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The International journal of analytical and experimental modal analysis ISSN NO:0886-9367

Determinants of Voting Behaviour in the Assembly Elections in : Theoretical Perspective

Dr. Md Motibur Rahman1 Guest Faculty, Department of Geography Rajendra College, Jai Prakash University, Chapra Email: [email protected]

Rumana Khatun2 Research Scholar, Department of Geography Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh Email: [email protected]

Abstract: Voting bahaviour is a form of electoral behaviour which clearly understands voter’s behaviour that can explain how and why political decision was made. Voting behaviour is also known as political psychology of the electors. The study of determinants of voting behaviour constructs a very significant area of empirical observation. Man is a rational animal in the philosophical sense of term, but he is not so rational in terms of economic and political behaviour. The study of voting behaviour displays the important facts that the behaviour of man is influenced by many socio-economic and political factors and also influences on the minds of the voters. The main purpose of the present study is to focus on the concept and definition of voting behaviour and highlight the significant factors that determine the voting behaviour in the assembly elections in West Bengal.

Key Words:Assembly Election, Determinants, Electoral Geography, Voting Behaviour.

Introduction

Geography provides accurate, orderly, and rational description and interpretation of the variable character of the earth surface. It is that discipline that seeks to describe and interpret the variable character from place to place of the earth as the world of man (Richard Hartshorne, 1959).Geography deals with the spatial distribution of the phenomena and the processes through which such phenomena gets generated. Election is one of such phenomenon. Electoral geography thus deals with not only the distribution of votes but also the culture which leads to voting or choosing a political party.The study of voting behaviour was started in the early 18th century (Jenson, 1969). Gosnel (1930) has attempts made use of aggregate data analysis, using actual election return by geopolitical units i.e. wards, districts etc. Voting behaviour reflect the ways in which people that tend to vote in election and why they vote in that particular way. It also

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reflects the voter‟s choices, preferences, and ideologies during an election. According to Article 326 of the Indian constitution grants Universal adult Suffrage to citizen those are above 18 years of age. V.O. Key, Jr., and Frank Munger (1955, p.4) have observed that voting behaviour is a continuing affirmation of pre-existing political commitments which were forget under the pressure of a major social trauma. The study of voting behaviour has become an important field in the research of electoral geography. Election plays a crucial role in the scale of ideology in channeling conflicts safely into constitutional arenas. Electoral geography has come to study the geographical analysis of referendum, votes in international, national and regional bodies. Electoral geography is the study of the spatial voting behaviour as well as voting patterns and the study of spatial distribution of political phenomena. Vote caste is generally measures through attitudes, perceptions and biases of electorates. In other words, the study of voting behaviour is highly promising in three ways, first the act of voting itself is considered as an open form of political participation and objective manifestation of the political makeup of the voters. During an election, voter‟s ideology, political orientation, judgment and attitude and expectations is an effort to identify one of the most viable alternatives. Secondly, the voting behaviour shows the numerical strength of the various political forces which struggling for power and dominance in the constituency and third, the voting preferences used as a check against the hidden of truth among the respondents their ideologies and political attitudes.

Objectives of the Study The geographical analysis of determinants of voting behaviour in the assembly elections of West Bengal is an important task. The specific objectives of the present study are- I. To study the concept and definition of voting behaviour. II. To analyze socio-economic and political factors of voting behaviour

Data Base Election stands as the backbone of the democracy where people select their political representatives. The present research analysis is based on the secondary source of data.The data related to the socio-economic and political factors of voting behaviour have obtained from the Election Commission of , New Delhi, Chief Electoral office, Kolkata, CSDS (Centre for the study of Developing Society).Census of India, District Statistical Handbook. The secondary data also collected from various published and unpublished research journals, articles, magazines,

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M.phil dissertation, Ph.D. thesis, books, etc. The information regarding the contemporary local issues, determinants of voting behaviour , party strategies and election manifestoes have derived from the contemporary newspaper mainly the Anandabazar Patrika, Pratidin, Bartaman, Times of India, Hindustan Times, .

