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Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK
systems Article How We Understand “Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK Michael C. Jackson Centre for Systems Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7TS, UK; [email protected]; Tel.: +44-7527-196400 Received: 11 November 2020; Accepted: 4 December 2020; Published: 7 December 2020 Abstract: Many authors have sought to summarize what they regard as the key features of “complexity”. Some concentrate on the complexity they see as existing in the world—on “ontological complexity”. Others highlight “cognitive complexity”—the complexity they see arising from the different interpretations of the world held by observers. Others recognize the added difficulties flowing from the interactions between “ontological” and “cognitive” complexity. Using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK, and the responses to it, the purpose of this paper is to show that the way we understand complexity makes a huge difference to how we respond to crises of this type. Inadequate conceptualizations of complexity lead to poor responses that can make matters worse. Different understandings of complexity are discussed and related to strategies proposed for combatting the pandemic. It is argued that a “critical systems thinking” approach to complexity provides the most appropriate understanding of the phenomenon and, at the same time, suggests which systems methodologies are best employed by decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, such crises. Keywords: complexity; Covid-19; critical systems thinking; systems methodologies 1. Introduction No one doubts that we are, in today’s world, entangled in complexity. At the global level, economic, social, technological, health and ecological factors have become interconnected in unprecedented ways, and the consequences are immense. -
Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science
Santa Fe Institute. February 14, 2002 9:04 a.m. Taylor page 1 Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science Richard Taylor 1 INTRODUCTION If the Jackson Pollock story (1912–1956) hadn’t happened, Hollywood would have invented it any way! In a drunken, suicidal state on a stormy night in March 1952, the notorious Abstract Expressionist painter laid down the foundations of his masterpiece Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952 by rolling a large canvas across the oor of his windswept barn and dripping household paint from an old can with a wooden stick. The event represented the climax of a remarkable decade for Pollock, during which he generated a vast body of distinct art work commonly referred to as the “drip and splash” technique. In contrast to the broken lines painted by conventional brush contact with the canvas surface, Pollock poured a constant stream of paint onto his horizontal canvases to produce uniquely contin- uous trajectories. These deceptively simple acts fuelled unprecedented controversy and polarized public opinion around the world. Was this primitive painting style driven by raw genius or was he simply a drunk who mocked artistic traditions? Twenty years later, the Australian government rekindled the controversy by pur- chasing the painting for a spectacular two million (U.S.) dollars. In the history of Western art, only works by Rembrandt, Velazquez, and da Vinci had com- manded more “respect” in the art market. Today, Pollock’s brash and energetic works continue to grab attention, as witnessed by the success of the recent retro- spectives during 1998–1999 (at New York’s Museum of Modern Art and London’s Tate Gallery) where prices of forty million dollars were discussed for Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952. -
Laplace's Deterministic Paradise Lost ?
“We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements Laplace’s deterministic paradise lost of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.” Miguel Angel Fuentes Santa Fe Institute, USA Pierre-Simon Laplace, ~1800 Instituto Balseiro and CONICET, Argentina Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Comments: Heisenberg uncertainty principle In the framework of quantum mechanics -one of the most successful created theories- is not possible to know -at the Einstein was very unhappy about this apparent randomness same time- the position and velocity of a given object. (~1927) in nature. His views were summed up in his famous phrase, 'God does not play dice.' ∆v ∆x m > h v v v (from Stephen Hawking’s lecture) ? Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute In chaotic (deterministic) systems Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) x(t) Not chaotic trajectory x(0) = c ∆x ± t ? Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) Many process can happen between regular-chaotic behavior Chaotic trajectory Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 r values are densely interwr values oarevedenselyn andinterwoneovfindsen and onea sensitifinds a sensitive dependenceve dependence ononparameterparametervalues.values. -
Learning from Benoit Mandelbrot
