PROPERTY INSIGHTS Malaysia Quarter 2, 2011
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PROPERTY INSIGHTS Malaysia Quarter 2, 2011 Market Overview Executive summary • The Malaysian economy registered a slower growth of 4.6% year-on-year (YOY) in Q1 2011 following a growth of 4.8% YOY in Q4 2010. The economic growth in Q2 2011 could ease further with a lower level of exports and industrial production. • Prime office rents moved upwards slightly in Q2 2011 but continued to be under pressure with the anticipation of substantial supply in the pipeline (Figure 1). Figure 1 • The retail market continuesFigure 2 to be active but the increase in inflation could dampen consumer spending. Nevertheless, the sector remains optimistic with forecasted retail sale growth of 7% in Q2 2011 after registering growth of 5.1% in Q1 2011, 50% lower than forecasted earlier. • The residential sector is relatively quiet with selective new launches but affordable housing is a recurring theme for the Government to tackle. • The investment market enjoyed an active quarter driven by REITdeals with a focus on retail properties and commercial properties. Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 1 Trends & Updates Economic overview • The Malaysian economy registered a slower growth of 4.6% YOY in Q1 2011, after a 4.8% and 5.3% growth in Q4 and Q3 2010 respectively (Figure 2). According to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the growth in Q1 2011 was driven by expansion in domestic demand while there was slower growth in external demand. Figure 2 • In Q1 2011, most sectors maintained their positive growth with the services and manufacturing sectors continuing to provideFigure the impetus, 3 expanding by 5.9% and 5.4% YOY respectively. The construction sector expanded 3.8% on account of higher residential and non-residential activities. A smaller decline of 0.3% was registered in the agriculture sector, while the mining sector contracted 3.0% due to lower production of crude oil. • Growth in Q2 2011 is likely to slow down with lower export volume and a downturn in industrial production. Most analysts are beginning to revise downwards the GDP growth forecasts for the year but BNM continued to maintain a 5-6% economic growth forecast for 2011 whilst the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has projected a moderate growth of 5.2% for 2011 before rising upward to 5.5% in 2012. • Following the recent reduction in subsidies for petrol and other essentials and hike in electricity tariff, inflation is likely to increase this year although the improving strength of the Ringgit will moderate prices of imported goods. The inflation rate in Malaysia in June 2011 was 3.5% YOY due to higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport. • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for 2011 is forecasted to exceed RM30bn compared to RM29.3bn in 2010, with the first quarter of 2011 recording a total FDI of RM11bn. • The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was raised by 25 basis points to 3% in May after remaining constant at 2.75% since August 2010. Bank Negara will continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy, with an intention toward interest normalisation that is appropriate and consistent with the assessment of growth and inflation prospects. • Given external uncertainties, growth will be driven principally by the various domestic investments under the Economic TransformationFigure 4 Programme (ETP). Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 1 Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 2 Offices • There appeared to be an uptick in market activities in the office sector, as a result of the various Entry Point Projects under the ETP. In particular, we noted that the oil and gas sector was very active in the leasing market. The multi-billion Ringgit MRT project has also impacted office space demand in a positive way. • Net absorption is estimated to be about 862,000 sq ft in Q2 2011, an increase of 69% QOQ (Figure 3). Figure 3 Figure 3 The average prime rent also strengthened marginally to about RM6.20 per sq ft, while overall occupancy rate remained stableFigure at around 4 87% (Figure 4). Figure 4 Figure 5 Major leases signed Figurein the review 5 period included UOB for multiple floors in istaV Tower. • Total stock increased by about 1.1 million sq ft with the completion of 4 buildings, namely Dijaya Plaza, Menara Worldwide, Menara Bank Islam and Southgate. A similar quantum is expected to be completed in the second half of the year. • A few of these new buildings have strong precommitment, in particular Menara Bank Islam which is 36% pre-committed whilst Dijaya Plaza reported a 75% pre-commitment rate. It will be