Significances of the Study The electoral studies give electoral maps that clearly shows where the votes goes favour or against the party.Such studies especially focus on the spatial dimension of electoral politics and very helpful to make a democratic form of government.Through such studies, we can easily identify the important socio-economic and political factors of voting behaviour which helps to politician for their electoral success.

Study Area The study area West Bengal is located in the eastern part of India. In terms of India‟s political scenario, it becomes one of the important state. West Bengal is situated between 85° 50‟ and 89° 50‟ East longitude, and 21° 10‟ and 27° 38‟ North latitude. The state has a total area of 88,750 Sq.kms. (34,267 sq mile). According to 2011 population census, the total population of West Bengal is 90.32 million, population density is 1028 persons per sq km, literacy rate is 74.08%, sex ratio is 950 females per 1000 of males. West Bengal is a home of several religious people i.e. Hindu (70.54%), Muslim (27.01%), Christian (0.72%), Sikh (0.07%), Buddhist (0.31%), Jain (0.07%). It has 31.87 percent urban population and rural population is 68.13 percent, Agriculture is the main dominant occupation of the people of West Bengal.

Fig: 1 Study Area: West Bengal Administrative Division

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Concept and Definitions of Voting Behaviour The word „voting behaviour‟ is not a new concept. In the time of ancient Greece, voting was not much for elections to hold offices that were packed on the jury principles of arbitrary selection. But it was used as decisions of propositions setup before democratic assembly. Voting bahaviour is a form of electoral behaviour which clearly understands voter‟s behaviour that can explain how and why political decision was made. Voting behaviour is also known as political psychology of the electors. Thus, voting behaviour is a means of accumulate individual preferences in to collective decisions during an election, the action of officially indicating one‟s choice of candidate or political party in an election. Voting behaviour is acted as the pedestal of the political pyramid in a democratic election that decisions make at the foundation has the capability to overthrow those at the top. Therefore, voting behaviour perhaps be looked upon as „the basic decision making process in a democracy‟ which describe the process either citizens choose candidates for public offices. In other words, voting behaviour is a means of transforming numerous individuals‟ opinions in to coherent and collective basis for decisions. In an election, voters tend to choose candidates whom they perceived as benefit them the most and having a reasonable for chance of winning, for this voting is a good illustration of rational choice.According to Plano and Riggs “Voting Behaviour is a field of study concerned with the ways in which people tend to vote in public election and the reasons why they vote as they do.” In other words of Samuel S. Eldersveld“voting behaviour involves an analysis of individual psychological processes (perception, emotion, and motivation) and their relation to political action”.

Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour in the Assembly Elections in West Bengal The main determinants of voting behaviour in West Bengal assembly elections are vast and wide ranging and differ from one person to another person. There are three schools of thought which dominate analyzes of voting behaviour such as sociological school of thought, psychological school of thought and thought based on rational choice theory. The sociological thought of voting behaviour focused on the influence of social factors whereas the psychological factors studies the behaviour of voters based on their party affiliations and rational choice model utilizes variables affects choice such as rationality, uncertainty and information. Voting behaviour in West Bengal assembly election is influenced by various factors such as caste, religion, language and community, current events and policy or ideology, election campaigns,

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local issues. So, the voting behaviour studies have identifies the following main political and socio-economic factors that are the key determinants of voting behaviour in West Bengal.

I. Religion: Religion as one of the most important predictors of vote choice and work as a determinant of voting behaviour (Lazarsfeld et al 1944). Broughton and Hans-Martien (2000) has studies that religion plays a crucial role during European elections. In the West Bengal assembly elections, religion is one of the major important factors of voting behaviour. The political parties such as , Trinomool Congress and (Marxist) has considered religion worked as a vote bank. So, the selection of candidate is done with an eye in the presence of a religious majority in a particular constituency. Religious population includes Hindu and Muslim population is two main religious groups that divide the political boundary. The Hindu peoples vote more and support to Communist party of India in 2006 assembly election in West Bengal and governed last thirty four years. In West Bengal the voting behaviour of minorities like Muslims play a major crucial role in the electoral politics. From 2011 to till now the support and votes of Muslim population over Trinomool Congress because TMC has implement various welfare scheme for Muslim population like provide OBC certificate, OBC scholarship, offered salaries to the Imams and Muezzins and distribute cycle to Madrasha students.