2/28/18, 7(59 AM Page 1 of 1 February 27, 2018 Learning from Benoit Mandelbrot If you've been reading some of my recent posts, you will have noted my, and the Investment Masters belief, that many of the investment theories taught in most business schools are flawed. And they can be dangerous too, the recent Financial Crisis is evidence of as much. One man who, prior to the Financial Crisis, issued a challenge to regulators including the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, to recognise these flaws and develop more realistic risk models was Benoit Mandelbrot. Over the years I've read a lot of investment books, and the name Benoit Mandelbrot comes up from time to time. I recently finished his book 'The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets - A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward'. So who was Benoit Mandelbrot, why is he famous, and what can we learn from him? Benoit Mandelbrot was a Polish-born mathematician and polymath, a Sterling Professor of Mathematical Sciences at Yale University and IBM Fellow Emeritus (Physics) who developed a new branch of mathematics known as 'Fractal' geometry. This geometry recognises the hidden order in the seemingly disordered, the plan in the unplanned, the regular pattern in the irregularity and roughness of nature. It has been successfully applied to the natural sciences helping model weather, study river flows, analyse brainwaves and seismic tremors. A 'fractal' is defined as a rough or fragmented shape that can be split into parts, each of which is at least a close approximation of its original-self. -
Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences
Introduction Self-organized complexity in the physical, biological, and social sciences Donald L. Turcotte*† and John B. Rundle‡ *Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853; and ‡Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 he National Academy of Sciences convened an Arthur M. A complex phenomenon is said to exhibit self-organizing TSackler Colloquium on ‘‘Self-organized complexity in the phys- complexity only if it has some form of power-law (fractal) ical, biological, and social sciences’’ at the NAS Beckman Center, scaling. It should be emphasized, however, that the power-law Irvine, CA, on March 23–24, 2001. The organizers were D.L.T. scaling may be applicable only over a limited range of scales. (Cornell), J.B.R. (Colorado), and Hans Frauenfelder (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM). The organizers had no Networks difficulty in finding many examples of complexity in subjects Another classic example of self-organizing complexity is drain- ranging from fluid turbulence to social networks. However, an age networks. These networks are characterized by the concept acceptable definition for self-organizing complexity is much more of stream order. The smallest streams are first-order streams— elusive. Symptoms of systems that exhibit self-organizing complex- two first-order streams merge to form a second-order stream, ity include fractal statistics and chaotic behavior. Some examples of two second-order streams merge to form a third-order stream, such systems are completely deterministic (i.e., fluid turbulence), and so forth. Drainage networks satisfy the fractal relation Eq. -
Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Applied Sciences
v.;.;.:.:.:.;.;.^ ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Oivisipn 2000 Please be aware that all of the Missing Pages in this document were originally blank pages BARC/2OOO/E/OO3 GOVERNMENT OF INDIA ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Division BHABHA ATOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE MUMBAI, INDIA 2000 BARC/2000/E/003 BIBLIOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION SHEET FOR TECHNICAL REPORT (as per IS : 9400 - 1980) 01 Security classification: Unclassified • 02 Distribution: External 03 Report status: New 04 Series: BARC External • 05 Report type: Technical Report 06 Report No. : BARC/2000/E/003 07 Part No. or Volume No. : 08 Contract No.: 10 Title and subtitle: Role of nonlinear dynamics and chaos in applied sciences 11 Collation: 111 p., figs., ills. 13 Project No. : 20 Personal authors): Quissan V. Lawande; Nirupam Maiti 21 Affiliation ofauthor(s): Theoretical Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 22 Corporate authoifs): Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai - 400 085 23 Originating unit : Theoretical Physics Division, BARC, Mumbai 24 Sponsors) Name: Department of Atomic Energy Type: Government Contd...(ii) -l- 30 Date of submission: January 2000 31 Publication/Issue date: February 2000 40 Publisher/Distributor: Head, Library and Information Services Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 42 Form of distribution: Hard copy 50 Language of text: English 51 Language of summary: English 52 No. of references: 40 refs. 53 Gives data on: Abstract: Nonlinear dynamics manifests itself in a number of phenomena in both laboratory and day to day dealings. -