interesting to see how Southgate will fare given its location away from the main CBD area and surrounded by mainly industrial uses. Figure 6 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 9 Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 • Capital value is stable, although prices of newly launched strata-titled space can be up to RM1,400 per sq ft at KL Sentral, which appeared to be very aggressive given a potential oversupply situation developing in the mid-term and upward trend in interest rate. There is no new en-bloc transaction noted for office buildings in the quarter, although Hap Seng Consolidated is reported to be willing to consider offers above RM1,000 per sq ft for their 50% share in Menara Citibank. • Overall, market sentiment is more positive. However there is much uncertainty on the external front and a slowdown in the global major economies will affect Malaysia, being an open economy, although it is trying hard to reduce this dependency and raise domestic investment to a higher level. Rents are forecasted to trend lower up to 2013, as a substantial amount of space is expected to be completed next year (Figure 5). Figure 5 Retail Figure 6 • The Consumer Sentiment Index dipped marginally to 108.2 in Q2 2011 compared to 117.2 points in the previous quarter, reflecting concerns over rising prices and inflation resulting from the removal of government subsidies and a 7.2% hike in electricity tariff. The rapid rise in the inflation rate will have an adverse impact on household disposal income leading to declining purchasing power. • The retail sales growth for the whole of 2011 is expected to be maintained at 6% due to concerns over high oil prices, declining purchasing power and continuous surges in prices of goods and cost of operation. The estimated retail sales growth for Q2 2011 has been revised downward to 7% from the 12.6% projected earlier by the Malaysia Retailers Association (MRA), but it remained higher compared to the 5.1% in Q1 2011. • Promoting tourism through the abolishment of duties for 300 selected items in Budget 2011 is making an impact on tourist shopping expenditure. For Q1 2011, tourist shopping expenditure increased by 35%, exceeding the target of 29%. • The occupancy rate of retail centres remained stable and high at an average of 90% in the city and 87% outside of Kuala Lumpur. Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 • Viva Home, an integrated lifestyle, home and entertainment mall occupying 688,000 sq ft of NLA and originally scheduled to be ready at the end of 2010, finally opened in May 2011 (Table 1). Table 1 Upcoming retail centres in 2011 Name of development Est NLA (sq ft) Location 1 Shamelin 420,000 Cheras, KL Festival Mall 450,000 Setapak Solaris 2 300,000 Mont’ Kiara Suria KLCC (extension) 140,000 KLCC Viva Home 688,000 Jalan Loke Yew CittaFigure Mall 5 424,000 Ara Damansara Source: DTZ Research • About 520,000 sq ft of new space was added in the quarter with the existing stock staying at around 42.17 million in Klang Valley (Table 2 and Figure 6). Table 2 Existing retail stock (NLA) Q2 2011 QOQ (sq ft) change (%) Kuala Lumpur 21,493,519 5% Outside Kuala Lumpur 20,680,988 2% Source: DTZ Research Figure 6 • The ETP hasFigure identified 7 integrated health and wellness resort developments to boost retail expenditure through spa products and services and tourism, with an investment of RM3bn and potential 11,000 jobs. It was enhanced with the official launch of the Golden Horses Health Sanctuary by the Health Minister in February as reported in the sixth ETP progress update held in June 2011. • 15 ETP initiatives were unveiled in June, including launching The Unified Malaysia Sale for the first time from 15 June 2011 till 31 August 2011. With tourist arrivals still growing, visitors spending will cushion waning domestic consumption. Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Residential • The quarter saw the completion of Phase 1 of Seni Mont Kiara, Kiara 3, Twins@Damansara Heights and three projects in U-Thant area which included Gallery@U-Thant, 7@U-Thant and Identiti U-Thant. • Another 2,847 units of condominiums are expected to be completed by the end of this year. Most of them are outside the city centre (Figure 7). Figure 7 Figure 8 • In the city centre, the expected completions in the second half of 2011 include Crest@Sultan Ismail, Katana II, Brunsfield Embassyview, The Pearl and an unnamed project by Bandar Park at U-Thant (Table-3). Table 3 Upcoming high end condominiums in Kuala Lumpur city centre in 2011 Project Units Crest@Sultan Ismail 278 Katana II 40 Brunsfield Embassyview 283 The Pearl 177 Bandar Park project 12 Source: DTZ Research • KLCC area will see the launch of two more projects by the end of this year.