II. Castes: In the West Bengal assembly elections, caste continues to be a determinant of voting behaviour. Basically, it has deep source of casteism spread in the society and constitutes an important base of social relations at all the levels. The people cast their votes to their caste candidates only. In the 2011 and 2016 assembly elections in West Bengal, the political parties were selected the candidates in the caste majority constituency. The current chief Minister Shrimati Mamata Banrjee provides and offered economic beneficiary schemes are developed for the development of Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST), for that TMC get the support of SC and ST votes. After the 2006 assembly elections, TMC has implementation the status of Other Backward Class (OBC) to the people of West Bengal. All these reason, caste play a major role as the most important determinants of voting behaviour.

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III. Party Identification: The party identification is means a voter‟s psychological attachment to a political party.The party identification is an important attitude which influences the vote (Campbell et al. 1951).In the 2006 assembly election in West Bengal, the rural people have strong bases of support to parties due to their psychological attachment towards Left Front. The party identification has been shifted towards the Trinomool Congress in 2011 and 2016 assembly elections in West Bengal because of poor performances of Left Front parties. In the 2011 assembly election, most of the people supported and votes to Trinomool Congress as an ideal political party. The bases of party identification of Trinomool Congress have strong because it is a grass roots and ground level political party. It has a political slogan that is „Maa Mati Manus‟ which means „Mother, Motherland and People, for that reason the party identification of Trinomool Congress has been increased day by day.

IV. Personality Factors: The word „personality‟ refers to a multifaceted and stable internal or psychological, structure which influences patterns of a person‟s actions and expressed attitudes (Mondak, 2010). A positive image of a party‟s candidate is a source of popular support for the party. The personality factors differs from election to election, in case of 2006 assembly election in the Beldanga constituency, the people votes to Md Refatullah due to his good behaviour and social workwho was a candidate of Left front. But in 2011 assembly election, in the same constituency the personality factors changed the people‟s voting behaviour to votes Safiujjaman SK who was an Indian National Congress (INC) party candidate. In this way, a personality factor plays a decisive role in the determining of voting behaviour in the West Bengal assembly elections.

V. Candidate Orientation: The candidate orientationis perhaps the most crucial factor for influencing the voter‟s during elections. In the 2006 assembly election, the voter‟s main choice of candidate was Bhudhadev Bhatarchariya (who was the former chief minister of West Bengal) because he had done much support and helped in every angle to the people of West Bengal. But the voter‟s choice of candidate orientation has been shifted towards Trinomool congress party in 2011 and 2016 assembly elections. They choose the Trinomool Congress leader Mamata Bannerjee as their chief Minister and she has work as a CM from 2011 assembly election to till now. The

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people of West Bengal called her „Mamata Di‟ and „Didi‟s party, most of the women of the state follow her as an ideal leader to us. Therefore, the candidate orientation acts as a main role in the determining of voting behaviour.

VI. Local Issues: There is enough evidence to prove that local issues have always important factors which influencing the voting bahaviour as well as the outcome and dimension of the election. In the West Bengal assembly elections some local issues like movement, Singur Tata Nano controversy, lalgarh agitation, the Saradha group financial scandal, the Narada Sting operation Ultadanga and Kolkata flyover collapse, all these local issues are played a great role as the factors of voting behaviour in the assembly elections of West Bengal from 2006 to 2016.

i. Nandigram Movement: Nandigram violence was happened in 2007 in Nandigram village of of West Bengal where the communist party of India (Marxist) forcefully tried to acquire land for SEZ (Special Economic Zone). But the local people of that area did not want to give up their land. Therefore, approximately 70,000 people are evicted from their homes. People of that village started movement against this land acquisition and Trinomool Congress leader lead this movement. When the movement was dangerous and out of control then police opened firing and killed 14 villagers and many people went missing. At that situation the CM Bhudhadev Bhattercharya did not help and support to the victim people. But Trinomool leader support and stay with them in moral help. In this way the local people go against the Communist Party of India (CPM) but favour and support to TMC with the leadership of Mamata Banerjee.