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School Introduction to Nonlinear Dynamics Instructor: Liz Bradley Department of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder CO 80309-0430 USA [email protected] www.cs.colorado.edu/∼lizb Syllabus: 1. Introduction; Dynamics of Maps chs 1 & 10 of [52] • a brief tour of nonlinear dynamics [34] (in [18]) • an extended example: the logistic map – how to plot its behavior – initial conditions, transients, and fixed points – bifurcations and attractors – chaos: sensitive dependence on initial conditions, λ, and all that – pitchforks, Feigenbaum, and universality [23] (in [18]) – the connection between chaos and fractals [24], ch 11 of [52] – period-3, chaos, and the u-sequence [33, 36] (latter is in [18]) – maybe: unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] 2. Dynamics of Flows [52], sections 2.0-2.3, 2.8, 5, and 6 (except 6.6 and 6.8) • maps vs. flows – time: discrete vs. continuous – axes: state/phase space [10] • an example: the simple harmonic oscillator – some math & physics review [9] – portraying & visualizing the dynamics [10] • trajectories, attractors, basins, and boundaries [10] • dissipation and attractors [44] • bifurcations 1 • how sensitive dependence and the Lyapunov exponent manifest in flows • anatomyofaprototypicalchaoticattractor: [24] – stretching/folding and the un/stable manifolds – fractal structure and the fractal dimension ch 11 of [52] – unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] – shadowing – maybe: symbol dynamics [27] (in [14]); [29] • Lab: (Joshua Garland) the logistic map and the driven pendulum 3. Tools [2, 10, 39, 42] • ODE solvers and their dynamics [9, 35, 37, 46] • Poincar´esections [28] • stability, eigenstuff, un/stable manifolds and a bit of control theory • embedology [30, 31, 32, 41, 48, 49, 47, 54] ([41] is in [39] and [47] is in [55];) • Lab: (Joshua Garland) nonlinear time series analysis with the tisean package[1, 32]. -
Worldviews, Science and Us: Interdisciplinary Perspectives
October 13, 2010 10:36 Proceedings Trim Size: 9in x 6in 01˙Diederik INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES ON WORLDS, CULTURES AND SOCIETY DIEDERIK AERTS AND BART D’HOOGHE Center Leo Apostel for Interdisciplinary Studies, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium E-mails: [email protected]; [email protected] RIK PINXTEN Center for Intercultural Communication and Interaction, University of Ghent, Belgium E-mail: [email protected] IMMANUEL WALLERSTEIN Department of Sociology, Yale University, USA E-mail: [email protected] This volume is part of the ‘Worldviews, Science and Us’ series of proceedings and contains several contributions on the subject of interdisciplinary per- spectives on worlds, cultures and societies. It represents the proceedings of several workshops and discussion panels organized by the Leo Apostel Cen- ter for Interdisciplinary studies within the framework of the ‘Research on the Construction of Integrating Worldviews’ research community set up by the Flanders Fund for Scientific Research. Further information about this research community and a full list of the associated international research centers can be found at http://www.vub.ac.be/CLEA/res/worldviews/ The first contribution to this volume, by Koen Stroeken, is entitled ‘Why consciousness has no plural’. Stroeken reflects about the way philo- sophical questions of epistemology influence theories of anthropology. More specifically, he focuses on how the notion of ‘spirit’ plays an important role in many cultures studied by anthropologists, analyzing how different ele- ments of worldviews, but also specific aspects of modern physics, can lead to original hypotheses on this notion. The next contribution, by Hendrik Pinxten, is entitled ‘The relevance 1 WORLDVIEWS, SCIENCE AND US - Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Worlds, Cultures and Society Proceedings of the Workshop on "Worlds, Cultures and Society" © World Scientific Publishing Co. -
Quantum Theory Methods As a Possible Alternative for the Double‑Blind Gold Standard of Evidence‑Based Medicine: Outlining a New Research Program
Foundations of Science https://doi.org/10.1007/s10699-018-9572-0 Quantum Theory Methods as a Possible Alternative for the Double‑Blind Gold Standard of Evidence‑Based Medicine: Outlining a New Research Program Diederik Aerts1 · Lester Beltran1 · Suzette Geriente1 · Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi1,2 · Sandro Sozzo3 · Rembrandt Van Sprundel1 · Tomas Veloz1,4,5 © The Author(s) 2018 Abstract We motivate the possibility of using notions and methods derived from quantum physics, and more specifcally from the research feld known as ‘quantum cognition’, to optimally model diferent situations in the feld of medicine, its decision-making processes and ensu- ing practices, particularly in relation to chronic and rare diseases. This also as a way to devise alternative approaches to the generally adopted double-blind gold standard. Keywords Quantum cognition · Evidence based medicine · Conjunction fallacy · Double- blind gold standard · Chronic disease · Orphan disease · Quantum statistics · Placebo efect · Disability paradox * Suzette Geriente [email protected] Diederik Aerts [email protected] Lester Beltran [email protected] Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi [email protected]; [email protected] Sandro Sozzo [email protected] Tomas Veloz [email protected] 1 Center Leo Apostel for Interdisciplinary Studies, Brussels Free University, Krijgskunde‑ straat 33, 1160 Brussels, Belgium 2 Laboratorio di Autoricerca di Base, 6917 Lugano, Switzerland 3 School of Business and Centre IQSCS, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK 4 Departamento Ciencias Biológicas, Facultad Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andres Bello, 8370146 Santiago, Chile 5 Instituto de Filosofía y Ciencias de la Complejidad, Los Alerces 3024, Ñuñoa, Chile Vol.:(0123456789)1 3 D. -
