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JIMAR Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2014 For Cooperative Agreement NA11NMF4320128 Mark A. Merrifield, PhD Director Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research University of Hawai‘i at Manoa 1000 Pope Road, MSB 312 Honolulu, HI 96822 USA http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/jimar Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Performance Period July 1, 2013–June 30, 2014 Mark A. Merrifield, PhD Director Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research University of Hawaii at Manoa 1000 Pope Road, MSB 312 Honolulu, HI 96822 http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/jimar JIMAR 2014 Annual Report ii Table of Contents Introduction ______________________________________________________________________________v Accomplishments for Fiscal Year 2014 Ecosystem Forecasting _____________________________________________________________________1 Ecosystem Monitoring _____________________________________________________________________3 Ecosystem-Based Management _____________________________________________________________37 Protection and Restoration of Resources _____________________________________________________50 Equatorial Oceanography __________________________________________________________________61 Climate Research and Impacts ______________________________________________________________64 Tropical Meteorology _____________________________________________________________________73 Tsunamis and Other Long-Period Ocean Waves _________________________________________________77 JIMAR Publications ________________________________________________________________________81 Appendices Appendix I List of Acronyms ______________________________________________________________91 Appendix II Visiting Scientists ____________________________________________________________98 Appendix III Workshops and Meetings Hosted by JIMAR _______________________________________104 Appendix IV JIMAR Personnel ____________________________________________________________106 Appendix V Awards _____________________________________________________________________107 Appendix VI Graduates __________________________________________________________________108 Appendix VII Publication Summary ________________________________________________________109 iii JIMAR 2014 Annual Report iv Introduction The Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (JIMAR) is a cooperative enterprise between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Hawaii (UH). The scope of these efforts spans the U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands as well as the broader Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. JIMAR brings together research scientists from NOAA line offices, UH, and the global community to conduct research in the broad interests of NOAA. NOAA line offices collaborating with JIMAR include the National Marine Fisheries Service (primarily the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center) and NOAA Research Laboratories (primarily the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL], Earth System Research Laboratory [ESRL], National Weather Service [NWS], National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service [NESDIS], and the National Ocean Service [NOS]). JIMAR also promotes student development, outreach, and supports special training programs. JIMAR intends to be the lead agent for all NOAA research in the Indo-Pacific region and maintains standards of accomplishments expected of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at the UH. Included in this report are projects under award Mark Merrifield, Director number NA11NMF4320128. Our mission and vision statements are as follows. Mission: JIMAR’s mission is to conduct research that is necessary for understanding and predicting changes in the Indo-Pacific region, for conserving and managing coastal and marine resources in island environments, notably the Hawaiian Islands and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands and for meeting the Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs in these regions. Vision: JIMAR’s vision is to support NOAA’s concept of Resilient Ecosytems Communities and Economies while recognizing the special challenges and opportunities that the Pacific Islands face in achieving a sustainable and prosperous future in challenging global and regional economies. JIMAR research covers eight themes, all aligned with the NOAA strategic plan and the University’s Indo- Pacific mission. The themes are: (1) ecosystem forecasting, (2) ecosystem monitoring, (3) ecosystem-based management, (4) protection and restoration of resources, (5) equatorial oceanography, (6) climate research and impacts, (7) tropical meteorology, and (8) tsunamis and other long-period waves. JIMAR researchers continued to excel during FY 2014, particularly in the areas of collaboration with the NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC). JIMAR has used internal funds to invest in stronger ties between NOAA and University of Hawaii researchers by supporting graduate and undergraduate research assistantships, by bringing in new viewpoints and expertise through the support of postdoctoral researchers and visiting scientists, and by providing seed funds to help grow collaborative research opportunities in the major theme areas. This annual report provides an overview of JIMAR research achievements during FY 2014. Here are a few highlights: • Modern stock assessment models utilize a wide variety of data types such as measures of catch, relative abundance, and age or size composition of the catch. However, inappropriate data weightings or mis-specified fishing selectivity process can cause undue influence on the stock abundance estimate. JIMAR Senior Fishery Specialist, Hui-Hua Lee led an effort to produce a diagnostic method for evaluating the relative importance of the input parameters and to make recommendations for improving stock assessment techniques. The result is the Fisheries Research journal article “Use of likelihood profiling over a global scaling parameter to structure the population dynamics model: An example using blue marlin in the Pacific Ocean” by H.H. Lee, K.R. Piner, R.D. Methot, and M.N. Maunder (158:138-146, doi:10.1016/j.fisheries.2013.12.017). • Since 2011, JIMAR scientists have endeavored to characterize the general ecology, distribution, and threats to coral species petitioned for protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Some in the scientific community raised concerns that listing corals under ESA could result in burdensome processes to continue research and monitoring efforts. JIMAR Coral Ecological Researcher, Mariska Weijerman, and JIMAR Marine v JIMAR 2014 Annual Report Ecosystems Research Coordinator, Matt Dunlap, were part of a team of researchers who examined the ESA process for data-deficient species and investigated the consequences on research for recently listed corals. The result is a Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability journal article “Endangered Species Act listing: Three case studies of data deficiencies and consequences of ESA ‘threatened’ listing on research output” by M. Weijerman, C. Birkeland, G.A. Piniak, M.W. Miller, C.M. Eakin, P. McElhany, M.J. Dunlap, M. Patterson, and R.E. Brainard (7:15-21, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2013.11.026). They found that journal publications did not decrease for recently listed coral species, suggesting that important research for threatened species can continue despite apparent bureaucratic obstacles. • JIMAR Field Research Supervisor, Jessie Lopez, led an effort to study geographic variation in the levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the serum of Hawaiian monk seals from the main Hawaiian Islands. This resulted in the Endangered Species Research journal paper “Geographic variation of persistent organic pollutants in Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi) in the main Hawaiian Islands” by J. Lopez, K.D. Hyrenbach, C. Littnan, and G.M. Ylitalo (24:249-262, doi:10.3354/esr00602). They discovered that seals with similar ranges were shown to have similar POP levels, but seals with home ranges around the island of O‘ahu had significantly higher summed polychlorinated biphenyls and polybrominated diphenyl ethers than seals around the islands of Kaua‘i and Moloka‘i. There are differences in the land use characteristics adjacent to seals’ home ranges (Oahu has a high percentage of urban land use; Moloka‘i has a high percentage rural and agricultural land use). This work is unique, as the integration of serum POP levels and seal home ranges revealed geographic patterns that help assess the risk to seals at both the individual and population level. The integrated approach of this study can also be applicable to other marine wildlife exposed to local and non-point pollutants. • JIMAR Ecosystem Researcher, Melanie Abecassis, and JIMAR Marine Turtle Research Specialist, Denise Parker, were members of a team researching habitat preferences for juvenile loggerhead turtles in the North Pacific. They developed a PLOS ONE journal paper entitled “A model of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) habitat and movement in the oceanic North Pacific” by M. Abecassis, I. Senina, P. Lehodey, P. Gaspar, D. Parker, and G. Balazs (8(9), e73274, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073274). Tracking data from two multi- year long tagging programs using satellite transmitters deployed on wild and captive-reared turtles were utilized in this study. Among other findings, the team discovered that larger turtles dive deeper than the mixed layer and subsequently target warmer surface waters. Water temperature and swimming speed were used to parameterize