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Vietnam Dairy Products Corporation (Vinamilk)

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Vietnam Dairy Products Corporation (Vinamilk) Company Report BUY July 2nd, 2008 Chart 1A - Price Chart Chart 1 - Earnings model (mil VND) FY 2005A yoy F Y 2006A yoy FY 2007 yoy FY 2008F yoy 180 Revenues 5,638,784 49.4% 6,245,619 10.8% 6,648,193 6.4% 8,247,326 24.1% 160 Profit before tax 602,600 30.6% 662,774 10.0% 955,381 44.1% 1,401,835 46.7% 140 Net Profit 605,484 31.2% 659,890 9.0% 963,448 46.0% 1,205,578 25.1% 120 Pre-tax Profit Margin 10.7% -12.6% 10.6% -0.7% 14.4% 35.4% 17.0% 18.3% 100 Net Profit Margin 10.7% -12.2% 10.6% -1.6% 14.5% 37.2% 14.6% 0.9% 80 EPS (VND) 3,808 NA 4,150 NA 5,585 34.6% 6,836 22.4% BVPS (VND) 14,132 NA 17,223 NA 24,624 43.0% 29,377 19.3% 2-Jan-08 4-Mar-08 26-Jun-08 29-Jan-08 31-Mar-08 25-Apr-08 30-May-08 P/E 29.4 NA 27.0 NA 20.1 -25.7% 16.4 -18.3% Source: HOSE P/B 7.9 NA 6.5 NA 4.5 -30.1% 3.8 -16.2% (mil VND) FY2009F yoy FY 2010F yoy FY 2011F yoy FY 2012F yoy Chart 1B - Stock Data Revenues 9,549,805 15.8% 10,949,100 14.7% 12,587,252 15.0% 14,388,959 14.3% Profit before tax 1,500,181 7.0% 1,674,044 11.6% 1,795,570 7.3% 2,050,167 14.2% Price VND 112,000 Net Profit 1,125,135 -6.7% 1,255,533 11.6% 1,346,678 7.3% 1,537,626 14.2% Outstanding shares 175,275,670 Pre-tax Profit Margin 15.7% -7.6% 15.3% -2.7% 14.3% -6.7% 14.2% -0.1% Forward P/E 16.4 Net Profit Margin 11.8% -19.4% 11.5% -2.7% 10.7% -6.7% 10.7% -0.1% Forward P/B 3.8 EPS (VND) 6,114 -10.6% 6,822 11.6% 7,317 7.3% 8,355 14.2% 52 Week Range 90,000 - 198,000 BVPS (VND) 30,011 2.2% 31,067 3.5% 32,417 4.3% 34,384 6.1% Performance (12 months) -29% P/E 18.3 11.8% 16.4 -10.4% 15.3 -6.8% 13.4 -12.4% Market Capitalization VND 19,630,875,040,000 P/B 3.7 -2.1% 3.6 -3.4% 3.5 -4.2% 3.3 -5.7% US$ 1,165,382,905 Source: Vinamilk, HSC Source: HSC Chart 1C - Key Numbers (VNDmm) 2005 2006 2007 Vietnam Dairy Products Corporation (Vinamilk) Total assets 3,897,936 3,600,533 5,425,117 Owner’s Equity 2,246,917 2,738,383 4,315,937 Revenue 5,638,784 6,245,619 6,648,193 We initiate coverage on Vinamilk with a BUY rating and a target price of Pre-tax profit 602,600 662,774 955,381 VND147,000. After-tax profit 605,484 659,890 963,448 • The stock price is cheap at current levels - on a forward P/E of 16.4x, in Source: Vinamilk comparison with average P/E of 22.6x for regional peers. Chart 1D - Main Ratios • We forecast FY2008 net profit growth of 25.1% driven by increasing Ratio 2005 2006 2007 market share in core businesses, entry into new segments and improving Liquidity ratios profit margins. - Current ratio 1.6 2.6 3.4 - Quick ratio 0.9 1.4 1.6 • Vinamilk has made significant market share gains due to a marketing Profitability Ratios revolution and rebranding policy initiated in FY2007. We expect further - Gross margin 22.3% 26.5% 27.3% market share gains going forward. - Net profit margin 10.7% 10.6% 14.5% - ROE 29.5% 26.5% 27.3% • Impressive historical performance with 2-yrs growth rate of net - ROA 18.8% 17.6% 21.3% profit and ROE at 27.5% and 26.9% respectively. However EPS Operating Efficiency Ratios growth for the next three years might be dented by full tax obligation. - Receivable turnover 12.7 10.3 11.4 - Inventory turnover 4.7 4.6 3.7 • Growth drivers are a huge product range, an extensive distribution - Asset turnover 1.7 1.7 1.5 network, good pricing power, strong brand name supported by much - Equity turnover 2.8 2.6 1.9 improved marketing and growth and margin expansion strategy. Source: HSC • Our main concerns for Vinamilk are its high dependence on imported raw materials, soaring raw milk price and tougher competition. Analyst Tran Huong My (84 8) 823 3299 [email protected] 1 Please refer to the disclosures of potential conflict of interest and the disclaimer at the end of this report Company Report BUY July 2nd, 2008 Executive Summary (1) Volume growth due to an increasing market share in existing core businesses such as fresh milk and pow- dered milk combined with strong sales from other prod- Snapshot ucts such as yoghurt and condensed milk; (2) Margin growth via restructuring cost savings especially on raw Vinamilk is the largest dairy producer in Vietnam in terms material costs and a better brand mix with a focus on of market share, brand name, production capacity and higher margin products; (3) Expanding operations into distribution network. In 2007, Vinamilk held a dominant new asset classes such as financial investments. 