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A Framework for Megaregion Analysis: Development and Proof of Concept

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A Framework for Megaregion Analysis: Development and Proof of Concept A Framework for Megaregion Analysis: Development and Proof of Concept Prepared by: National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education at the University of Maryland Frederick W. Ducca Ting Ma Sabyasachee Mishra Timothy Welch Parsons Brinckerhoff Rick Donnelly Tara Weidner Rolf Moeckel ECONorthwest Terry Moore Randall Pozdena University of Illinois Brian Deal Arnab Chakraborty David Simmonds Consultancy David Simmonds Federal Highway Administration Supin Yoder May 2013 Funding provided by the Federal Highway Administration, Exploratory Advanced Research Program [This Page Intentionally Left Blank] Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. I FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................................................. I CHESAPEAKE MEGAREGION .............................................................................................. III CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................... VII 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 1 2. MEGAREGION CONCEPT ...................................................................................................... 3 2.1. THE NEED FOR A MEGAREGION VIEW .................................................................. 3 2.2. MEGAREGIONAL ISSUES ........................................................................................... 3 2.3. MEGAREGION BOARD ................................................................................................ 5 2.4. FRAMEWORK FOR MEGAREGIONAL ANALYSIS: OVERVIEW .......................... 7 3. MEGAREGION CASE STUDY .............................................................................................. 29 4. MARKET ANALYSIS – CHESAPEAKE MEGAREGION ................................................... 31 4.1. ISSUES........................................................................................................................... 31 4.2. BOUNDARY ................................................................................................................. 32 5. TOOL DEVELOPMENT – CHESAPEAKE MEGAREGION ............................................... 65 5.1. SCENARIO SELECTION – HIGH ENERGY PRICES ............................................... 65 5.2. SCENARIO ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK .................................................................... 68 5.3. SCENARIO RESULTS ................................................................................................. 75 6. MEGAREGION BOARD – SUGGESTED RESPONSE ........................................................ 97 6.1. REFERENCE – 2030 ..................................................................................................... 97 6.2. HIGH-ENERGY PRICE ................................................................................................ 98 6.3. HOMELAND SECURITY .......................................................................................... 100 7. CONCLUSION – NEED FOR MEGAREGION VIEW ........................................................ 101 8. REFERENCE .......................................................................................................................... 103 [This Page Intentionally Left Blank] List of Figures Figure 1 Framework for A Megaregion Analysis Tool .................................................................. II Figure 2 Multi-Tiered Approach ..................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3 Megaregion Analysis Framework .................................................................................... 8 Figure 4 Endogenous Data Flows ................................................................................................. 19 Figure 5 Two Dimensions of Model Integration .......................................................................... 20 Figure 6 Horizontal Integration of Modules ................................................................................. 21 Figure 7 MPO/DOT Model Integration Options .......................................................................... 23 Figure 8 Ross’ Map of the Washington DC-Virginia Megaregion ............................................... 33 Figure 9 Maryland State Transportation Model Coverage Area .................................................. 33 Figure 10 Development of Chesapeake Megaregion Modeling Area .......................................... 34 Figure 11 Subregions in the Chesapeake Megaregion .................................................................. 35 Figure 12 Map of FAF Zones within the Chesapeake Megaregion .............................................. 36 Figure 13 Major Transportation Infrastructure within the Chesapeake Megaregion ................... 38 Figure 14 Household by Income Group by Subregion, 2007 ....................................................... 39 Figure 15 Employment by Type by Subregion ............................................................................. 40 Figure 16 Industry Distribution .................................................................................................... 41 Figure 17 Area Types within the Chesapeake Megaregion .......................................................... 42 Figure 18 Growth of Ports (Tonnage), 2007-2030 ....................................................................... 43 Figure 19 Access Modes to Ports.................................................................................................. 44 Figure 20 Mode Share of Good Produced in the Chesapeake Megaregion, 2007 ........................ 45 Figure 21 Commodity Flow Production by Truck, Chesapeake Megaregion, by Selected Industry Types (Millions of Dollar, 2009) .................................................................................................. 46 Figure 22 Location of Selected Subregions for Commodity Flow Analysis ................................ 46 Figure 23 Reliance on Internal Demand ....................................................................................... 47 Figure 24 Origin of Goods Consumed in the Chesapeake Megaregion ....................................... 48 Figure 25 Commute Flows by Megaregion Residents .................................................................. 49 Figure 26 Dollar Value of Freight Flows in the Chesapeake Megaregion ................................... 50 Figure 27 Freight Flows in Tons in the Chesapeake Megaregion ................................................ 51 Figure 28 Dollar Value of Freight Flows from the City of Baltimore .......................................... 52 Figure 29 Dollar Value of Freight Flows from Washington, D.C. ............................................... 53 Figure 30 Dollar Value of Freight Flows from Richmond City ................................................... 53 Figure 31 Dollar Value of Freight Flows into the City of Baltimore ........................................... 54 Figure 32 Dollar Value of Freight Flows into Washington, D.C.................................................. 55 Figure 33 Dollar Value of Freight Flows into Richmond ............................................................. 55 Figure 34 Freight Tonnage Flows into Richmond, Seven Largest County Flows, All Sectors .... 56 Figure 35 Richmond to Baltimore Supply Chain, Seven Largest County Flows, Selected Sectors ....................................................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 36 Freight Tonnage Flows into Baltimore, Seven Largest County Flows, All Sectors .... 59 Figure 37 Baltimore to Richmond Supply Chain, Seven Largest County Flows, Selected Sectors ....................................................................................................................................................... 59 Figure 38 Impact of 1 Percent Change in Baltimore City and County Production on Selected Counties – Magnitude (in Dollar) ................................................................................................. 61 Figure 39 Impact of 1 Percent Change in Baltimore City and County Production on Selected Counties – Industry Share ............................................................................................................. 61 Figure 40 Impact of 1 Percent Change in Richmond Production on Selected Counties – Magnitude (in Dollars) .................................................................................................................. 62 Figure 41 Impact of 1 Percent Change in Richmond Production on Selected Counties .............. 63 Figure 42 Chesapeake Megaregion Analysis Framework ............................................................ 69 Figure 43 Delphi Panel Trip Generation Rates ............................................................................. 72 Figure 44 Input Consistency ......................................................................................................... 74 Figure 45 Household Change 2007-2030 ..................................................................................... 75 Figure 46 Employment
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