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Economic Trends No 87, Fourth Quarter 1395(2016/2017)

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Economic Trends No 87, Fourth Quarter 1395(2016/2017) No. 87 Fourth Quarter 1395 (2016/17) Key Economic Indicators Real Sector National Accounts Energy Manufacturing Construction Price Trends External Sector Balance of Payments External Debt Foreign Trade Exchange Rate Financial Sector Deposit and Lending Rates Monetary and Credit Aggregates Tehran Stock Exchange Activities Fiscal Sector Government Budget Appendix Monetary and Credit Policy Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Prepared by: Economic Research and Policy Department Publisher: Public Relations Department P.O. Box: 15875/7177 TEHRAN – IRAN Telex: (98)(21) 213965-8 Tel.: (98)(21) 29951 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.cbi.ir SYMBOLS __ Negligible fraction. .. Figures not available. Figures are provisional. More than 500 percent increase. ▲ Figures are revised. The figure is not a significant decimal fraction. Calculation (of percentage change) is not possible. Published in: July 2017 In the Name of God, The Compassionate, The Merciful Key Economic Indicators in 1395 Population and Labor Force External Sector (million US$) Population 79.9 million Current Account Balance 16,388 Urban 59.1 million Trade Balance (goods account) 20,843 1 Rural 20.8 million Exports (FOB) 83,978 Population Growth 1.2 percent Imports (FOB) 63,135 Population Density 48.5 per sq km Total External Debt (year-end) 8,481 Active Population 25.8 million Exchange Rate (US$/IRR) Interbank Market (average) Rls. 31,389 Unemployment Rate 12.4 percent Urban 13.7 percent Rural 8.9 percent Male 10.5 percent Monetary Sector (growth rate, percent) Female 20.7 percent (Esfand 1395 compared with Esfand 1394) 15-29 years old 25.9 percent Liquidity (M2) 23.2 29.2 percent 15-24 years old Money (M1) 19.3 Source: Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). Quasi-money 23.8 1 Includes non-resident population. Non-public Sector Deposits 23.9 Real Sector GDP Growth (1390=100) Oil 12.5 percent Government Fiscal Position (trillion Rls.) Non-oil 3.3 percent Revenues 1,459.9 Performance of 1395 (current prices; trillion Rls.) Expenses 2,070.2 GDP (at basic price) 12,723 Disposal of Non-financial Assets 742.8 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2,664 Acquisition of Non-financial Assets 421.0 Private Consumption Expenditures 6,495 Public Consumption Expenditures 1,752 Net Lending / Borrowing 288.5 Changes in Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Goods and Services Tehran Stock Exchange (1390=100) Average of 1395 compared with Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) (year-end) 77,230.0 average of 1394 (inflation rate) 9.0 percent Esfand 1395 compared with previous month 2.0 percent Value of Shares and Rights Traded Rls. 537.9 trillion Esfand 1395 compared with same month previous year 11.9 percent Volume of Shares and Rights Traded 252.6 billion CBI Economic Trends 1 1395, Q4 1 National Accounts (at Current Prices) (trillion rials) GDP at Sectoral value-added Non-oil basic Oil Agriculture Industries & Services 2 GDP Manufacturing price 3 Construction mining & mining (Figures in parentheses indicate share percent) 1392 9,843 8,171 1,671 969 2,588 1,459 750 4,802 (100.0) (83.0) (17.0) (9.8) (26.3) (14.8) (7.6) (48.8) 1393 11,260 9,725 1,535 1,127 3,029 1,681 851 5,748 (100.0) (86.4) (13.6) (10.0) (26.9) (14.9) (7.6) (51.0) 1394 11,129 10,088 1,041 1,197 2,723 1,494 697 6,381 (100.0) (90.6) (9.4) (10.8) (24.5) (13.4) (6.3) (57.3) 1395 12,723 11,159 1,564 1,267 2,889 1,651 662 7,265 (100.0) (87.7) (12.3) (10.0) (22.7) (13.0) (5.2) (57.1) 1393 : Q3 2,790 2,443 347 289 779 419 242 1,416 (100.0) (87.6) (12.4) (10.4) (27.9) (15.0) (8.7) (50.8) Q4 2,519 2,273 247 39 742 421 195 1,549 (100.0) (90.2) (9.8) (1.5) (29.4) (16.7) (7.8) (61.5) 1394 : Q1 2,731 2,412 319 277 658 372 154 1,529 (100.0) (88.3) (11.7) (10.1) (24.1) (13.6) (5.6) (56.0) Q2 3,107 2,836 272 592 733 393 197 1,563 (100.0) (91.3) (8.7) (19.1) (23.6) (12.6) (6.3) (50.3) Q3 2,652 2,414 238 287 645 357 160 1,533 (100.0) (91.0) (9.0) (10.8) (24.3) (13.5) (6.0) (57.8) Q4 2,639 2,427 212 41 686 372 187 1,756 (100.0) (92.0) (8.0) (1.5) (26.0) (14.1) (7.1) (66.5) 1395 : Q1▲ 2,837 2,482 355 285 623 372 114 1,640 (100.0) (87.5) (12.5) (10.0) (21.9) (13.1) (4.0) (57.8) Q2▲ 3,534 3,163 371 627 762 410 200 1,840 (100.0) (89.5) (10.5) (17.7) (21.6) (11.6) (5.6) (52.1) Q3▲ 3,133 2,727 406 311 698 415 143 1,781 (100.0) (87.0) (13.0) (9.9) (22.3) (13.3) (4.6) (56.9) Q4 3,219 2,787 432 45 807 454 205 2,004 (100.0) (86.6) (13.4) (1.4) (25.1) (14.1) (6.4) (62.2) Source: Economic Accounts Department, CBI. 1 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. 2 Discrepancy in GDP and the total value-added of sectors is due to imputed bank service charges. 3 Discrepancy in total is due to value-added in "water, electricity and gas" sub-sector. CBI 2 Economic Trends 1395, Q4 1 National Accounts (at Constant 1390 Prices) (trillion rials) GDP at Sectoral value-added Non-oil basic Oil Agriculture Industries & Services 2 GDP Manufacturing price 3 Construction mining & mining (Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change over the previous year) 1392 5,854 5,013 841 385 1,561 764 424 3,231 (-0.3) (0.5) (-5.1) (5.5) (-4.2) (-4.2) (-9.2) (2.3) 1393 6,043 5,163 880 405 1,646 823 421 3,277 (3.2) (3.0) (4.5) (5.4) (5.4) (7.6) (-0.9) (1.4) 1394 5,947 5,003 943 424 1,546 781 349 3,202 (-1.6) (-3.1) (7.2) (4.6) (-6.1) (-5.0) (-17.0) (-2.3) 1395 6,691 5,167 1,524 442 1,580 832 303 3,316 (12.5) (3.3) (61.6) (4.2) (2.2) (6.6) (-13.1) (3.6) (Figures in parentheses indicate percentage change over respective period of the previous year) 1393 : Q3 1,490 1,273 217 105 413 201 116 796 (4.6) (4.2) (7.1) (3.0) (7.2) (7.0) (8.8) (2.5) Q4 1,435 1,216 219 13 409 211 96 835 (-1.6) (-0.8) (-5.8) (6.1) (0.5) (8.7) (-17.9) (-2.0) 1394 : Q1 1,465 1,236 229 97 373 189 80 806 (-1.0) (-1.5) (1.8) (11.3) (-4.2) (-6.5) (-11.9) (-1.7) Q2 1,605 1,372 233 210 410 202 98 793 (-2.1) (-3.4) (6.4) (5.0) (-5.8) (-3.3) (-16.9) (-4.0) Q3 1,409 1,186 223 102 369 189 79 757 (-5.4) (-6.8) (2.8) (-2.2) (-10.7) (-6.0) (-31.8) (-4.9) Q4 1,469 1,210 259 15 395 202 92 846 (2.3) (-0.5) (18.0) (8.3) (-3.4) (-4.5) (-4.2) (1.3) 1395 : Q1▲ 1,575 1,214 360 101 354 190 58 801 (7.5) (-1.8) (57.6) (3.5) (-5.1) (0.8) (-27.6) (-0.7) Q2▲ 1,812 1,425 388 219 422 211 94 827 (12.9) (3.9) (66.2) (4.1) (3.0) (4.7) (-4.0) (4.2) Q3▲ 1,646 1,250 396 107 384 210 66 802 (16.8) (5.4) (77.7) (5.0) (4.1) (11.2) (-16.8) (6.0) Q4 1,658 1,277 381 15 420 221 86 887 (12.9) (5.6) (47.1) (4.4) (6.4) (9.5) (-6.8) (4.9) Source: Economic Accounts Department, CBI. 1 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. 2 Discrepancy in GDP and the total value-added of sectors is due to imputed bank service charges. 3 Discrepancy in total is due to value-added in "water, electricity and gas" sub-sector. CBI Economic Trends 3 1395, Q4 1 National Accounts (at Current Prices) (trillion rials) Gross fixed capital formation Consumption GDP at Gross expenditures Private Public Total Net National market national exports income price Private Public Machin- Construc- Machin- Construc- savings ery tion ery tion (Figures in parentheses indicate share percent) 1392 9,934 4,527 918 754 1,219 99 449 2,522 341 8,037 4,252 (100.0) (45.6) (9.2) (7.6) (12.3) (1.0) (4.5) (25.4) (3.4) 1393 11,517 5,334 1,184 942 1,312 123 624 3,000 193 9,175 4,824 (100.0) (46.3) (10.3) (8.2) (11.4) (1.1) (5.4) (26.1) (1.7) 1394 11,414 5,741 1,449 817 1,083 121 573 2,594 54 8,963 3,967 (100.0) (50.3) (12.7) (7.2) (9.5) (1.1) (5.0) (22.7) (0.5) 1395 13,151 6,495 1,752 901 921 123 719 2,664 210 10,385 4,620 (100.0) (49.4) (13.3) (6.9) (7.0) (0.9) (5.5) (20.3) (1.6) (Figures in parentheses indicate share percent) 1393 : Q3 2,875 1,358 270 .
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