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ELECTION 2020 Polling: What the Heck?

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ELECTION 2020 Polling: What the Heck? ELECTION 2020 Polling: What the Heck? • We learned nothing from 2016. We thought polls still mattered - we paid way too much attention to polls, which have even more limitations and less utility than we realized. • What happened? It was a terrible night for polling. They were wrong, almost all of them, almost everywhere. Axios says “save yourself time and stop watching them so closely in elections.” "The political polling profession is done," leading Republican pollster Frank Luntz said on Tuesday night. "It is devastating for my industry." No Blue Wave Republicans picked up a few seats in the House Notable House Races House Ag Chairman Collin Peterson lost – often imperiled Former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala lost her Florida seat Q-Anon candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene won in Georgia Senate is 47-48 as of this writing – mixed bag Incumbent Gardner loses in CO, incumbent McSally loses in AZ Jones loses to Tuberville in AL (one R pickup) Republicans prevail in close (or high- profile) races in IA, MT, SC, KY, Maine Still to be called – 1 in GA, NC, MI, AK and runoff in GA special (1/5/21) House Democrats Agenda Speaker Pelosi has already said she intends to have two “great, big initiatives” — expanding health care access and rebuilding American infrastructure — that are longtime Democratic priorities aligned with Joe Biden’s platform and taking on fresh urgency in the COVID-19 crisis. And the economy more broadly will have to be a priority - a lot of other initiatives can be shoehorned into those categories, think about other Democratic priorities that will naturally flow from those - labor (FMLA, minimum wage), tax, etc But…. don’t assume that Speaker Pelosi will overreach here – if there is a Democratic sweep, these won’t be big messaging bills. Democrats will have to govern now - and there will be a tension from the Progressive arm of the party, but she will pass bills that will have a chance of passage in the Senate. They will still be Democratic priorities and left leaning, but I don’t think that Representative Ocasio Cortez and the Progressive Caucus will be happy. If Republicans retain control of the Senate and Biden is President, McConnell and the Republicans are the arbiters of the Republican party and its policies. Prediction - Republicans will get religion on spending. Senate Agenda under Leader McConnell • If President Trump is reelected - Judges Judges Judges • If Biden wins, block judges, block everything? Leader McConnell and Biden served in the Senate together….in fact Biden served in the Senate with several members of the current Senate, and that’s a very exclusive club. Will it matter, can they negotiate? Senate Agenda Under Leader Schumer • In a Trump Administration, will have to work with House to pass some measures that the President might sign. This is where we could see the most wheeling and dealing. President Trump is no longer beholding to the Republican party so he may be willing to make deals with Leader Schumer and the Speaker. • In a Biden Administration, Schumer goes head-to-head with Minority Leader McConnell on federal judges, nominations and policy priorities. But remember, it’s a sweep, not a wave. Possible Changes Afoot • Filibuster - political blockade by a united minority to prevent a Senate vote on a bill. In recent decades, when the minority party won’t relent in its opposition, the majority must hold a so-called cloture vote — requiring a supermajority of 60 votes — to break the blockade and permit the Senate to act on the pending legislation. Ideally for the minority party, if the majority can’t muster 60 votes, either it must compromise with the minority or its legislation dies. • If Democrats have control of the Senate and White House, progressive Democrats may try to change a long- standing Senate rule — the legislative filibuster — to ensure that their agenda can be implemented. Eliminating the filibuster would allow legislation to pass with 50 votes instead of the 60 required in recent decades for any significant initiatives. • in 2013 it was eliminated for votes on Presidential nominations , but not the Supreme Court. • In 2017 a bipartisan group of Senators sent a letter to leader McConnell urging him not to eliminate the filibuster. Many Democrats signers of the letter have changed their position, but some Senators on both sides hold Senate rules as sacrosanct and will want to preserve one of the rules that differentiates the Senate from the House. Possible Changes Afoot Budget reconciliation • Process provides a fast-track process for consideration of bills to implement the policy choices embodied in the annual congressional budget resolution. Instead of needing 60 votes, a reconciliation bill only needs a simple majority in the Senate. • The budget cannot be stalled in the Senate by filibuster, and it does not need the President’s signature. If the budget calls for reconciliation, it tells certain committees to change spending, revenues, or deficits by specific amounts. Each committee writes a bill to achieve its target, and if more than one committee