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Portrait of an Election Our Election Dashboard Below Includes the Latest Polls on Sentiments Driving This November’S Elections

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Portrait of an Election Our Election Dashboard Below Includes the Latest Polls on Sentiments Driving This November’S Elections Volume 6, Issue 9 • October 2010 Portrait of an Election Our election dashboard below includes the latest polls on sentiments driving this November’s elections. President Obama’s approval rating in Gallup’s monthly averages has been below 50 percent all year. His marks on handling the economy are even lower. Congress’s ratings have been dismal all year. Neither Democratic nor Republican leaders there are popular. On page three, we look at the views of independents who may be poised, for the third election in a row, in Pew’s words, “to vote out the party in power.” Later in this report we have complete trends from many of the major pollsters on the health care bill and President Obama’s handling of the issue. We also look at major pollsters’ takes on the Tea Party. Q: Do you . ? Q: Do you . ? Approve of the way President Obama Approve of the job Republican is handling his job leaders are doing in Congress January 49% January 27% September 45 September 24 Note: Monthly averages. In Gallup’s latest October poll, 46 percent Approve of the job Democratic approved. Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September 2010. leaders are doing in Congress January 31% Q: Do you . ? September 30 Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of September–October 2010. Approve of the way President Obama is handling the economy Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several January 46% public figures, groups and organizations, and I’d like October 38 you to rate your feelings toward each one as . Source: CBS, latest that of October 2010. Positive Negative Q: Generally speaking, would you say . ? Republican Party January 32% 48% Things in this country are headed September 31 43 in the right direction Democratic Party January 39% January 39 38 October 31 September 37 42 Source: Ipsos/Reuters, latest that of October 2010. Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of September 2010. Q: Would you like to see . ? Q: Regardless of how you feel about your member, would you like to see . ? Would like to see your representative Would like to see most members in Congress re-elected of Congress re-elected February 49% 32% August–September 49 33 Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: PSRA, Pew Research Center, latest of that of August–September 2010. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org A Pox on Both Parties Although views about the Democratic Party’s ability to solve the country’s problems, bring about needed changes, and manage the federal government effectively are down sharply from 2006, Americans do not rate the Republican Party’s abilities highly. An ABC News/Yahoo question shows that people are not confident in either party in Congress to improve the economy. Forty-three percent of Americans say they could do a better job than most current members. Q: Please tell me whether you think each of the following applies . ? Applies to the Republican Party Applies to the Democratic Party Has a clear plan for solving the country’s problems 1994 28% 1994 30% 1999 38 1999 47 2006 29 2006 40 2010 32 2010 33 Can bring about the changes this country needs 1994 43% 1994 43% 1999 52 1999 56 2006 40 2006 59 2008 39 2008 58 2010 43 2010 40 Is able to manage the federal government effectively 1994 42% 1994 34% 1999 56 1999 57 2006 40 2006 57 2008 38 2008 54 2010 42 2010 39 Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September–October 2010. Q: Do you think . ? Economy will have a better chance of improving If the Democrats remain in control of Congress 23% If the Republicans take control of Congress 26 Either way it won’t affect what happens with the economy 47 Source: ABC/Yahoo, September 2010. Q: Do you think . ? An everyday American could do a better job than most current members of Congress Could not 55% 35% You could do a better job than most current members of Congress Could not 43% 52% Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, October 2010. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 Declarations of Independents The ranks of self-described independents grew during George W. Bush’s second term as some Republicans cast off their party label. In an early 2009, Pew said the number of independents was the highest it had been in 70 years. Today on many issues and on their congressional vote intention, independents are leaning heavily to the GOP. They prefer the GOP on economic and foreign policy issues, but not on social issues. Q: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? 