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Faculty of Economics and Administration MASTER's THESIS 2019 Olha KANARCHUK Masaryk University Faculty of Economics and Administration MASTER’S THESIS 2019 Olha KANARCHUK Masaryk University Faculty of Economics and Administration Field of study: THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF AN ONLINE-BASED TECHNOLOGY COMPANY Master’s Thesis Supervisor: Author: Ing. Dagmar, LINNERTOVÁ, Ph.D Olha KANARCHUK Brno, 2019 MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Economics and Administration MASTER’S THESIS DESCRIPTION Academic year: 2018/2019 Student: Olha Kanarchuk Field of Study: Finance (Eng.) Title of the thesis/dissertation: Fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company Title of the thesis in English: Fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company Thesis objective, procedure and methods used: The aim of the thesis is to carry out financial and fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company and formulate investment recommendation. The process of work: 1. Introduction, methodology and data 2. Theory of financial and fundamental analysis 3. Analysis of the online-based technology industry with respect to an analyzed company 4. Financial analysis of a particular company 5. Computation of the intrinsic value of the stock using methods and tools of fundamental analysis 6. Discussion of results, formulation of investment recommendation 7. Conclusion Methodology: analysis, comparison, deduction Extent of graphics-related work: According to thesis supervisor’s instructions Extent of thesis without supplements: 60 – 80 pages Literature: DAMODARAN, Aswath. Damodaran on valuation : security analysis for investment and corporate finance. 2nd ed. Hoboken: Wiley, 2006. xi, 426. ISBN 0471751219. PINTO, Jerald E., Elaine HENRY, Thomas R. ROBINSON, John D. STOWE and Stephen E. WILCOX. Equity asset valuation. Third edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley, 2015. xix, 595. ISBN 9781119104261. BREALEY, Richard A., Stewart C. MYERS and Alan J. MARCUS. Fun- damentals of corporate finance. Ninth edition. New York: McGraw- Hill Education, 2018. xxxi, 726. ISBN 9781259921964. COLLINS, James C. Good to great and the social sectors : why busi- ness thinking is not the answer. [Boulder, Co.]: Jim Collins, 2005. 35 s. ISBN 0977326403. MARTIN, S and Fridson Fernando ALVAREZ. inancial Statement Ana- lysis: A Practitioner’s Guide. 4. vyd. : Wiley Finance Editions, Band 597, 2011. ISBN 978-0-470-63560-5. Page 1 of 2 Thesis supervisor: Ing. Dagmar Linnertová, Ph.D. Thesis supervisor’s department: Department of Finance Thesis assignment date: 2018/10/31 The deadline for the submission of Master’s thesis and uploading it into IS can be found in the academic year calendar. In Brno, date: 2019/05/16 Page 2 of 2 The aim of the thesis is to carry out financial and fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company and formulate investment recommendation. Name and surname of the author: Olha Kanarchuk Master’s thesis title: Fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company Department: Finance Master’s thesis supervisor: Ing. Dagmar Linertová, Ph.D. Master’s thesis date: 2019 Annotation The aim of the thesis is to carry out financial and fundamental analysis of an online-based technology company and formulate investment recommendation. Keywords Tencent, Alibaba, internet-company, Wechat, China, media, games, Facebook Declaration „I certify that I have written the Bachelor’s/Master’s Thesis <name> by myself under the supervision of <name of the supervisor> and I have listed all the literary and other specialist sources in accordance with legal regulations, Masaryk University internal regulations, and the internal procedural deeds of Masaryk University and the Faculty of Economics and Administration.“ Brno, Author’s signature Acknowledgement I would like to thank all people that have supported me with the knowledge obtained through whole my life which out to my interest to the topic concerned. I am grateful for the life experience and the point of view on the things happening in the world that helped me to make this investigation. Despite this, I feel strong will to get deeper insight for the future and will be polishing my skills to reach the real understanding of the subjects and refer it to the society. TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: INTRODUCTION, METHODOLOGY AND DATA………………………...… 1 PART 2: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS…………………………………………………….3 1.1 REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN……………………………………………….....…..3 1.2 ALPHA…………………………………………………………………....…..…….3 1.3 BETA………………………………………………………………………..………4 1.4 RISK FREE RATE…………………………………………………………….……..5 1.5 EQUITY RISK PREMIUM……………………………………………………………6 1.6 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL…………………………………………………..….7 1.7 CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL ………………………………………….7 1.8 MULTIFACTOR MODEL…………………………………………………………….9 1.9 FAMA-FRENCH MODEL…………………………………………………………….9 1.10 WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL………………………………………10 1.11 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS. PORTER’S “FIVE FORCES” …………………………...