is told to act, the Budget Committee puts the bills together into one big bill. That bill has special status in the Senate. Like the budget, it cannot be filibustered, and only needs a simple majority to pass. What Does It All Mean? • Divided Government – good for business? Checks and balances as intended. No mandate, so neither side can over reach. • “Sweep, but no wave” – Will also temper the Democratic agenda in Congress. Speaker Pelosi can’t overreach because they have to govern and with tight margins in the House and Senate, it gets harder. • Democrats control House/Republicans control Senate and 2nd Trump Term – Groundhog Day - 2018 is 2020 (except COVID) is 2022 (midterms? is 2024?). But look for bigger bolder actions out of the WH because President Trump will call it a mandate. “Fire Fauci,” Acting agency heads, more judges, China, economy, status quo on taxes Not happening today, but to consider • President Elect Biden has said he will create a bipartisan commission on the Judiciary – will consider expanding the Supreme Court • Statehood for Washington, DC and Puerto Rico will create 4 new Senate seats. (House passed a DC statehood bill this summer) U.S. House of Representatives House Leadership REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC Republican Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R, CA-23) Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA-12) Republican Whip Rep. Steve Scalise (R, LA-01) Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer (D, MD-05) Republican Conference Chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R, WY-01) Majority Whip Rep. Jim Clyburn (D, SC-06) Republican Policy Committee Rep. Gary Palmer (R, AL-06) Assistant Speaker Expected to Run Chair Rep. Tony Cardenas (D, CA-29) Rep. David Cicilline (D, RI-01) Rep. Katherine Clarke (D, MA-05) Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D, NY-08) House Committee leaders in the 117th Congress House Committee leaders in the 117th Congress U.S. Senate Senate Leadership REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC Republican Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Democratic Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) Republican Whip Sen. John Thune (R-SD) Democratic Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) Republican Conference Chair Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) Assistant Democratic Leader Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) Republican Policy Committee Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) Policy and Communications Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Chair Chair Vice Chair, Senate Republican Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) Vice Chair of Conference Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Conference Potential Senate committee leaders in the 117th Congress Potential Senate committee leaders in the 117th Congress Biden Tax Proposals Rates on Ordinary Income Reverse the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax cuts for the Wealthy by restoring the 39.6 percent top marginal tax rate, up from 37 percent. Itemized Deductions Cap the benefit of itemized deductions to 28 percent. Credits Expand several reneWable-energy-related tax credits and deductions and end subsidies for fossil fuels. Expand and make permanent the NeW Markets Tax Credit. Establish a Manufacturing Communities Tax Credit. Provide an $8,000 tax credit for individuals With children in childcare. Offer tax credits to small businesses for adopting Workplace savings plans. Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit to older Workers. Biden Tax Proposals Rates on Capital Gains and Dividends Tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income for those earning more than $1 million. Corporate Tax Rate Raise the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent, up from 21 percent. Create a 15% minimum book tax on firms with $100 million or more in net income that pay little to no federal income tax. International Income Double the tax rate on Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI). Payroll Taxes Eliminate the income cap on Social Security taxes. Estate Tax Eliminate step-up in basis. Biden Tax Proposals Other Taxes Reduce incentives for tax havens, evasion, and outsourcing; ensure corporations pay their fair share; and close other tax code loopholes that reward wealth, not work. Stabilize the Highway Trust Fund by securing new revenues. Equalize the tax benefits of defined contribution retirement plans. Disallow tax deductions for prescription drug advertisements LAME DUCK & CALENDAR The Senate is scheduled to return November 9, 2020 Key Election Dates November 3 General Election The House is scheduled to return November 16, 2020 • Leadership Elections November 18-19, 2020 December 14 Electors vote in • New Member Orientation – November 12-21 their states and November 29-December 5 December 23 Certificates of Electoral Votes The current CR expires December 11, 2020 Delivered January 6, 2021 Joint Session of Swearing-in Day: January 4, 2021 Congress to count Electoral Votes Inauguration Day: January 20, 2021 Overview Congress will try to pass four major pieces of legislation in a Lame Duck session.
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