Country Situation Analysis for December 24 Risk Assessment 2012 in Republic of Moldova Disaster and Climate Risk Assessment Project of UNDP Moldova Executive Summary Moldova’s economy, population, and environment are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards. Climate change is expected to amplify meteorological hazards in both frequency and intensity. Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been assigned a high priority in joint UN-government programmatic strategies for Moldova (2007-2011 UNDAF Outcome 1.5 “improved readiness to prevent and mitigate natural and manmade disasters and crises”). In this context, UNDP Moldova, with both technical and financial support from Bureau of Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) and in collaboration with the Government of Moldova, has carried out a two-year project “Disaster and Climate Risk Reduction”. The objective of the project is to contribute to the reduction of disaster and climate risk in Moldova by achieving the following outputs: Disaster and climate risk assessment capacities strengthened and priorities for disaster risk reduction identified at the national level to inform country disaster risk and climate risk management strategies and program development; Vulnerabilities reduced and capacities strengthened to manage climate risks at local level; Capacity of UN Country Team strengthened to manage disaster and climate risks. This presented study – Country Situation Analysis for Risk Assessment (CSA) - will contribute to the attainment of the first output which aims at establishing National Disaster Observatory (NDO) and implementing Country Situation Analysis (CSA). A CSA is the first step in the National Risk Assessment process.1 The presented analysis examines the current country situation of disaster risk assessment in Moldova and its use in decision making, based on the systematical inventory and evaluation of what exists in Moldova in terms of disaster risk assessment including historic disasters and major hazards prevailing in Moldova; risk assessment studies and projects; availability of data and information for risk assessment, methodologies and tools used; institutions and organizations related to risk assessment as data providers, risk assessment implementers and end users; key professional expertise. On this basis, this report discusses the issues and challenges Moldova is facing in conducting disaster risk assessment on its own; identifies gaps and needs to enhance the country capacity for risk assessment; and presents a set of recommendations for implementing National Risk Assessment (NRA) in Moldova on its own. Although Moldova is a country with wide Internet access throughout the country, the majority of information still is not transferred in electronic form. Given the fact that this study is specifically oriented towards finding official and confirmed information, and metadata and analyzing the current state of the country with respect to disaster risk assessment, the CSA team considers necessary to mention that the list of information is not exhaustive. Limitations were encountered from the beginning of the project implementation and were confirmed during the meetings with stakeholders. First of all, often available information is expired and no new information is available. The existing information must be understandable for those who work with it and to the authorities taking decisions based on it. Thus, the level of training must be continuously improved and maintained. Another issue is that sometimes several institutions are responsible for the same type of information: production and storing. Because the methodology of collection differs from organization to organization, numbers also differ. Thus reports/plans/activities/strategies produced based on, from one side similar information, but from another – totally un-corresponding one, are contradictory and often do not achieve the expected results. An update is needed also for the equipment and a continuous training of the personnel, to be able to use technical capacity and analyze obtained data in an appropriate manner. 1 Moldova Disaster and Climate Risk Reduction Project, UNDP, 2011 1 A sharing of information among authorities based on a specific scheme, updating information and making it available for all involved authorities, having a common data base to be accessed when needed are also problems related to risk assessment and prevention. The recommendations that can be found at the end of the document provide short specific suggestions on issues that constitute a problem and can be solved with internal capacities and political will. 2 Acknowledgement The CSA team is grateful to the stakeholders and the working group who have brought their input in the production of this report by commenting, criticizing and approving the content, and providing additional information and data, for a more objective analysis of the country situation with regard to disaster risk assessment and management procedures. 3 NOTE During stakeholder meeting several times was mentioned the fact that the report uses in many cases outdated information (2007 or earlier). It must be said that this is the official information the CSA team found and gathered. The team also has found other information, but the sources were not trustworthy/unconfirmed/unofficial/contradictory/false. Without confirmation of the correctitude of data, these could not be used in a report. As response, the team has requested with the Project’s help additional information. Indeed we have received more recent information (2007-2011). Still, the updated information did not change the list of recommendations and conclusions regarding the Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) process in Moldova. Recommendations were considered as adequate and helpful by most of the participants during the consultations. 4 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acronyms Definition in English AGeoM The State Geological Agency of Moldova AI Aridity Index AM Apele Moldovei ATU Administrative Territorial Units BCPR Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery COP Conference of Parties CSA Country Situation Analysis for Risk Assessment CSIRO-Mk2 Global climate model with slab ocean DRA Disaster Risk Assessment DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction ECCG Eco Counseling Center Galati ECHAM4 The atmosphere general circulation model ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast EIA Environment Impact Assessment GCM Global Climate Model GIS Geographical Information System GRIP Global Risk Identification Programme HadCM2 Hadley Centre Coupled Model version2 IDNDR International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction IGS Institute of Geology and Seismology of Moldova INGEOCAD Agency for Land Relations and Cadastre IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPROCOM State Design Institute ISA International Sociological Association MAFI Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry NDO National Disaster Observatory NGO Non-governmental Organization NRA National Risk Assessment NRAF National Risk Assessment Framework NRIS National Risk Information System PCF Participatory Culture Foundation PE Potential Evaporation PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios SCPESS State Civil Protection and Emergency Situations Service TACIS Technical Aid to the Commonwealth of Independent States UN NHDR United Nation, National Human Development Reports Resources UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECE The UN Economic Commission for Europe WB World Bank 5 Table of contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................ 5 List of tables................................................................................................................................................................... 9 List of charts ................................................................................................................................................................ 10 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Purposes and Objectives of the Project ....................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Expected Outputs of the Project .................................................................................................................. 13 2 Methodology and Approach ................................................................................................................................ 15 2.1 Methodologies ............................................................................................................................................ 15 3 Historic Disaster and Major Hazards ................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 Historic disasters and their impacts ............................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 Historic Earthquake Disasters .............................................................................................................. 22 3.1.2