General Election 2019
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1 Acknowledgements The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well- being. It funds research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare, and Justice. It also funds student programmes that provide opportunities for young people to develop skills in quantitative and scientific methods. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics and the Ada Lovelace Institute. The Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation. Visit www.nuffieldfoundation.org This project was supported by an advisory board with expertise in education research and policy across the phases. The authors are very grateful to Robbie Coleman, Gavan Conlon, Elizabeth Fordham, Claire Harding, Russell Hobby, Sandra McNally, and Lindsey Macmillan, for their advice and steers during the production of this report. The views remain those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the advisory board. Published December 2019 Education Policy Institute. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. For more information, visit: creativecommons.org 2 About the authors Jon Andrews is Deputy Head of Research and Director for School System and Performance in EPI. He has published a wide range of studies including: ‘The performance of multi-academy trusts and local authorities’, ‘School revenue balances in England’, ‘Access to special schools in England’, and ‘Grammar schools and social mobility’. He worked in the Department for Education from 2003 to 2016 as a statistician. Bobbie Mills, is a Senior Researcher at the Education Policy Institute, leading work on curriculum and school performance. Before joining EPI, Bobbie was part of the Research and Evaluation team at Ambition School Leadership, leading on the impact evaluation of the charity’s school leadership development programmes. Emily Hunt is a Senior Researcher at the Education Policy Institute, leading work on school choice and admissions. Emily has recently authored ‘Fair access to schools?’ and ‘Secondary school choice in England’. Emily worked at the Department for Education as an economist from 2002 to 2016. She led a broad portfolio of strategic analytical work including a major research programme on the performance of disadvantaged pupils in London and an evidence review to inform the department’s Social Mobility plan ‘Unlocking Talent, Fulfilling Potential’. Felix Bunting is a researcher currently focused on the early years at the Education Policy Institute. Before joining EPI, Felix studied Physics at the University of Oxford. Over the course of his studies, he interned as a quantitative analyst within industry, market research and public sector consultancy. He graduated with an MPhys in 2019, with his Master’s project focused on the theoretical basis of machine learning. About the Education Policy Institute The Education Policy Institute is an independent, impartial, and evidence-based research institute that promotes high quality education outcomes, regardless of social background. We achieve this through data-led analysis, innovative research and high-profile events. Education can have a transformative effect on the life chances of young people, enabling them to fulfil their potential, have successful careers, and grasp opportunities. As well as having a positive impact on the individual, good quality education and child wellbeing also promotes economic productivity and a cohesive society. Through our research, we provide insight, commentary, and a constructive critique of education policy in England – shedding light on what is working and where further progress needs to be made. 3 Our research and analysis span a young person's journey from the early years through to entry to the labour market. Our core research areas include: ▪ Benchmarking English Education ▪ School Performance, Admissions, and Capacity ▪ Early Years Development ▪ Vulnerable Learners and Social Mobility ▪ Accountability, Assessment, and Inspection ▪ Curriculum and Qualifications ▪ Teacher Supply and Quality 3 ▪ Education Funding ▪ Higher Education, Further Education, and Skills Our experienced and dedicated team works closely with academics, think tanks, and other research foundations and charities to shape the policy agenda. 4 Contents Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 14 Report structure ................................................................................................................................ 14 Coverage ........................................................................................................................................... 15 Priority 1: The early years ..................................................................................................................... 16 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 16 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 18 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 18 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 22 Priority 2: School accountability ........................................................................................................... 24 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 24 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 27 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 27 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 29 Priority 3: School funding ...................................................................................................................... 31 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 31 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 34 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 35 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 42 Priority 4: Teacher recruitment and retention ..................................................................................... 44 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 44 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 46 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 47 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 50 Priority 5: Access to good schools......................................................................................................... 52 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 52 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 55 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 55 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 59 Priority 6: Post-16 education, including technical and vocational ....................................................... 61 The current landscape ...................................................................................................................... 61 What should a new government do? ............................................................................................... 64 Manifesto commitments .................................................................................................................. 64 5 Overall assessment ........................................................................................................................... 70 Priority 7: Post-18 education ................................................................................................................ 71 The current