Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for the Calvert-Charles
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COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s, Maryland U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research | As of October 1, 2018 Summary Economy he economy of the Calvert- HMA since the early 2010s. The Housing Market Area Charles-Prince George’s share of existing home sales in the THMA expanded from HMA that are foreclosure and real 2012 through 2017, with nonfarm estate owned (REO) sales, however, payroll growth averaging 1.3 although down from 2010, remains percent annually. Growth stalled, more than double the national Howard however, in the course of the past proportion. During the 3-year Montgomery year, and payrolls declined by 1,800 forecast period, demand is estimated Anne Arundel jobs, or 0.4 percent, during the 12 for 6,700 new sales housing units in Arlington D.C. months ending September 2018. the HMA, a portion of which will Fairfax Losses in the mining, logging, and be met by the 1,575 homes currently Alexandria Prince George's Virginia construction and the trade sectors under construction. were primary factors in the overall Maryland Calvert Cheasapake Bay Charles decline. During the next 3 years, Rental Market nonfarm payrolls are anticipated Rental market conditions in the St. Mary's to increase by an average of 3,500 King George HMA are balanced. The overall jobs, or 0.8 percent, annually. rental vacancy rate is estimated at The Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s Sales Market 5.7 percent, down from 7.6 percent Housing Market Area (HMA) includes in 2010. The apartment vacancy Calvert, Charles, and Prince George’s The sales housing market in the rate in the HMA was 4.2 percent Counties in Maryland. The HMA is HMA is balanced. The sales during the third quarter of 2018, northeast and southeast of the District vacancy rate is estimated at 1.4 down from 4.8 percent a year earlier of Columbia and encompasses the percent, down from 2.5 percent (RealPage, Inc.). During the 3-year easternmost portion of the greater in 2010. The supply of existing forecast period, demand is estimated Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, homes available for sale was for 3,150 new rental housing units DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan 2.6 months in September 2018, in the HMA (Table 1). The 1,925 Statistical Area (MSA). The HMA relatively unchanged from a year apartment units currently under is home to Joint Base Andrews, with ago (Bright MLS, Inc.). Sales and construction plus 320 units in final 17,500 military and civilian personnel sales prices for new and existing planning will satisfy more than 70 and an estimated annual economic homes have mostly increased in the percent of the forecast demand. impact of $2.3 billion. Table 1. Housing Demand in the Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s HMA During the Forecast Period Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s HMA Market Details Sales Units Rental Units Total Demand 6,700 3,150 Under Construction 1,575 1,925 Economic Conditions ........................2 Population and Households ...........6 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at Housing Market Trends ....................8 the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of October 1, 2018. The forecast period is October 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021. Data Profile ........................................13 Source: Estimates by the analyst 2 Economic Conditions Economic conditions in the September 2018. The completion Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s of construction activity at major HMA strengthened for several energy-related projects in early years after the national recession 2018 and a strong decline in but weakened slightly during the multifamily construction activity past year. The unemployment during the past year contributed rate declined each year from to the decline in the sector. The 2011 through 2017, and nonfarm construction of new natural gas payrolls increased an average of liquefaction facilities at Dominion 5,100 jobs, or 1.3 percent, annually Energy Cove Point in Calvert from 2012 through 2017. During County, an investment of more the 12 months ending September than $3 billion, was estimated to 2018, nonfarm payrolls in the have supported 4,000 jobs in the HMA declined, however, by 1,800 mining, logging, and construction jobs, or 0.4 percent, with 7 of 11 sector between the start of sectors reporting job losses or no construction in October 2014 change (Table 2). The decline and completion in April 2018. followed a very strong gain of In Prince George’s County, the 9,300 jobs, or 2.3 percent, during construction of the $825 million the previous 12 months. Job PSEG Keys Energy Center, a declines in the mining, logging, natural gas-fired power plant, was and construction and the wholesale estimated to have supported 900 and retail trade sectors accounted jobs in the sector between the start for most of the job losses