ii. Singur Tata Nano Controversy Singur Tata Nano Controversy was also one of the pathetic incidents to the local people of Singur village in Hooghly district of West Bengal. In 2008 Tata Nano Company wants to build a Nano motor factory in Singur. The government of West Bengal takes over 997 acres farmland to Tata for build Tata Nano factory by using1894 land acquisition act rule. Therefore, the people of that area started movement and go against the government. They did not want to hand over their holly golden farmland to the Tata Company. This movement also headed by Mamata Banerjee and finally the Tata Company go back and left the farmland but these fertile

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farmland turned into barren land and not suitable for any form of cultivation. In this way Singur movement also helped to Mamata Banerjee for her 2011 assembly success in West Bengal.

iii. Lalgarh Incident: The government of West Bengal wants to develop and improvement regarding all necessary infrastructures of lalgarh villages which is located in West Medinipur district of West Bengal. But the villages people did not want it and don‟t accept the proposal of CM Bhudhadev Bhattacharya. So, make an operation named operation lalgarh against the Maoists of the villages. In this way, the situation become serious and Maoists people blast a boom and many people died and injury. Finally, it converted into political war between Left Front and Trinomool Congress. So, this local issue also plays a great role as factor of voting behaviour.

iv. The Saradha Group Financial Scandal: The Saradha group financial scandal was a major financial scam in West Bengal. It was developed by Sudipto Sen and accused political scandal which caused by the collapse of a Ponzi scheme run by the Saradha group. The Saradha Group consists of over 200 private companies. It has been called as Chit funds. The group collected around ₹ 200 to 300 billion from 1.7 million depositors and it collapsed in April 2013. Many politicians such as MPs and MLAs of TMC and Left Front are involved in this scam. The transport minister benefited from it and encouraged people to invest their savings. The black day has been come to Trinomool Congress for the Saradha group financial scandal. But the current CM Mamata Banerjee has assured that She will responsible the victim people and returns their own deposits money. Therefore, despite this financial scam, Trinomool Congress again came to power in the 2016 assembly elections.

v. Ultadanga Flyover Collapse: The Ultadanga flyover collapse was one of the worst human tragedies. The incident was took place in the early Moring at 4.00 am March 3, 2013. The Ultadanga flyover was built exactly two years ago when the Left Front ruled the government of West Bengal. The urban development minister said that “this flyover was built in a hurry so that it could be inaugurated by then CM Bhudhadev Bhattercharya before 2011 assembly election” (NDTV, March 3, 2013). Therefore, the whole blaming goes to the Left Front government and majority of people reject Left Front and its parties, but they fully support and votes to Trinomool Congress.

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vi. Kolkata Flyover Collapse: After the Ultadanga flyover collapse, another dangerous human tragedy is Kolkata flyover collapse which was happened in 31st March 2016. Around fifty plus people died and more than eighty were injured during the incident. The project was started during the time of Left Front government but it complete in the tenure of Trinomool Congress government by Mamata Banerjee. Babul Supriyo said that “the construction work of the flyover was carried on in an unscientific manner and the state administration did not take any lesson even after the collapse of Ultadanga flyover three years ago” (Hindustan times, 1st April 2016). Despite this criticize, Mamata Banerjee won a majority of seats in the 2016 assembly elections because she take responsible for the tragedy and done financial support and develop a positive faith in victim‟s mind.

VII. Election Campaign: Election campaigns are means through which candidates and political parties prepare and present their ideas and positions on issues to the voters during election period. During the electoral campaign use a variety of techniques to reach voters and deliver their massages by traditional and new media, public events, written materials etc. Each political party launches a rigorous election campaigns to influences the voters in its favour. Through the process of electoral campaign the representatives are selected their political leader. In 2006 assembly election, Communist Party of India (Marxist) won a majority of seats, they presents their ideas and elections campaigns through distributed of t-shirt, caps and aprons bearing party symbols to the voters, party workers, and rickshaw pullers (BBC News, 16th April 2006). On the other hand, the Trinomool Congress‟s election campaigns are designed to make the voters believe that the candidate has a zeal and keen enthusiasm for the wellbeing of the people. In the TMC‟s election campaign where comprising a galaxy of film directors, actors, actress, singer in the 2011 and 2016 assembly elections in West Bengal.

