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Country Briefing: Eurozone Country Briefing: Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents Real GDP 1-2 Industrial Production 3-5 Purchasing Managers Indexes 6 Merchandise Trade 7 Retail Sales 8 Unemployment 9 Consumer & Business Confidence 10 Consumer Prices 11-12 ECB Central Bank Rate 13 Government Bond Yields 14 Stock Markets 15 October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Real GDP Figure 1. 20 20 REAL GDP: EUROZONE 10 (quarterly percent change, saar) 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 Total (-39.4) -20 -30 -30 -40 Q2 -40 -50 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 60 60 40 40 20 20 Domestic Demand (9.4) Q2 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 100 100 50 50 Household Spending (15.8) Q2 0 0 -50 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 100 100 Gross Fixed 50 Capital Formation (4.6) 50 0 Q2 0 -50 -50 yardeni.com -100 -100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. Page 1 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Real GDP Figure 2. 30 30 REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar) 20 20 Government Spending (5.0) 10 10 Q2 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 120 120 100 100 80 80 Exports of 60 Goods & Services (9.0) 60 40 40 20 20 Q2 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 yardeni.com -80 -80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 90 90 70 70 50 50 Imports of Goods & Services (9.4) 30 30 10 Q2 10 -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 -50 yardeni.com -70 -70 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. Page 2 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 3. 120 120 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2015=100, sa) 115 115 110 110 Total Excluding 105 Construction 105 Manufacturing Jul 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. Figure 4. 45 45 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 40 (yearly percent change) 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Total Excluding 20 Construction (7.4) 20 15 Manufacturing (8.4) 15 10 10 Jul 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 yardeni.com -35 -35 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities. Page 3 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 5. 125 125 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2015=100, sa) 115 115 105 105 Jul 95 95 85 85 Capital Goods 75 Consumer Goods 75 65 65 55 55 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 160 160 140 140 120 120 Consumer Durable Goods Jul Consumer Nondurable Goods 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 120 120 110 110 Jul 100 100 90 90 80 80 Intermediate Goods Energy 70 70 yardeni.com 60 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 4 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 6. 100 100 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) 50 50 Capital Goods Consumer Goods Jul 0 0 -50 -50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 150 150 100 100 50 50 Jul 0 0 Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable -50 Goods -50 -100 -100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 40 40 20 20 Jul 0 0 Intermediate Goods Energy -20 -20 yardeni.com -40 -40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 5 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 7. 62 62 EUROZONE: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* 58 58 54 54 50 50 Dec 46 46 42 42 38 38 34 34 30 30 26 26 22 22 18 18 14 14 yardeni.com 10 10 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 * An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: IHS Markit. Figure 8. 70 70 EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING PMI* 60 60 Dec 50 50 40 40 yardeni.com 30 30 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 * An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: IHS Markit. Page 6 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Merchandise Trade Figure 9. 40 40 EUROZONE: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion euros, nsa) 30 30 Balance 20 Jul 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 250 250 (billion euros, sa) 225 225 Exports 200 Jul 200 Imports 175 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 50 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60 60 (yearly percent change) 40 Exports 40 Imports 20 20 Jul 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 7 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales Figure 10. 120 120 EUROZONE: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (2010=100, sa) 115 115 Jul 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 yardeni.com 80 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Figure 11. 30 30 EUROZONE: RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (yearly percent change) Latest (3.2) 20 20 10 10 Jul 0 0 -10 -10 yardeni.com -20 -20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 8 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Unemployment Figure 12. 12.5 12.5 EUROZONE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 Latest (7.5) 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.5 Aug 7.5 yardeni.com 7.0 7.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Figure 13. EUROZONE: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED 3.8 3.8 (millions, sa) 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 Aug 2.2 2.2 yardeni.com 2.0 2.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Page 9 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer & Business Confidence Figure 14. 130 130 EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* (long-term average=100, sa) 120 120 Sep 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 yardeni.com 60 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 * The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), and retail trade (5%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission. Figure 15. 50 50 EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS 40 (percent balance, sa) 40 30 Industrial (14.1) 30 Services (15.1) Consumer (-4.0) 20 Retail Trade (1.3) 20 Construction (7.5) Sep 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 yardeni.com -50 -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: European Commission.
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