Country Briefing: Eurozone
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 1, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Real GDP 1-2 Industrial Production 3-5 Purchasing Managers Indexes 6 Merchandise Trade 7 Retail Sales 8 Unemployment 9 Consumer & Business Confidence 10 Consumer Prices 11-12 ECB Central Bank Rate 13 Government Bond Yields 14 Stock Markets 15
October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Real GDP Figure 1. 20 20 REAL GDP: EUROZONE 10 (quarterly percent change, saar) 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 Total (-39.4) -20
-30 -30
-40 Q2 -40
-50 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
60 60
40 40
20 20 Domestic Demand (9.4) Q2 0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 -60 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
100 100
50 50 Household Spending (15.8)
Q2 0 0
-50 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
100 100
Gross Fixed 50 Capital Formation (4.6) 50
0 Q2 0
-50 -50
yardeni.com -100 -100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.
Page 1 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Real GDP Figure 2. 30 30 REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar)
20 20
Government Spending (5.0) 10 10
Q2
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
120 120
100 100
80 80 Exports of 60 Goods & Services (9.0) 60 40 40
20 20 Q2 0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40
-60 -60 yardeni.com -80 -80 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
90 90
70 70
50 50 Imports of Goods & Services (9.4) 30 30
10 Q2 10
-10 -10
-30 -30
-50 -50
yardeni.com -70 -70 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.
Page 2 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 3. 120 120 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2015=100, sa) 115 115
110 110 Total Excluding 105 Construction 105 Manufacturing Jul 100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.
Figure 4. 45 45 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 40 (yearly percent change) 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Total Excluding 20 Construction (7.4) 20 15 Manufacturing (8.4) 15 10 10 Jul 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 yardeni.com -35 -35 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.
Page 3 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 5. 125 125 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (2015=100, sa) 115 115
105 105 Jul 95 95
85 85 Capital Goods 75 Consumer Goods 75
65 65
55 55 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
160 160
140 140
120 120 Consumer Durable Goods Jul Consumer Nondurable Goods 100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
120 120
110 110 Jul
100 100
90 90
80 80 Intermediate Goods Energy 70 70
yardeni.com 60 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 4 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Industrial Production Figure 6. 100 100 EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change)
50 50
Capital Goods Consumer Goods Jul 0 0
-50 -50 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
150 150
100 100
50 50
Jul 0 0 Consumer Durable Goods Consumer Nondurable -50 Goods -50
-100 -100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
40 40
20 20
Jul
0 0
Intermediate Goods Energy -20 -20
yardeni.com -40 -40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 5 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Purchasing Managers Indexes Figure 7. 62 62 EUROZONE: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs* 58 58
54 54
50 50 Dec 46 46
42 42
38 38
34 34
30 30
26 26
22 22
18 18
14 14 yardeni.com 10 10 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: IHS Markit.
Figure 8. 70 70 EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING PMI*
60 60
Dec
50 50
40 40
yardeni.com 30 30 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity. Soure: IHS Markit.
Page 6 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Merchandise Trade Figure 9. 40 40 EUROZONE: MERCHANDISE TRADE (billion euros, nsa) 30 30 Balance 20 Jul 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
250 250 (billion euros, sa) 225 225 Exports 200 Jul 200 Imports
175 175
150 150
125 125
100 100
75 75
50 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
60 60 (yearly percent change)
40 Exports 40 Imports
20 20 Jul
0 0
-20 -20
-40 -40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 7 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Retail Sales Figure 10. 120 120 EUROZONE: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (2010=100, sa) 115 115 Jul
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
yardeni.com 80 80 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Figure 11. 30 30 EUROZONE: RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES (yearly percent change) Latest (3.2) 20 20
10 10
Jul
0 0
-10 -10
yardeni.com -20 -20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 8 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Unemployment Figure 12. 12.5 12.5 EUROZONE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) 12.0 12.0
11.5 11.5
11.0 11.0
10.5 10.5
10.0 10.0
9.5 9.5
9.0 9.0
8.5 Latest (7.5) 8.5
8.0 8.0
7.5 Aug 7.5
yardeni.com 7.0 7.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Figure 13. EUROZONE: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED 3.8 3.8 (millions, sa)
3.6 3.6
3.4 3.4
3.2 3.2
3.0 3.0
2.8 2.8
2.6 2.6
2.4 2.4 Aug 2.2 2.2
yardeni.com 2.0 2.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 9 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer & Business Confidence Figure 14. 130 130 EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* (long-term average=100, sa)
120 120 Sep
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
yardeni.com 60 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), and retail trade (5%) confidence indicators. Source: European Commission.
Figure 15. 50 50 EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS 40 (percent balance, sa) 40
30 Industrial (14.1) 30 Services (15.1) Consumer (-4.0) 20 Retail Trade (1.3) 20 Construction (7.5) Sep 10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30 -30
-40 -40
yardeni.com -50 -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: European Commission.
Page 10 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Prices Figure 16. 5 5 EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) 4 4
Total 3 Aug 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
3 3
Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco 2 2
Aug
1 1
0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
8 8
6 6 Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco
4 4
2 Aug 2
0 0
yardeni.com -2 -2 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 11 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Consumer Prices Figure 17. 25 25 EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (yearly percent change) 20 Energy (15.4) 20
15 Aug 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
8 8
Housing (5.2) 6 6 Aug
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10 10
8 8
6 6 Health (0.4)
4 4
2 2
Aug 0 0
yardeni.com -2 -2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Page 12 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com ECB Central Bank Rate Figure 18. 5 5 ECB REFINANCING RATE (daily, percent)
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 2/5 0
-1 -1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: European Central Bank.
Page 13 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Government Bond Yields Figure 19. 18 18 EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS 16 (percent, monthly) 16 D NIRP QEE E QE 14 14
Brexit 12 12
10 Yields 10 France (-0.11) 8 Germany (-0.30) 8 Italy (0.63) 6 Spain (0.22) 6
4 4
2 2
Aug 0 Aug 0
yardeni.com -2 -2 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 20. 10 10 EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS 9 (percent, daily) 9
8 Brexit 8 France (0.12) 7 Germany (-0.23) 7 Italy (0.82) 6 Spain (0.44) 6
5 5
4 D NIRP QE QEE 4
3 3
2 2
1 1 10/1 0 0
-1 -1 yardeni.com -2 -2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy. QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 14 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Stock Markets Figure 21. 6000 13000 EUROPE IRELAND (Dow Jones Stoxx 50) (ISEQ Overall) 11000 5000 (euro-based) 9000 4000 9/30 10/1 7000 3000 5000
2000 3000
1000 1000 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
7500 55000 FRANCE ITALY 50000 6500 (CAC 40) 10/1 (FTSE MIB) 45000 5500 40000 35000 4500 30000 3500 10/1 25000 20000 2500 15000 1500 10000 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
18000 10/1 750 GERMANY NETHERLANDS 16000 (DAX) 10/1 (Amsterdam) 650 14000 550 12000 10000 450 8000 350 6000 250 4000 2000 150 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
7000 2000 GREECE SPAIN 6000 (Athens, SE) (Madrid General Index)
5000 yardeni.com 1500 4000
3000 1000 2000 10/1 1000 10/1 0 500 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
200-day moving average Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 15 / October 1, 2021 / Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on [email protected].