90% share in the yoghurt market, a 35% share in liquid milk, a 79% share in sweetened condensed milk and a 14% share in the powdered milk market. We believe Valuation that over the next five years Vinamilk can post 16.8% in annual average sales, in line with the whole industry. We value Vinamilk at VND147,031 per share based on average regional comparables P/E. We think the stock deserves neither a premium nor a discount to its region- Business environment al peers. On the one hand it has an undisputed lead in its local market but on the other hand its is strictly a one Over the next few years, we see two key drivers under- country play. pinning dairy industry growth - a boom in dairy products as a growing urban market consumes more dairy prod- The share price has declined to VND112,000, down ucts and fiercer competition between current players. 47.2% from its high and this values the company at a The dairy industry will continue to see strong growth but historical FY2007 P/E of 20.1x and 16.4x 2008 estimat- competition will get even tougher and we may see some ed earnings. At our price target, Vinamilk would trade consolidation and even the possibility of new entrants at 22.6x forward P/E. Vinamilk does not have any Vi- from 2010. etnam-listed direct comparables; outside Vietnam other listed dairy producers include twelve companies that Amongst the existing players Vinamilk is the most likely are trading at an aggregated average 22.6x forward P/E beneficiary of any consolidation trend over the medium for FY2008. term but its long term success depends on its ability to leverage its strengths in distribution and more recently in marketing in order to build a dominating position in Foreign Ownership ratio the most profitable market segments. Given their recent performance they have a good shot. Currently the foreign ownership ratio is 45.5% as of July 2nd. This gives room of just 820,438 shares. However we notice that over the last 15 trading days foreigners Growth strategy have bought an average of 80,258 shares and sold an average of 60,955 shares. So we see healthy two way We expect Vinamilk’s earnings growth to be driven by: trading amongst foreigners in the stock. Chart 2 - Comparable Valuation Approaches Company Stock Exchange Market P/E P/E EPS EPS EPS (US$ m) Cap 2007 2008F 2007 2008F growth Dutch Lady (Malaysia) Bhd Malaysia 239 16.9 16.5 0.21 0.22 7.3% Nestle (Malaysia) Bhd Malaysia 2,028 22.2 20.4 0.34 0.39 13.0% Fraser & Neave Singapore 4,631 16.8 15.0 0.20 0.20 -0.5% China Mengniu Dairy Company Ltd HongKong 4,042 33.3 27.5 0.08 0.09 5.1% Bright Dairy & Food Company China 1,045 33.7 40.0 0.02 0.03 30.8% Meiji Dairies Corporation Japan 1,655 27.1 21.9 0.32 0.19 -42.2% Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd Japan 660 20.9 19.3 0.12 0.13 8.5% Snow Brand Milk Products Japan 1,093 22.2 22.0 0.16 0.16 1.0% Maeil Dairy Industry Korea 168 7.0 6.4 1.80 1.95 8.7% NamYang Dairy Products Co. Korea 502 8.8 8.0 79.47 87.41 10.0% Nestle India Limited India 3,605 37.4 28.9 1.00 1.29 29.2% Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading Indonesia 217 5.8 5.2 0.01 0.01 10.0% AVERAGE 19,885 26.2 22.6 0.20 0.18 2.2% Vinamilk Vietnam 1,165 20.1 16.4 0.33 0.41 22.4% Source: Bloomberg, HSC 2 Please refer to the disclosures of potential conflict of interest and the disclaimer at the end of this report Company Report BUY July 2nd, 2008 Chart 3 - Dairy consumption per capita (value) and region averages.
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