -4.53 -5.01 Sabah and four in the east coast. Sandakan Port and Lahad -5.50 -5.99 -6.47 Datu Port are the key earnings contributors for the group, -6.96 -6.33 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F driven by the export-driven palm oil industry in the east coast. The group owns the 30-year port concession (with a 30-year Port PBT margin (%) extension option) that started on 1 Sep 2004. We forecast a 6% 37.6 decline in port revenues this year, premised on lower volume 38.4 32.5 33.6 31.3 throughput due to lower palm oil output and general cargo 30.7 throughput. 26.5 23.0 Successful launch of JQ project to be a key catalystt.......... In an 15.3 effort to diversify its income stream, Suria intended to expand earnings contributions from the property segment. In 2013, the 7.7 group entered into a JV with SBC to develop 16.25 acres of its 0.0 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 23.25-acre plot around the Kota Kinabalu Port, with a minimum net saleable value (NSV) of RM1.8bn. This is known as the Estimated cash proceeds from SBC (RM,m) Jesselton Quay (JQ) project. As landowner, Suria will receive a 81.6 80 minimum guaranteed cash return of RM324m or 18% of the total NSV (whichever is higher). Although management has 65.3 recognised the present value of its remaining scheduled 49.0 payments in 2QFY15, which led to a one-off disposal gain of RM112m, the NPV of the remaining RM322m schedule 32.6 payments form about 27% of our current DCF valuation for the 20 16.3 group. We also have not factored in any cash return in excess of 2 0 the minimum guaranteed cash return of RM324m. 0.0 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F ………and…and nnotototot forgetforgettingting its JV with GAQRSGAQRS.... In 2015, the group has Capex (RM,m) also teamed up with Gabungan AQRS (GAQRS) to jointly 70 70.7 develop the remaining 7-acre land with an estimated minimum 61.9 NSV of RM1.1bn.
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