COVID-19 Public Information Presentation April 10, 2020
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
COVID-19 Public Information Presentation April 10, 2020 Note: COVID-19 data as of 12:00pm on 4/10/20 unless stated otherwise Disclaimer CONFIDENTIALITY This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security. Recipients of this presentation agree that none of Access Holdings Management Company LLC (“Access Holdings”) or its affiliates or its or their respective partners, members, employees, officers, directors, agents, or representatives shall have any liability for any misstatement or omission of fact or any opinion expressed herein. Each recipient further agrees that it will not copy, reproduce, or distribute this presentation, in whole or in part, to any person or party including any employee of the recipient without the prior written consent of Access Holdings. The information contained herein is preliminary, is provided for discussion purposes only, is only a summary of key information, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the portfolio companies of Access Holdings, and is subject to change without notice. The information in this presentation is not presented with a view to providing investment advice with respect to any security, or making any claim as to the past, current or future performance thereof, and Access Holdings expressly disclaims the use of this presentation for such purposes. Statements contained in this presentation are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions, and beliefs of Access Holdings as of the date hereof. Such statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Neither Access Holdings nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and nothing contained herein should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance of the Fund or any portfolio company of Access Holdings named herein. Unless otherwise noted, the information contained herein is preliminary and subject to change, and Access Holdings and its members, partners, stockholders, managers, directors, officers, employees, and agents do not have any obligation to update any of such information. Certain figures in this presentation have been rounded. In addition, certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources and / or prepared by third-parties, and in certain cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for the purposes of this presentation, Access Holdings assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and such information has not been independently verified by it. Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “predicts,” “potential,” “continue,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “projects,” “future,” “targets,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates” (or the negatives thereof) or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Forward looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond the control of Access Holdings. Actual results, performance, prospects, or opportunities could differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. Additional risks of which Access Holdings is not currently aware also could cause actual results to differ. The forward-looking events discussed in this presentation may not occur. Access Holdings undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2 COVID-19 Public Information Presentation Overview . Access Holdings is actively tracking multiple data sources related to the COVID-19 virus and will continue to actively monitor this fluid and dynamic global crisis . The information contained herein is updated and recorded internally on a regular basis to provide valuable information for portfolio companies and investors. Access builds upon this data internally to drive and moderate the velocity of its decision making . Access Holdings has consolidated the following data as a resource for its professional network 3 Tracking the Impact of COVID-19 . Breadth, depth, and duration of infections . Mortality and recovery rates Health Impact . Examination of velocity and staging of care capacity . Infection trajectory . Resource strain . Global economic output . U.S. economic impact Economic Impact . National unemployment data . U.S. capital markets . Education Social Impact . Wellness . Mental health 4 Health Impact: COVID-19 Key Data . Current case count in the U.S. is nearly 478k Confirmed COVID -19 Cases in the U.S. 3 • While new cases and hospitalizations in large MSAs such as New York seem to be flattening, there has been recent growth of the virus spreading to rural