FINAL DRAFT Risk Assessment February 2020

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FINAL DRAFT Risk Assessment February 2020 Agenda Item E.3.a SRKW Workgroup Report 1 (electronic only) March 2020 Pacific Fishery Management Council Salmon Fishery Management Plan Impacts to Southern Resident Killer Whales FINAL DRAFT Risk Assessment February 2020 Pacific Fishery Management Council Ad-Hoc Southern Resident Killer Whale Workgroup Phil Anderson, Pacific Fishery Management Council Jeromy Jording, National Marine Fisheries Service Susan Bishop, National Marine Fisheries Service Teresa Mongillo-Lawson, National Marine Fisheries Service Will Satterthwaite, National Marine Fisheries Service Eric Ward, National Marine Fisheries Service Scott McGrew, U.S. Coast Guard Mike Matylewich, Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission Hap Leon, Makah Tribe Tyler Gross, Quileute Tribe Tyler Jurasin, Quinault Indian Nation Brian Hoffman, Hoh Tribe Kyle Adicks, Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife Derek Dapp, Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife Chris Kern, Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife Craig Foster, Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife Lance Hebdon, Idaho Department of Fish and Game Chris Kozfkay, Idaho Department of Fish and Game Brett Kormos, California Department of Fish and Wildlife Erica Meyers, California Department of Fish and Wildlife 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..............................................................................................9 1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................10 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Purpose and Need .......................................................................................................... 10 1.3 NMFS Recovery Plan Guidance ................................................................................... 12 2 STATUS OF THE SPECIES ..........................................................................13 2.1 Abundance, Productivity, and Trends .......................................................................... 13 2.2 Geographic Range and Distribution ............................................................................. 17 2.3 Limiting Factors and Threats ....................................................................................... 36 2.3.1 Quantity and Quality of Prey .................................................................................. 36 2.3.2 Nutritional Limitation and Body Condition ............................................................ 42 2.3.3 Toxic Chemicals ..................................................................................................... 43 2.3.4 Disturbance from Vessels and Sound ..................................................................... 43 2.3.5 Oil Spills ................................................................................................................. 45 3 SRKWS AND CHINOOK SALMON FISHERIES .....................................46 3.1 Relationship between SRKWs and Chinook salmon.................................................... 46 3.2 History of salmon fisheries impacts analyses ............................................................... 47 3.2.1 Summary description of the 2009 NMFS biological opinion on PFMC salmon fisheries ................................................................................................................... 47 3.2.2 Summary description of the 2012 Independent Science Panel review ................... 48 3.2.3 Summary description of the 2019 NMFS pre-season assessment of fisheries impacts on SRKW ................................................................................................................ 52 3.2.4 Summary description of the 2019 NMFS biological opinion on South East Alaskan salmon fisheries ...................................................................................................... 55 4 PFMC SALMON FISHERIES .......................................................................57 4.1 Harvest Controls ............................................................................................................ 58 4.2 Overall Fishery Objectives ............................................................................................ 59 4.3 Schedule and Procedures for establishing annual management measures ............... 61 4.4 Season structure ............................................................................................................ 62 4.4.1 North of Falcon ....................................................................................................... 62 4.4.2 South of Falcon to California Border...................................................................... 64 4.4.3 California Coast ...................................................................................................... 66 4.5 Chinook salmon harvest ................................................................................................ 67 5 RISK ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................72 5.1 Model Description ......................................................................................................... 72 5.2 Demographic Indices Considered ................................................................................. 77 5.3 Model Structure ............................................................................................................. 78 5.4 Model Run Descriptions ................................................................................................ 78 5.5 Effects of Fisheries ........................................................................................................ 86 5.6 Key Uncertainties .......................................................................................................... 89 6 INTEGRATION AND SYNTHESIS .............................................................95 3 7 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................105 APPENDIX A ...........................................................................................................119 APPENDIX B ...........................................................................................................122 APPENDIX C ...........................................................................................................125 APPENDIX D ...........................................................................................................147 APPENDIX E ...........................................................................................................151 APPENDIX F ............................................................................................................158 APPENDIX G ...........................................................................................................160 4 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.2.a Confirmed opportunistic sightings of SRKW off Washington, Oregon, and California from 1986 – 2016. Unconfirmed sightings are not included in this table. Confirmed sightings that occurred off Canadian and Alaskan waters are not included in this table. ................................... 20 Table 2.2.b. Satellite-linked tags deployed on Southern resident killer whales 2012-2016. (Hanson et al. 2018. This was part of a collaborative effort between NWFSC, Cascadia Research Collective, and the University of Alaska. ........................................................................................................ 23 Table 2.2.c Recorder locations and recording dates (Emmons et al. 2019). ............................... 26 Table 2.2.d. Detection days by month and year at each recorder location. Effort days of recording are indicated in parentheses (NWFSC unpubl. data). Months with no recorder effort or data are shaded in grey. .............................................................................................................................. 31 Table 5.1.a. Mapping Chinook stocks used within the Shelton et al. model to the FRAM model stocks............................................................................................................................................. 74 Table 5.4.a. Regression statistical summaries for the Council Coastwide EEZ aggregate area. The independent variable in each case is Chinook abundance after z-score transformation (i.e., scaled so that 0 = mean and ±1 means 1 SD above or below the mean), and the "coefficient" gives the modeled effect on the log odds scale of a 1 SD change in abundance. Dependent variables are labeled under the column “Regression”. Lag effects described indicate the abundance variable used was either 1 (lag 1) or 2 (lag 2) years prior to the observed dependent variable. ................ 80 Table 5.4.b. Regression statistical summaries for the North of Cape Falcon aggregate area. ...... 81 Table 5.4.c. Regression statistical summaries for the South of Cape Falcon aggregate area ...... 82 Table 5.4.d. Regression statistical summaries for the Salish Sea aggregate area. ....................... 83 Table 5.4.e. Regression statistical summaries for the South West / West Coast of Vancouver Island aggregate area. .............................................................................................................................. 84 Table 5.4.f. Regression statistical summaries
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