FAO 2020–2021 La Niña Advisory
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©FAO/Asim Hafeez ©FAO/Asim FAO 2020–2021 temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a sustained strengthening of the trade winds. A La Niña La Niña advisory event develops approximately every two to seven years and lasts from six months to two years. A global La Niña Potential impacts on agriculture and event is declared after the central Pacific Ocean and the food security in high-risk countries atmosphere show signs of certain atypical conditions for a prolonged period of time, usually over a period of three months. La Niña increases the risk of heavy rainfall Introduction and flooding in some parts of the world and of drought through reduced rainfall in others. In some instances and The second half of 2020 saw the emergence of a for some regions, the impact of La Niña also depends moderate to strong La Niña event that is causing on its interaction with other climatic events, such as the extreme weather in many parts of the world. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). meteorological phenomenon that affects temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns is expected to last The impact of La Niña on agriculture and food security into next year, according to the World Meteorological can be severe. The event from 2010 to 20121 was one of Organization (WMO). The last strong La Niña event was the strongest on record and caused the 2010 Pakistan from late 2010 to early 2011, followed by a moderate floods. The same event also led to above-average tropical event from late 2011 into 2012 and a weak one in from cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean during the late 2017 into 2018. The 2020–2021 La Niña episode 2010, 2011 and 2012 hurricane seasons. puts some countries in Southern Africa, the greater Horn of Africa, Asia and the Pacific at high risk of incurring The extent of La Niña’s impact on agriculture and agricultural losses and seeing food insecurity conditions food security depends on a complex interplay of worsen. As a result, these countries should be prioritised meteorological, seasonality and vulnerability factors. for further monitoring, analysis and early action. As a result, impact patterns of global La Niña events are variable and do not necessarily materialize during This advisory provides an overview of the historical every occurrence. While the intensity of a La Niña event impact of La Niña and an outlook of the potential effects generally affects the severity of its global impacts, there on the agriculture sector in 2020–2021. Importantly, it is always potential for even a weak or moderate episode also offers specific recommendations for anticipatory to generate serious humanitarian impacts in some actions to mitigate the impacts of La Niña before it regions and on the agricultural sector in particular. This creates large-scale food security emergencies. uncertainty makes it especially critical to systematically analyse weather forecasts, identify vulnerabilities and determine risks with the help of regional and national What is La Niña? climate outlooks and strong early warning systems. La Niña is a recurrent global atmospheric-oceanic 1 The 2010–2011 La Niña, which was classified as a strong event, was followed by a moderate event in 2011–2012. This event was phenomenon associated with a decrease in sea surface considered as “La Niña Modoki”. FAO 2020–2021 La Niña advisory 2020–2021 La Niña forecast • The IRI La Niña and Rainfall map (Figure 1) helped identify countries that are historically impacted by In October 2020, the World Meteorological Organization La Niña and the specific conditions they experience declared the development of a La Niña episode that is (dry or wet). expected to last into next year and affect temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns in many parts of • Global and regional seasonal forecasts for the the world. period from October 2020 to March 2021 highlighted countries with anomalous rainfall prospects that Likewise, the November 2020 La Niña forecast from would likely experience the impact of La Niña.2 Columbia University’s International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society points to a 95 percent chance of • The INFORM Index for Risk Management provided La Niña continuing through January to March 2021. There country-specific thresholds for vulnerability and lack is a 65 percent chance it might last into the spring of 2021 of coping capacity. All countries selected had medium (March–May). WMO projects the intensity of the event to values for vulnerability (3.3 and above) and medium be medium to strong. values for lack of coping capacity (4.7 and above) in the Index. A framework for anticipatory action • Agricultural seasonality analysis helped determine to mitigate the impact of La Niña the stage of crop growth that could be affected during the outlook period and the impact this could have on In the immediate aftermath of the severe El Niño food security. in 2015 and 2016, the humanitarian and development community called for a framework that could guide • Additional aggravating factors, including health, the way partners monitor both El Niño and La Niña security and macro-economic constraints further events and initiate anticipatory actions to mitigate determined to what extent countries would be their impacts. As a result, the Food and Agriculture of vulnerable to additional shocks. the United Nations (FAO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), • Expert opinion and technical judgment during together with other partners, developed the Inter-Agency discussions provided additional perspective in Standard Operating Procedures for Early Action to particular cases when a country fell outside some of El Niño/La Niña Episodes. the above-mentioned parameters. Identifying high risk countries Additional countries of concern When the likelihood of a La Niña event happening in FAO included additional countries in this advisory after July 2020 rose to 55 percent, global partners met to updated seasonal climate forecasting information carry out an initial analysis to identify the countries at became available in the months following the ENSO Cell highest risk of La Niña impacts. This process was driven analysis. These countries are: the Democratic People’s by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Global Republic of Korea, Iraq, Madagascar, Mozambique, Cell of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), Pakistan and Zimbabwe. which includes FAO, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), IRI, OCHA, It should be noted that the list of high-risk countries the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), WMO, presented here is neither fixed nor final. It is the result the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Food of a global analysis and should be verified against new Programme (WFP) and others. and more detailed national forecasts and more nuanced understandings of risk and vulnerability at a national Together, they prioritized a set of countries for further level. In addition, meteorological forecasts used in the monitoring, analysis, support and anticipatory action based on the humanitarian impact La Niña was likely to 2 The main source used for this was the IRI Seasonal Climate Forecast. have on each. A consultative process produced a list of The seasonal climate outlooks produced by some Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and other global forecasts (e.g. the European high-risk countries in September 2020 focusing on the Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)) were also taken following information: into consideration. 2 | FAO 2020–2021 La Niña advisory analysis are probabilistic, which implies a certain degree sufficient to cushion against the humanitarian of uncertainty over the scenarios that may develop. repercussions in most countries, monitoring should The countries included in the high-risk list are not the continue, especially in Bolivia, where drier-than-average only countries that need to be concerned about a conditions have already been observed in some areas. La Niña event. Rather, they are those that, based on a number of factors outlined above, should be prioritized It is therefore highly recommended that the regions for international support in further analysis and and countries at risk continue to carefully monitor anticipatory action. meteorological forecasts with the understanding that their level of risk might change. In particular, the advisory does not include a specific section on countries in the Americas. Some countries It is worth noting that food security in high risk countries in Central America and the Caribbean have already could also be affected by the impacts that La Niña might experienced strong floods as a result of the interplay have on agricultural production in other countries, of La Niña conditions and the hurricane season. High particularly the main global food producers. Low outputs probability of above-average rain in the first quarter of food staples in these countries could result in lower of 2021 raises the likelihood of generally conducive exportable availabilities and higher international prices, conditions for the start of the 2021 primera season in which would raise import costs and put pressure on Central America, but if excessive rainfall materializes, retail prices to the detriment of consumers, especially it could be harmful for apante bean production in in net food-importing developing countries. This Honduras and Nicaragua. Countries in the northern part calls for continuous monitoring of conditions at the of South America are likely to benefit from above-average international level, particularly among the main food rainfall associated with La Niña, although intense rainfall producing countries.3 could have a negative impact in some areas. La Niña conditions have already been felt in other areas of both 3 For the latest outlook on the global food supply and demand situation, North and South America, and potential for further and international food prices, please refer to FAO’s World Food Situation impact exists.