Plateauing at the Peak the State of the Smartphone Contents
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Global Mobile Consumer Survey: UK cut Plateauing at the peak The state of the smartphone Contents Foreword 3 Smartphone adoption: Plateauing at the peak 4 Smartphone behaviours: Steady as we go 9 The smartphone multiplier 13 5G adoption: More home than away? 17 Mobile games: A billion pound blockbuster 19 Data privacy: UK users get more generous with their data 23 Endnotes 28 About the research 30 Mobile Consumer Survey 2019 | The state of the smartphone Foreword A dozen years since launch, the smartphone is now at an Some commentators have hypothesised that wearables, such as inflection point. Adoption rates are nearing their natural peak, wireless ear buds, fitness trackers or augmented reality glasses, with close to nine in ten adults owning one. While ownership rates could collectively replicate the functionalities of the smartphone. may be approaching a ceiling, the smartphone economy is just But the reality is that most wearables need the smartphone: they getting started. The smartphone industry remains brimming will, for many years, depend on smartphones for a combination of with potential. processing power, connectivity or display. Wearables are not the smartphone’s nemesis. And there do not appear to be any other The smartphone’s unparalleled ubiquity – tens of millions of imminent, existential threats to the smartphone. devices in the UK, and billions globally – is a potent foundation for an ever-widening array of ancillary revenue streams. These While adoption of the smartphone device is mainstream in the UK, comprise content (such as mobile advertising and apps), hardware reliance is still patchy – and therein lies the potential. For example, (from wireless earbuds to selfie sticks) and services (including in 2017, only five per cent of UK POS spend was through a mobile insurance and repairs). wallet. By contrast, in China, this was 36 per cent1A. This year’s report examines some of the larger elements of the The future trajectory for the smartphone is changing but remains smartphone economy including a deep dive on mobile games, positive. Indeed, the UK’s smartphone revolution is far from which are the most significant revenue generator in mobile app complete: its power as a foundation for multiple associated stores. While console games may generate the most headlines, revenue streams – hardware, content, advertising, and services mobile games win on revenue. Mobile games revenue in the UK – is growing apace. alone is greater than for e-Sports globally. The report also examines attitudes and behaviours to data privacy. Dan Adams Despite a continued stream of headlines focused on data breaches UK Lead Partner, Telecommunications and GDPR’s first year, the UK consumer is now sharing more data than ever and also remains nonchalant about reviewing terms and Paul Lee conditions for apps or Wi-Fi hotspots. Partner, Head of Global Research, Technology, Media & Telecommunications 2019 is 5G’s first year in the UK. The impact of 5G on consumers is likely to be less pronounced than with the 4G upgrade but should still be tangible. For consumers, 5G’s benefit will be most noticeable in rush hour in major cities when 5G subscribers may be the sole users able to access their favourite apps. By contrast 4G users may be confronted and confounded by the spinning wheels that denote network congestion. We do not foresee any challengers to the smartphone on the horizon: adoption rates should maintain at current levels and not decline. We believe the smartphone will consolidate its status as the number one device. It will be valued for its innate functionality, from camera to connectivity, and, increasingly, for the value it unlocks in ancillary, dependant devices, from smart watches to the smart home. 3 Mobile Consumer Survey 2019 | The state of the smartphone Smartphone adoption: Plateauing at the peak Smartphone adoption is nearing its natural plateau in the UK, and Smart speakers, fitness trackers, security cameras, smart watches, indeed in other developed markets. In the year since the 2018 wireless ear buds and smart lighting are just some of the hardware survey, adoption nudged up a single percentage point, to 88 per products that rely on smartphones. Smartphones are used to cent – ranking the smartphone as the clear number one connected configure smart speakers, display data collected by fitness trackers, device (see Figure 1). Over the next 12 months, growth in adoption relay images from security cameras, process the data shown on is likely to be immaterial, and it will be post-growth. smartwatches, store data played on ear buds or to configure smart lights. The more ancillary devices acquired, the more vital, and the And so the smartphone will join the laptop