…12 PART 3: ANALYSIS OF THE ONLINE-BASED TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY WITH RESPECT TO AN ANALYZED COMPANY……………………………………………...15 3.1 TENCENT COMPANY……………………………………………………..………..15 3.2 CHINA’S E-COMMERCE SUCCESS…………………………………………..……..17 3.3 WECHAT……………………………………………………………………..…...20 3.4 CHINESE MODEL……………………………………………………………..…...25 3.5 TENCENT GAMES……………………………………………………………..…..29 3.6 WEPAY VERSUS ALIPAY…………………………………………………….…...38 3.6 INVESTMENTS RACE………………………………………………………………42 3.6 TENCENT AND NET EASE…………………………………………………………43 PART 4: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF A PARTICULAR COMPANY …………………45 4.1 STOCK FLUCTUATIONS……………………………………………………………45 4.2 AMERICAN-CHINESE TRADE WAR……………………………………………...…47 4.3 PRICE TO EARNINGS RATIO……………………………………….………………47 PART 5: COMPUTATION OF THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF THE STOCK USING METHODS AND TOOLS OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS………………………….52 5.1 FREE CASH FLOW OF THE FIRM ANALYSIS……………………………………..52 5.2 FREE CASH FLOW TO THE EQUITY ANALYSIS………………………………….54 PART 6: DISCUSSION OF RESULTS, FORMULATION OF INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION……………………………………………………………………..56 6.1 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES………………………………….……....….56 6.2 TENCENT BEHAVIOUR AS INVESTOR………………………………………..…….57 6.3 INVESTING IN THE INVESTOR………………………………………………….….58 CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………………60 LIST OF LITERATURE……………………………………………………………………62 LIST OF GRAPHS…………………………………………………………………………..71 LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………………………...72 LIST OF IMAGES………………………………………………...…………………………...73 PART 1: INTRODUCTION, METHODOLGY AND DATA The following research is based upon the current tendency of globalization online industry and its competitors. Within the internet popularity, people started to seek for different ways to connect their life styles and behaviours to the online systems that are supported by intelligent systems of calculations. The use of such increases the effectivity of the person and helps to stay in touch with all spectre of offers included into the program. Nowadays, those who provide such offers are those who can gain the most from the customer. The demand is growing exponentially with people desires to speed up their everyday life by using different tools as messaging services available to simultaneously show your friends activity and news from press-conference of European Union. Along with, it grows up to people’s way to rest and relax. The media industry had developed a lot for these past 20 years: from television to computer and now highly popular smartphone applications. But not only these two. The ban system is no longer just financial institution. With the growth usage of mobile banking it came possible to get rid of credit/debit cards in its well-known physical realization. Payments using smartphones, for instance IPay, and even fully online reliable banking system are shifting the standards. During investigations prior to writing the following plot, it became clear that this whole spectre of supply and even more is covered by the single, unknown to the mass giant company – Tencent Holdings. The company is settled in the Chinese market and has grown supplying the people’s needs in the online sphere since 1998 and remained unknown to the most society of Western world for years until it came out on the market with a strong policy and intentions. The company we will investigate is not just the Facebook of China as people tend to think, it is same as Google, similar to IPhone, has a great competition with Amazon and far more companies we can imagine. While Europe and America leaves with different kinds of products useful for each need, the Tencent has created all in one product. However, despite most of concerns that company is willing to take over the world and exert its authority is not quite right form to say. Before starting with the research itself, in Part 2: Fundamental Analysis, we will summarize the theoretical information about the essential models, key formulas and theories to pick up the best and appropriate ones and also base our information on the general and standardized way to describe the company. Within this Part we will need to note the most basics to rely on in the further analysis. 1 In this research we will focus on examining of the giant conglomerate from different parts of its business. In the Part 3: Analysis of The Online-Based Technology Industry with Respect To An Analysed Company we will deep into the details of ruling their products and taking over the markets. What is more, within this Thesis we will also make our assumptions of Tencent’s success based on the clear evidence and facts summarized in this investigation. It is the most voluminous part of the research since it needs to be investigated several industries that are intersect with the internet-based
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