in the of construction in November 2015 HMA during the past year. and completion in July 2018. The mining, logging, and The wholesale and retail trade COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE construction sector declined sector is the largest private sector • by 2,300 jobs, or 6.3 percent, in the HMA, accounting for 15 during the 12 months ending percent of total nonfarm payrolls. Payrolls in the sector declined by Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s 600, or 0.9 percent, during the 12 HMA, by Sector months ending September 2018, mostly because of a loss of 400 12 Months Ending Absolute Percent jobs, or 0.8 percent, in the retail September September Change Change trade subsector. The closure of 2017 2018 two Toys “R” Us stores in Prince Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 417,300 415,500 -1,800 -0.4 George’s County and a Safeway Goods-Producing Sectors 45,400 43,000 -2,400 -5.3 Mining, Logging, & Construction 36,400 34,100 -2,300 -6.3 grocery store in Charles County in Manufacturing 9,000 8,900 -100 -1.1 the spring of 2018 contributed to Service-Providing Sectors 371,900 372,500 600 0.2 the loss in the retail trade subsector. Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s, MD George’s, Calvert-Charles-Prince Wholesale & Retail Trade 63,600 63,000 -600 -0.9 Transportation & Utilities 14,800 15,000 200 1.4 Payrolls in the professional and Information 4,200 4,100 -100 -2.4 business services and the leisure Financial Activities 13,700 13,800 100 0.7 and hospitality sectors were Professional & Business Services 49,700 49,700 0 0.0 relatively unchanged during the Education & Health Services 43,700 44,600 900 2.1 12 months ending September Leisure & Hospitality 44,900 44,900 0 0.0 2018. By comparison, payrolls Other Services 28,000 27,900 -100 -0.4 increased in each sector during Government 109,200 109,500 300 0.3 the 12 months ending September Notes: Based on 12-month averages through September 2017 and September 2018. Numbers may not add to totals 2017, including a gain of 4,300 due to rounding. jobs, or 10.5 percent, in the Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Conditions Continued 3 leisure and hospitality sector. Payrolls increased in four sectors The opening of the $1.4 billion during the past year, led by a gain MGM National Harbor Resort of 900 jobs, or 2.1 percent, in the in December 2016 contributed education and health services to the strong job growth in sector. Recovery Centers of the sector during that period. America completed the expansion A $48 million expansion was of an addiction treatment center completed in July 2018 at MGM in Charles County in August 2018, National Harbor Resort, adding adding approximately 80 jobs additional poker tables, an off- in the sector. The transportation track betting lounge, and 250 and utilities sector increased by additional jobs. 200 jobs, or 1.4 percent. The new PSEG Keys Energy Center and Figure 1. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Calvert-Charles-Prince the facilities at Dominion Energy George’s HMA, by Sector Cove Point added a combined 100 jobs in the transportation Mining, Logging, & Construction: 8% and utilities sector during the Manufacturing: 2% past year. La-Z-Boy, a furniture Government: 26% manufacturer, provided additional Wholesale & Retail jobs in the transportation and Trade: 15% utilities sector after relocating workers at a regional distribution center in Anne Arundel County Transportation to a new center in Prince George’s & Utilities: 4% County in the fall of 2018. Other Information: 1% Services: 7% Financial Activities: 3% The government sector is the largest sector in the HMA, Leisure & accounting for 26 percent of Hospitality: 11% Professional & Business Services: 12% nonfarm payrolls (Figure 1). COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE Education & Health During the 12 months ending • Services: 11% September 2018, payrolls in the Notes: Based on 12-month averages through September 2018. Numbers may not add to 100 government sector increased by percent due to rounding. 300 jobs, or 0.3 percent. Jobs in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the state government subsector increased by 300, or 1.0 percent, whereas payrolls in the federal and local government subsectors Table 3. Major Employers in the Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s HMA were mostly unchanged. The Number of Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector University of Maryland, College Employees Park (hereafter, UM College University System of Maryland Government 20,250 Park) employed 14,400 workers Joint Base Andrews Government 17,500 during the fall semester of 2018 United States Internal Revenue Service Government 4,735 United States Census Bureau Government 4,605 (UM College Park Office of Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s, MD George’s, Calvert-Charles-Prince Naval Support Facility Indian Head Government 3,445 Institutional Research, Planning NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Government 3,000 & Assessment).