towns • Actual case count is estimated to be up to 10x higher due to a lack of testing and unreported asymptomatic cases (~4.78 million+) 1 • At its current trajectory, U.S. diagnosed case count will likely exceed 576k by the end of the weekend (4/12/20) 2 . In other developed countries with similar healthcare quality to that of the U.S., we observe a median death rate of ~3.7% of diagnosed case count • U.S. death rate is currently 3.7% with 17.9k reported deaths • Actual death rate likely much lower as ~60% of cases show mild to no symptoms and are not tested / recorded (actual death rate could be less than 0.5%) 1 Death Rate: Modern / Western Medical Systems 4 COVID -19 Trajectory Log Scale 4,5 Death Rate (% Countries with the "Best Diagnosed Fatalities to Population Death Rate (% of Diagnosed 1,000,000 Medical Systems" Cases to Date Date (Thousands) of Population) Cases) 100,000 United Kingdom 65,077 8,931 22,500 13.7% 0.0397% Switzerland 24,548 1,001 8,700 4.1% 0.0115% 10,000 Sweden 9,685 870 10,100 9.0% 0.0086% 1,000 Australia 6,203 53 25,500 0.9% 0.0002% Germany 119,624 2,607 83,800 2.2% 0.0031% 100 The Netherlands 23,097 2,511 17,100 10.9% 0.0147% New Zealand 1,283 2 4,800 0.2% 0.0000% 10 Norway 6,244 108 5,400 1.7% 0.0020% France 117,749 12,210 65,200 10.4% 0.0187% 1 Canada 21,243 531 37,700 2.5% 0.0014% 4/1 3/2 3/8 4/7 3/6 4/3 4/5 3/4 4/9 2/17 2/21 2/15 3/12 2/19 3/18 3/16 3/14 3/10 2/27 2/23 2/25 3/22 2/29 3/28 3/26 3/24 3/20 United States 477,953 17,910 331,000 3.7% 0.0054% 3/30 Total / Average 872,706 46,734 611,800 5.4% 0.0076% Median 3.7% South Korea Germany USA 1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 4. Worldometer 2. Trajectory assumes case count increases by ~7% each day, in line with recent historical data 5. As of 4/9/20 3. NBC News 5 Health Impact: COVID-19 Key Data (cont.) COVID -19 Fatality Rate by Comorbidity 1 COVID -19 Fatality Rate by Sex – All Global Cases 1 Death Rate: Death Rate: Death Rate: Death Rate: Pre-Existing Condition Sex Confirmed Cases All Cases Confirmed Cases All Cases Cardiovascular disease 13.2% 10.5% Male 4.7% 2.8% Diabetes 9.2% 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 8.0% 6.3% Hypertension 8.4% 6.0% Female 2.8% 1.7% Cancer 7.6% 5.6% No pre -existing conditions 0.9% Estimated COVID -19 Fatalities by Age in U.S. Labor Force without Protective Measures 2,3 Percentage of the Potential Death Rate Potential Deaths Percentage Transmission # of Employees w/o Precautions Worker Age Employed Workforce (All Cases of COVID-19) 25% 50% 75% (Thousands) (Thousands) 16-19 yrs 5,150 3% 0.2% 10.3 2.6 5.2 7.7 20-24 yrs 14,172 9% 0.2% 28.3 7.1 14.2 21.3 25-34 yrs 35,807 23% 0.2% 71.6 17.9 35.8 53.7 35-44 yrs 33,127 21% 0.3% 99.4 24.8 49.7 74.5 45-55 yrs 32,042 20% 0.9% 272.4 68.1 136.2 204.3 Sub Total 120,298 76% 0.4% 482.0 120.5 241.0 361.5 55-65 yrs 26,893 17% 2.5% 658.9 164.7 329.4 494.2 65+ yrs 10,347 7% 8.8% 910.5 227.6 455.3 682.9 Sub Total 37,240 24% 4.2% 1,569.4 392.4 784.7 1,177.1 Total 157,538 100% 1.3% 2,051.4 512.9 1,025.7 1,538.6 COVID-19 disproportionately affects older males with some form of a pre-existing health condition 1. Worldometer 2. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3. World Health Organization 6 Health Impact: COVID-19 Key Data (cont.) COVID -19 Survival Data 1 Plastic / Airborne Copper Cardboard Temperature Alcohol Content Stainless Steel 3 hours 4 hours 24 hours 72 hours <86 °F <60% Although data suggests moderate levels of alcohol concentration and high temperatures will likely kill the virus, survival data outside of laboratories at this point is inconclusive in identifying concrete solutions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 COVID -19 Climate Data 2,3,4 COVID-19 Infection Statistics in Warmer Climates 2019 Average State Total Cases Infection Rate Total Deaths Mortality Rate Temperature (°F) Arizona 60.3 3,112 0.042% 97 3.1% Florida 70.7 17,531 0.080% 390 2.2% Louisiana 66.4 18,283 0.394% 702 3.8% New Mexico 53.4 989 0.047% 17 1.7% Texas 64.8 11,426 0.039% 222 1.9% Average 63.1 0.120% 2.6% COVID-19 Infection Statistics in Colder Climates 2019 Average State Total Cases Infection Rate Total Deaths Mortality Rate Temperature (°F) Illinois 51.8 16,422 0.130% 528 3.2% Michigan 44.4 21,504 0.214% 1,076 5.0% Minnesota 41.2 1,242 0.022% 50 4.0% New York 45.4 161,504 0.829% 7,844 4.9% Wisconsin 43.1 2,885 0.049% 111 3.8% Average 44.2 0.249% 4.2% National data suggests regional climates have significant impacts on the spread of COVID-19 and experts believe the virus will likely become a seasonal occurrence until a vaccine is developed 1.