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Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio

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Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio in Three Emerging Economies Prabir C. Bhattacharya Heriot-Watt University Department of Economics Working Paper Edinburgh No. 2012-01 EH14 4AS, UK November 2012 Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio in Three Emerging Economies by Prabir C. Bhattacharya Heriot-Watt University Abstract The aim of this paper is to study inequality and deprivations as reflected in the human sex ratio (commonly defined as the number of males per 100 females). The particular focus is on three emerging economies, viz., Russia, India and China. The paper compares and contrasts the experiences of these countries and discusses policy issues. It is noted that while the feminist perspective on the issues surrounding the sex ratio is important, it would be wrong to view these issues always or exclusively through the prism of that perspective . It is also suggested that India and China probably have better prospects of sustained economic growth in the foreseeable future than does Russia. Keywords: sex ratio, gender inequality, emerging economies, policy. 2 I. Introduction The human sex ratio (conventionally defined as the number of males per 100 females) varies greatly between countries and regions. Differentials in mortality by sex are now nearly universally recognised; with equal care and feeding, females experience lower mortality. This is particularly so in advanced age and also during the neonatal period. There is greater biological frailty of the male infant with regard to the congenital defects and the birth process. In western Europe and North America, female children typically have a substantial survival advantage. The biological norm is for about 105 boys to be born for every 100 girls more or less everywhere in the world. But given the greater survival rates of females, the sex ratio of the population in the West and in many other parts of the world is in favour to women. In the UK, the ratio is 98, in the US, 97; and in the EU taken as a whole, 92. In the sub-Saharan Africa, where the life expectancy at birth for both males and females is quite low, the ratio is 99. In Russia, Ukraine and some of the former Eastern block countries, the ratio is amongst the lowest in the world: 86 for both Russia and Ukraine. In contrast, there are many countries in the world – most notably China and India – where the ratio is abnormally high: in both China and India, the ratio is 106. It has been estimated that if India and China had the same sex ratio as in sub-Saharan Africa, then, given the number of males in these countries, there would have been 37 million more women in India and 44 million more women in China in the mid-1980s.1 According to Sen (1990), “These numbers tell us, quietly, a terrible story of inequality and neglect leading to the excess mortality of women”. However, even in India and China, there are now more women than men in the elderly population. The sex ratio of the population in the age group 65 years and above is 90 in India, 91 in China. For comparison, this ratio is 76 for the UK, 75 for the US. However, for Russia this ratio seems astonishingly low: only 45.2 This, coupled with the fact that the overall sex ratio is also quite low in Russia, while the sex ratios at birth and for childhood years are in line with the standard norms, leads one to wonder if the survival of men in Russia has not been particularly 1 See Drèze and Sen (1989, Table 4.1, p52). See also Coale (1991) and Klasen (1994). 2 This sex ratio is also very low for Ukraine and Belarus. Part of the explanation for this low sex ratio in these countries is likely to be the excess male deaths that occurred during World War II. However, by now this effect can only be a very small part of the explanation. 3 difficult. 3 The difference in life expectancy at birth between males and females in Russia – a difference of 13 years in favour of females – is the highest of any country in the world today. There would clearly appear to be a problem of “missing men” in Russia. The situation in Russia, however, does not seem to have received any attention in the context of the current discussions surrounding sex ratios, where the focus has mainly been on India and China, in particular on sex-selective abortions and excess female child mortality in these countries.4 This is not surprising given the large size of the populations in these countries (2.4 billion out of the world population of 6.7 billion). What happens in these countries will obviously have a profound effect on the overall masculinity of the population of the whole world. But clearly the Russian situation also deserves some attention in any discussion of the unusual sex ratio patterns. Besides, Russia – like India and China – is also regarded as a major emerging economy. It would, therefore, appear to be of some interest to compare and contrast these countries in terms of deprivations as reflected in their sex ratio patterns, and this is the main purpose of this paper. The plan of the rest of the paper is as follows. The next section, Section II, discusses the Russian experience. Section III discusses the Indian case, while section IV considers the Chinese experience. Section V examines the consequences of “missing girls” in both India and China and discusses policy issues. Section VI offers some concluding observations. II. Russia Russia’s population has declined by 7 million from 149 to 142 million since 1992. The decline would have been even greater without net immigration. Most of the immigration has been by ethnic Russians, mainly from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. However, this ethnic Russian immigration has been declining and most analysts agree that immigration is unlikely to be an important source of population stabilization in the future. Many analysts believe that Russia could have a population of less than 100 million by 2050. 3 As indeed also in Ukraine and Belarus. 4 Sex-selective abortions and higher than the normal sex ratio at birth (SRB) are , of course, not confined to India and China alone. Taiwan and Vietnam in East Asia, Ajerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in West Asia, and Pakistan in South Asia all exhibit higher than normal SRB. However, in this study we focus on India and China, partly because more data are available for these countries, and partly because the lessons from the experiences of India and China are likely to be applicable to these other countries, too. 4 The decline in Russia’s population is linked to a sudden, sharp decline in fertility and high mortality rates. Until the mid-1960s, Russia’s total fertility rate (TFR), which represents the number of live births a woman would have were she to live through her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates, generally exceeded the replacement level fertility of 2.1. Then it hovered around 2.0, before exceeding 2.2 in 1986 and 1987 – the years of perestroika. After the collapse of communism, the TFR, however, went into a precipitous decline, the lowest level reached being 1.17 in 1991. Since then it has recovered somewhat to be around 1.3, a rate that is, however, still among the lowest in the world. It has been argued that “the poor economic conditions in the 1990s probably... contributed to lower fertility rates in Russia by making couples less able to afford to raise children and generally less optimistic about bringing them into the world”. 5 Accompanying the low fertility rate in Russia has been one of the highest abortion rates in the world – at 70 per cent of pregnancies in 2000- 2001.6 The rapid decline of fertility in early 1990s coincided with a rapid increase in mortality. In 1991-1992, the death rate passed the birth rate and since then Russian has recorded nearly thirteen million more deaths than births. There was also a decline in fertility and an increase in mortality in all former Soviet block countries in Eastern Europe following the collapse of communism and currently all of these countries have fertility rates which are among the lowest in the world. However, in all of these countries, unlike in Russia, the increase in mortality did not last long and was replaced by mortality decline and increases in life expectancy (on this more below). By contrast, in Russia mortality continued to increase and life expectancy at birth has continued to decline erratically or at best stagnated at a very low level. Life expectancy in Russia improved rapidly from the 1920s through the early 1960s, with life expectancy for both males and females increasing by nearly 30 years during this period. By 1964, Russia’s life expectancy was nearly equal to that of the United States for both males and females. But then over the period 1965-84, Russia’s life expectancy actually fell by about a year and a half, while life expectancy was increasing rapidly in most other parts of the world. The reasons for this decline are not obvious. Changes in the Russian diet in favour of more red meat 5 DaVanzo and Grammich (2001, p24). 6 The abortion rate, however, has been declining in recent years due to the greater availability of modern means of contraception. 5 and sugar and away from cereal and starches,7 the bleakness generated by the Soviet system, and alcohol abuse are all plausible candidates.
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