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Prioritizing Quantum Computing Applications for Business Advantage Research Insights Prioritizing quantum computing applications for business advantage Charting a path to quantum readiness How IBM can help Enterprises around the world are in various stages of assessing and experimenting with quantum computing applications for their business success. This IBM Institute for Business Value Research Insight provides an innovative quantum prioritization matrix to help these enterprises understand and select applications based on factors such as their ability to provide “quantum speed up” and “time-to-value.” Therefore, this report is intended for quantum decision- makers, funders, designers, and programmers as well as anyone else with a deep interest in the future of quantum computing. For more information, please visit ibm.com/ quantum-computing. By Dr. Elena Yndurain and Lynn Kesterson-Townes Talking points Quantum investment Quantum disruption is accelerating Quantum computing is likely to disrupt Investment in quantum technologies is booming. business operations and industry value A veritable who’s who of technology companies are developing quantum computers, custom semiconductors, chains. Now is the time to engage. and communication devices. Government investments are Many initial quantum applications and equally significant, ranging from USD tens of millions to algorithms will be proprietary to the billions in countries and confederations such as China, the US, Canada, the UK, the European Union, Israel, Australia, individual enterprises or ecosystems and Russia.1 that develop them. Even though universal quantum computing has not yet Quantum prioritization reached mainstream commercialization, we predict specific applications could confer significant competitive The path to quantum adoption requires advantage for some organizations in the coming years. informed decisions about which quantum Almost all organizations—90 percent according to Gartner— computing use cases are key to specific will be active in quantum computing projects and utilize quantum computing as a service by 2023.2 As a result, the business needs. Prioritizing these use overall quantum computing market is forecast to reach cases is a critical undertaking. USD 240 million by 2025, a 48 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR).3 Many quantum applications—even Use case selection early ones—are expected to have significant disruptive Identifying a diverse mix of use cases helps implications for industries and businesses. As a result, many of today’s business leaders may need to investigate prepare an organization to respond rapidly the advantages of quantum computing just to preserve to breakthrough advances in quantum marketplace viability. computing technology. As quantum technology moves closer to commercialization, specific applications are emerging in areas such as chemical modeling, scenario simulation, optimization, and artificial intelligence/machine learning. For example, some quantum algorithms offer theoretical (and significant) speed-up over classical solutions, particularly for such thorny math problems as solving linear systems, searching unstructured data, conducting Monte Carlo simulations, combinatorial match, and number factorization. These algorithms are now being tested to identify the business advantages they may potentially deliver. 1 Rapid growth. Getting ready for Through 2025, the quantum quantum computing computing market is forecast to grow at an annual compound As quantum computers begin to become commercially growth rate of nearly 50 percent.4 viable, businesses will need to explore and assess potential applications specific to their competitive contexts. And because of their computational power Earnest experimentation. and speed, some quantum applications may yield early, Since 2016, when IBM launched proprietary quantum advantage that could meaningfully affect business models or industry value chains. Because the first quantum computing cloud quantum is a new type of computing, early familiarity and service, a global community of assessment are critical for rapid adoption once the users has performed hundreds technology is ready for widespread use. of billions of executions using Prototype quantum systems already exist and are available quantum systems.5 to the general public at no cost. At the end of 2019, more than 200,000 users had run hundreds of billions of execu- tions on IBM’s quantum computers and simulators through Revenue impact. the IBM Cloud. Based upon these experiments, more than When fault-tolerant systems are 200 third-party research papers on practical quantum achieved in a single industry— applications have been published.7 financial services, for example— Evaluating the potential business impact of quantum quantum computing could computing applications can be challenging, particularly drive more than USD 10 billion given the complexity of this emerging technology. of revenue in the first year of Organizations need a way to evaluate which potential quantum computing applications are better positioned to 6 adoption. deliver optimum business benefits for them. 2 A quantum computing “prioritization matrix” helps organizations address this need. Executives from various Insight: What is quantum disciplines—including strategy, operations, innovation, computing? IT, and risk—can evaluate the potential impact of quantum computing on their businesses, prioritize quantum applica- “Classical” computers represent data as either a one or a tions, and subsequently measure quantum advantage as zero via a bit. Quantum computers can represent data as their organizations move from early adoption to a one or a zero, or as a combination of a one and a zero via mainstream quantum computing. a qubit. Qubits can be in multiple basis states at the same time, which is known as quantum superposition. Next is Our prioritization matrix categorizes quantum computing the peculiar phenomenon of quantum entanglement. applications into four distinct categories: Due to entanglement, even though two or more quantum objects may be physically separated, their behavior – “Early Bloomer” applications are the most feasible to contains correlations that cannot be realized classically. implement today Finally, quantum states can undergo interference to – “Late Bloomer” applications promise significant add and cancel wave amplitudes. These three quantum quantum advantage in the future mechanical properties provide the potential exponential computational speed up of qubits.8 – “Wild Card” applications may or may not ultimately deliver clear business advantage – “Mature Industry” applications can deliver competitive Insight: “Quantum advantage” advantage on a business scale. Quantum advantage is the point where, in certain cases, quantum computers can demonstrate a significant performance improvement over today’s classical computers for a certain problem. “Significant” means that a quantum computation will be either hundreds—or thousands—of times faster than classical computation, will need only a fraction of the memory required by a classical computer, or can perform tasks that simply aren’t possible with today’s mainstream technology. Source: IBM Institute for Business Value. 3 Insight: Are there quantum A proven prioritization framework Our quantum prioritization matrix, illustrated in Figure 1, computing applications helps executives evaluate each application in three relevant to the advancement dimensions: 1) its theoretical capacity to deliver technological advantage over classical computing of your business? solutions (Y-axis); 2) its operational readiness (X-axis); and 3) its ability to drive unique business value for a specific To leverage quantum computing sooner rather than enterprise (bubble size). later, the following steps can be helpful: Prioritizing quantum applications in this way provides – Assess your enterprise’s inefficiencies that a complete portfolio overview, visually graphing an classical computers cannot currently improve, organization’s decision trade-offs. As a result, executives such as those associated with product can make more informed decisions about their development and operations. Examples include organization’s quantum adoption based on their strategic problems with complex interdependencies, such priorities, such as following a first-to-market strategy, as simulating molecules for materials or drug a cost-optimization approach, or acting as an industry development or constructing interdependent disruptor. work schedules. – Determine when your business is forced to employ approximations to respond to pressing Figure 1 market demands. Examples include problems involving complex networks such as distribution, Quantum prioritization framework transportation, communications, or logistics. – Evaluate whether your organization is encountering difficulty in comprehensively computing large amounts of complex data in a timely manner. Examples include adaptive Use case C customer and vendor interactions, proactive executive decision support, targeted employee training, and other AI applications. Use case B Use case A Quantum speed-up Near-term technical feasibility Ability to drive unique business value Low High 4 The Y-axis: quantum speed-up Determining speed-up Overall, the promise of quantum advantage is to efficiently solve particular business problems that are not currently Several algorithms already present quantum speed-up. feasible (or prohibitively expensive) to resolve due to Quantum Amplitude Estimator (QAE) boosts the success today’s computational constraints.9 Correspondingly,
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