computer and the tablet more used smartphones become. as having reached its natural plateau, but at the top of the pack, and it is unlikely to relinquish that position. The smartphone is also likely to remain the focus of investment budgets for many years to come. In 2019, over 1.4 billion The smartphone is likely to remain the most ubiquitous device smartphones will be shipped – far greater than any other among UK adults for many years to come. There are no challengers device. The vastness of the market means that investments in on the horizon: in fact the device is likely to consolidate its primacy new processors, machine learning capability, computational over the coming years, and become even more vital. photography, display technology and connectivity are likely to be focused on the smartphone ahead of other device form factors. The smartphone has become integral to many people’s lives both The smartphone has been steadily and resolutely edging out other because of the ever-expanding array of applications on the device, devices. It has appropriated the MP3 player, usurped the compact the improvements in existing app and also because of the growing digital camera, replicated the basic fitness tracker. It is the boarding array of devices that it enables. pass, the cinema ticket, the metro pass. Its core functionality, including camera, screen, graphics Advances in components for smartphones will trickle down to processing, machine learning and biometric authentication, is other devices a year or two later. The latest smart TVs incorporate iterated ambitiously and audaciously every year. Smartphone prior generation smartphone processors, further amortising displays compete with the latest TV sets for colour range and investments made. The tens of billions of dollars spent on brightness. Its cameras may soon be outperforming some models smartphone innovations are likely to help the smartphone retain of digital SLR in capturing the stars at night, or even in capturing its primacy among other devices for the foreseeable future. professional wedding shots1B. Figure 1. Smartphone, laptop, tablet access (2012-19) Question: Which, if any, of the following devices do you own or have ready access to? 100% 87% 88% 90% 85% 81% 79% 79% 76% 76% 76% 78% 78% 80% 73% 75% 70% 68% 70% 63% 64% 65% 62% 60% 60% 52% 50% 50% 40% 36% 30% 20% 16% 10% 0% Smartphone Laptop Tablet 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Weighted base: All respondents aged 18-75 years, 2012: 2,060, 2013: 4,020, 2014: 4,000, 2015: 4,000, 2016: 4,003, 2017: 4,002, 2018: 4,000, 2019: 4,000 Source: UK edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May-Jun 2012, May-Jun 2013, May-Jun 2014, May-Jun 2015, May-Jun 2016, May-Jun 2017, Jun 2018, May-Jun 2019 4 Mobile Consumer Survey 2019 | The state of the smartphone Smartphones have been adopted by all age groups, but adoption As well as being the device most owned, the smartphone is also remains strongest among 18-24 and 25-34 year olds, among whom the device most used, as can be seen in Figure 3 which shows the ownership is almost universal, with 93 and 94 per cent adoption extent to which a range of devices have been used in the last day. respectively (see Figure 2). The biggest change in adoption since The smartphone leads by a clear margin. Five further devices are 2012 has been among 45+ adults, which had the lowest bases. used by half of their owners daily; the remainder are used less Among 45-54 year olds, adoption has leapt from 60 to 90 per cent, frequently, suggesting a lower degree of utility. and among 55-75 year olds has doubled to 80 per cent. Figure 2. Smartphone ownership by age group with 6 year CAGR (2013-19) Question: Which, if any, of the following devices do you own or have ready access to? 6 year CAGR 6 2 2 4 7 12 97% 95% 95% 100% 94% 93% 92% 92% 92% 91% 91% 90% 90% 90% 90% 89% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 85% 85% 90% 84% 84% 83% 82% 81% 81% 80% 77% 76% 76% 80% 74% 71% 70% 67% 70% 65% 62% 60% 60% 57% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All ages 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-75 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Weighted base: All respondents aged 18-75 years (2013/2014/2015/2016/2017/2018/2019): (4,020/4,000/4,000/4,003/4,002/4,000/4,000), 18-24: (482/518/510/510/493/487/478), 25-34: (675/762/760/761/758/762/760), 35-44: (708/730/720/720/708/704), 45-54: (705/779/782/783/785/780/770), 55-75: (1,450/1,211/1,228/1,230/1,258/1,266/1,289) Source: UK edition, Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, May-Jun 2013, May-Jun 2014, May-Jun 2015, May-Jun 2016, May-Jun 2017, Jun 2018, May-Jun 2019 5 Mobile Consumer Survey 2019 | The state of the smartphone There has been little or no change in usage intensity for most of Usage patterns vary by age group.