40% Party Identification, 2004–2009 35% 35% Democrat 34% 30% Independent 25% 24% Republican 20% 15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of 2009. Q: Does the . ? Independents’ response Republican Party comes closer to my views Democratic Party does 43% Economic issues 34% 44 Foreign policy and national security 30 33 Social issues such as abortion 39 and gay marriage Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, August–September 2010. Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? How Independents Plan to Vote Of the 18 percent nationally who considered themselves members of the Tea Party movement Sept. 27– Oct. 11– 53% were Republicans Oct. 3, Oct. 17, 41% were independents 2010 2010 6% were Democrats Registered Independent voters 35D 44R 37D 48R Likely Voters: High Turnout Model 31D 56R 35D 54R Note: In an April CBS poll, 18 percent of those surveyed said they were supporters of the Tea Party movement. Fifty- Likely Voters: Low Turnout Model 30D 59R 31D 59R four percent were Republicans, 41 percent independents, Source: Gallup. and 5 percent Democrats. Source: CBS, October 2010. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 Election Indicators Senate 57 Democrats � Since World War II, the House has flipped 41 Republicans 6 times (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2 Independents (caucus with Democrats) 2006). Each time the Senate flipped as well. Number of pickups needed to change control: 10 � Three states—Illinois, Delaware, and West Average loss in the eleven first midterm Virginia—will seat junior senators in since WWII: 2.5 seats November, as these states are having elec- tions to replace appointed senators. Each House 255 Democrats of these states is currently represented by 178 Republicans a Democrat. 0 Independents 2 vacancies (IN-3 and NY-29) � Three Senate incumbents—Lisa Murkowski Number of pickups needed to (R-AK), Arlen Specter (D-PA), and Bob change control: 39 Bennett (R-UT)—were defeated in their Average loss in the eleven first midterms primaries (or convention) this year; the last since WWII: 25.4 seats time that many Senators lost in their pri- maries was 1980, when four were defeated. Governors 26 Democrats Only four senators lost their primaries in 23 Republicans the years between 1980 and 2010. 1 Independent (FL—Crist) � This year, five former governors are seeking State Legislatures 25 Democrat the office they used to hold—Jerry Brown 14 Republican (D-CA), Roy Barnes (D-GA), Terry 8 divided control Branstad (R-IA), Bob Ehrlich (R-MD), and 1 non-partisan (NE) John Kitzhaber (D-OR). � Four-hundred and seven House districts Earliest Poll Closings are being contested by the major parties 6:00 p.m. (EST) Indiana* this year, 94 percent of House elections. Kentucky* � Since 1945, the Dow Jones Industrial Aver- 7:00 p.m. (EST) Florida age has gained an average of 16.2 percent in Georgia the year following a mid-term election. Indiana* Kentucky* � Bill Galston of Brookings writes that in South Carolina Congress “today, for the first time in mod- Vermont ern history—maybe ever—the most con- Virginia servative Democratic senator is to the left of the most liberal Republican. There is Latest Poll Closings literally no ideological overlap between 12:00 a.m. (EST) Alaska the parties.” Hawaii � George Will notes that it is possible for at 11:00 p.m. (EST) California least 18 new Senators to join that body in Oregon January. Senators in their first terms would Washington then compose a majority of the body, a first * In Indiana and Kentucky, some polls close at 6 p.m. and others at 7 p.m. since the popular election of Senators was because these states have two time zones. instituted in 1913. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 4 Health Care: The Major Trends President Obama’s Handling of Health Care Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy? (The Gallup Organization, PSRA/Pew Research Center*,CNN/Opinion Research Corporation ); Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care? (ABC/Washington Post); Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is han- dling health care? (Quinnipiac, CBS/New York Times); Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues . healthcare? (Fox/Opinion Dynamics); Q: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling health care?(AP/Gfk-Roper) ——Gallup—— —ABC/WP— —PSRA/Pew— —Quinnipiac— —CBS/NYT— App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis Jul. 2009 44% 50% 49% 44% 42% 43% 46% 42% 46% 38% Aug.
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