VIII. Election Manifestoes: This is also one of the most important factors of voting behaviour in West Bengal assembly elections. During an election, manifestoes have played a vital role of promise and also assurance of a political party to the electorate. The elections manifestoes of various parties from 2006 to 2016 assembly elections are as follows-

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a. Trinamool Congress (TMC) i. To offer employment to 1, 00, 000 unemployed youths under various schemes. ii. To provide 50, 000 houses at very cheap rates every year in both rural and urban areas. iii. To generate Farmer‟s Welfare fund scheme launches like kishan jeevan kalian yojna. iv. Women banks establishment in every district of West Bengal. v. To provide of grains to the every BPL family at ₹ 4 per Kg. vi. Kannasri Yojna which provide ₹ 25000 per month amount to the girls students at the age of 18 years. vii. Distribute cycles, bags, dress and money to the students in the school. viii. To give monthly stipend to the Masjid Maulana and Moujjan. ix. Reducing the incidents of crime and violence against women.

b. Communist Party of India (Marxist) i. To reduced price rate of foods and generating employment, development of new economic policy. ii. Implementing land reforms and women empowerment. iii. Development of new economic policy, remove the scandal of corruption and mega scams, resources mobilization and create central-state relation.

c. Indian National Congress (INC) i. To restart all important schemes which related to agriculture, irrigation, building of roads, and bridge etc. ii. Development of village infrastructure and linkage within villages through pakka roads. iii. To restart and opening new school, colleges, university and educational institution in every district of West Bengal. iv. To provide social security schemes for workers engaged in unorganized sector like weavers, khet mazdoors, beedi workers and rickshaw pullers. v. Rural development and generation of employment and reduced the unemployment problems.

d. Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) i. To achieve the target production of 5,000 megawatt of electricity and build Nuclear Power Plant. ii. To give highest priority to agriculture and 65 % of budget expenditure to be incurred on rural development. iii. Basic infrastructure for industrial development. iv. To make Youth Board State Human Rights Commission. v. Linkage of all villages through packa and new roads. vi. To generation of employment and reduced unemployment and berojgar. vii. Provide compulsory and free primary education to all. viii. Establishment of women police station and women empowerment in West Bengal.

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IX. Media and Social Media: At the age of Modern technology, media and especially social media has been played a great crucial role as the determinant factors of voting behaviour. Today people live on social media where political parties exchange their thoughts, ideas, blogging, picture sharing, wall posting and elections campaigns. The News channels like ABP Ananda, Colors Bangla, DD Bangla, 24 Ghonta, Kolkata TV, News Times, Star Ananda, Ajtak, and NDTV have played a great role as the factors of voting behaviour in the assembly elections in West Bengal. Besides News Channel, various Newspaper like Anandabazar Patrika, Bortoman, Kolom, Protidin, Times of India, The Hindu, Hindustan Times and so many acted as the major role in the determinants of voting behaviour. All the political parties have started their full edged campaigns through social media platform such as Facebook, Twitter, Linkedln, Google, Youtube, Instagram and Whatsup etc. Conclusion Politics has remained as a driving force in the life of twentieth century in India. India is the largest democracy in the world. Elections are known as a mirror by which we can see the true image of a democracy.It has been found that important socio-economic and political factors of voting bahaviour such as religion especially Muslim population, castes, party identification, personality factors, candidate orientation, local issued such as lalgarh incidents, Nandigram movement, Singur Tata Nano Controversy played a decisive and important role for the electoral victory of Trinomool Congress in the 2011 assembly elections. Therefore, such studies focus on the spatial dimension of electoral politics and helpful to make a democratic form of government.

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Campbell, A. (1951). Political party identification and attitudes toward foreign policy.Public Opinion Quarterly, 15, 601-62.

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David, G. L. (1978). Candidate orientation, vote choice, & the quality of the American electorate. Polity, 11 (2), 229-246.

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Website: https://www.anandabazar.com www.bartamanpatrika.com www.Indianexpress.com www.timesofindia.com www.thehindubusinessline.com www.thehindu.com

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