Mild Vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Those Risks That Matter
with empirical sense1. Granted, it has been Mild vs. Wild Randomness: tinkered with using such methods as Focusing on those Risks that complementary “jumps”, stress testing, regime Matter switching or the elaborate methods known as GARCH, but while they represent a good effort, Benoit Mandelbrot & Nassim Nicholas Taleb they fail to remediate the bell curve’s irremediable flaws. Forthcoming in, The Known, the Unknown and the The problem is that measures of uncertainty Unknowable in Financial Institutions Frank using the bell curve simply disregard the possibility Diebold, Neil Doherty, and Richard Herring, of sharp jumps or discontinuities. Therefore they editors, Princeton: Princeton University Press. have no meaning or consequence. Using them is like focusing on the grass and missing out on the (gigantic) trees. Conventional studies of uncertainty, whether in statistics, economics, finance or social science, In fact, while the occasional and unpredictable have largely stayed close to the so-called “bell large deviations are rare, they cannot be dismissed curve”, a symmetrical graph that represents a as “outliers” because, cumulatively, their impact in probability distribution. Used to great effect to the long term is so dramatic. describe errors in astronomical measurement by The good news, especially for practitioners, is the 19th-century mathematician Carl Friedrich that the fractal model is both intuitively and Gauss, the bell curve, or Gaussian model, has computationally simpler than the Gaussian. It too since pervaded our business and scientific culture, has been around since the sixties, which makes us and terms like sigma, variance, standard deviation, wonder why it was not implemented before. correlation, R-square and Sharpe ratio are all The traditional Gaussian way of looking at the directly linked to it. -
Bézier Curves Are Attractors of Iterated Function Systems
New York Journal of Mathematics New York J. Math. 13 (2007) 107–115. All B´ezier curves are attractors of iterated function systems Chand T. John Abstract. The fields of computer aided geometric design and fractal geom- etry have evolved independently of each other over the past several decades. However, the existence of so-called smooth fractals, i.e., smooth curves or sur- faces that have a self-similar nature, is now well-known. Here we describe the self-affine nature of quadratic B´ezier curves in detail and discuss how these self-affine properties can be extended to other types of polynomial and ra- tional curves. We also show how these properties can be used to control shape changes in complex fractal shapes by performing simple perturbations to smooth curves. Contents 1. Introduction 107 2. Quadratic B´ezier curves 108 3. Iterated function systems 109 4. An IFS with a QBC attractor 110 5. All QBCs are attractors of IFSs 111 6. Controlling fractals with B´ezier curves 112 7. Conclusion and future work 114 References 114 1. Introduction In the late 1950s, advancements in hardware technology made it possible to effi- ciently manufacture curved 3D shapes out of blocks of wood or steel. It soon became apparent that the bottleneck in mass production of curved 3D shapes was the lack of adequate software for designing these shapes. B´ezier curves were first introduced in the 1960s independently by two engineers in separate French automotive compa- nies: first by Paul de Casteljau at Citro¨en, and then by Pierre B´ezier at R´enault. -
Towards a Theory of Social Fractal Discourse: Some Tentative Ideas
Page 1 of 16 ANZAM 2012 Towards a Theory of Social Fractal Discourse: Some Tentative Ideas Dr James Latham Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] Amanda Muhleisen PhD Candidate, Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] Prof Robert Jones Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] ANZAM 2012 Page 2 of 16 ABSTRACT The development of chaos theory and fractal geometry has made significant contribution to our understanding of the natural world. As students of organization, chaos theory provides an opportunity to broaden our thinking beyond the linear and predictable with its presumed stability, in order to embrace chaos rather than stability as the ‘default’ state for organization. This demands we think in new ways about organizational theory and practice. It also creates a schism in the fabric of our knowledge - a divide to be bridged. By taking the scientific concept of fractals and applying it to a social theory of discourse, this paper hopes to emerge some tentative ideas around developing a theory of social fractal discourse. Keywords: chaos theory, instability, organizing as process, critical discourse analysis, complexity The aim of this paper is to outline a number of tentative ideas around the development of a theory of social fractal discourse. It will focus on qualities and features of fractal and chaotic systems. Drawing on ideas from chaos and complexity theory, we will argue that discourse can be fractal. While there is some difference in theoretical constructs within the complexity literature, we will use the terms fractal and chaos interchangeably throughout this paper.