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2014 | inVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY reVieW NEW YORK LONDON 535 Madison Avenue, 19th Floor Cayzer House New York, NY 10022 30 Buckingham Gate (212) 207 1000 London, SW1E 6NN United Kingdom DENVER +44 20 7828 2828 999 Eighteenth Street, Suite 3000 Denver, CO 80202 (303) 893 2899 Berkshire Capital seCurities limited is authorised and regulated By the FinanCial ConduCt authority (registration numBer 188637). memBer, Finra / sipC www.berkcap.com About berkshire CApitAl Partners Berkshire Capital is an independent employee-owned investment bank specializing in M&A h. bruce Mcever r. bruce Cameron Caleb W. burchenal (212) 207 1001 (212) 207 1013 (303) 893 2899 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] in the financial services sector. With more completed transactions in this space than any other investment bank, we help clients find successful, long lasting partnerships. richard s. Foote robert p. Glauerdt t ed J. Gooden Founded in 1983, Berkshire Capital is headquartered in New York with partners located in (212) 207 1012 +44 20 7828 0024 (212) 207 1043 Philadelphia, Denver, London and Sydney. Our partners have been with the firm an average [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] of 12 years. We are recognized as a leading expert in the wealth management, money management, alternatives, real estate and broker/dealer industries. We believe our success bomy M. hong John h. humphrey D. scott ketner as a firm is determined by the success of our clients and the durability of the partnership we (212) 207 1825 +44 20 7828 2211 (212) 207 1042 help them to structure. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Jordan e. Mann ian Martin richard D. Miles (212) 207 1048 +61 2 9221 2271 (212) 207 1830 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] NEW YORK LONDON 535 Madison Avenue, 19th Floor Cayzer House Drew r. Murphy Mitchell s. spector Jonathan stern New York, NY 10022 30 Buckingham Gate (212) 207 1824 (212) 207 1828 (212) 207 1015 (212) 207 1000 London, SW1E 6NN [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] United Kingdom DENVER +44 20 7828 2828 999 Eighteenth Street, Suite 3000 Denver, CO 80202 (303) 893 2899 Berkshire Capital seCurities limited is authorised and regulated By the FinanCial ConduCt authority (registration numBer 188637). memBer, Finra / sipC A Dvisory DireCtors richard M. Fuscone George W. Morriss p atrick von stauffenberg (212) 207 1000 (212) 207 1000 +44 20 7828 2828 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] www.berkcap.com www.berkcap.com RUNNING OF THE BULLS declined even slightly to back off from its current policies it clearly has no intention of doing so any time soon.” (In December,in September, the when market the took stock in marketstride the reached Fed announcement record highs, bullishinvestor @stocklover Forget emerging mkts. Forget financial crisis. that it would begin the tapering process in January 2014 by Forget questionable employment data. Join USA thetrimming summer, $10 there billion were from worrying its $85 billionsigns of in a monthly gathering bond bubble. equity party! (Option 2: savings account. Not!) purchases.) Still, as the market continued its climb following #USstocksrock Reply Retweet Favorite dot-comFor all its stocks potential that and wowed the investor the investing frenzy public around during the IPO, the or those investors fortunate enough to score shares Twitter remains unprofitable, for example, much like the in Twitter’s $2.1 billion initial public offering last returned to levels last seen in 2000, with companies raising FNovember, the 73% pop in the stock on opening late 1990s before imploding in 2000. The U.S. IPO market day capped what was a banner year for equities. With the Indeed, by the second half, bulls and skeptics were debating $52 billion through early November, according to Dealogic. giving and giving in 2013, with all three major indexes was one, as it climbed throughout the year and reached generatingexception of strong a few double-digitfits and starts, returns U.S. stock and marketsadding one kept various data points to buttress their positions. Margin debt more positive year to an improbable string of annual gains since 2009. Passive Gains who’d been hiding out in money markets and bond funds 2013 U.S. MUTUAL FUND FLOWS (EQUITIES) Importantly, the pros were finally joined by retail investors $ billions negativefor four years. $83 billion In the during first three the samequarters, period equity in 2012 fund and anet sea inflows of red inink the between U.S. were 2009 $114 and billion, 2011, comparedaccording withto the ACTIVE Domestic Equity ($12.0) International Equity $109.3 fundsInvestment and equity Company exchange Institute. traded In November,funds (ETFs) Strategic of all types Insight projected that net inflows in 2013 for equity mutual Sector Equity $19.3 within the the U.S. total would at the top end $450 of billion.2012. In Money 2008, market investors funds, had PASSIVE parkedwith $2.4 $3.8 trillion trillion in assetsin money in September, market funds remained — more level than they held in equity funds. Domestic Equity $59.0 Vanguard International Equity $37.2 Total Stock Market index fund became the largest Domestic Equity ETF $132.4 mutualIn a reflection fund last of theyear change by overtaking in sentiment, one of the the biggest International Equity ETF $55.7 the Pimco Total Return bond fund. Vanguard’s broad- Sources: Morningstar, Strategic Insight (ETF data) beneficiaries of the post-financial crisis flight to safety, based U.S. equity index added $77 billion in assets in the Novemberfirst 10 months American of 2013 Association to total $288 of Individual billion, while Investors’ Total Return saw its AUM drop $38 billion to $248 billion. In the Deutsche Bank warned in July that “Investors themselves as “bullish” compared with the long-term havea record rarely $401 been billion more on levered the New than York today,” Stock adding Exchange that in averageSentiment of 39%,Survey, while 46% only of respondents 22% said they characterized were “bearish,” September. or 9 points below the long-term average. High net worth range of charts tracking margin debt and markets over margin debt was a “red flag” for markets. Employing a U.S. Trust “We should expect the amount of margin debt that these surveyinvestors of individualsjoined Main with Street more in chipping than $3 awaymillion at in their decades, the Philosophical Economics blog countered: 4-year-old wall of worry. In a comprehensive are borrowing against. Thus, we should expect the total higher priority than asset preservation — a nearly exact quantityinvestors of take margin on to debt vary in with existence the size to ofvary the with portfolios the total they investable assets, 60% said asset growth had become a capitalization of the stock market.” The stock market gains have in large part been driven by the reversal from the survey’s findings in 2012. Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policy, which has made equities virtually irresistible. “Forget fundamental citingTwo high-profile their differing Ivy viewsLeague on academics, a valuation Robert method Shiller known analysis,” wrote Financial Times and Jeremy Siegel, debated the level of exuberance by in October in reviewing the stock market. “It is all about price-earnings ratio applies a p-e ratio based on earnings liquidity. The fear of tapering is offcolumnist the table. Henny If the SenderFed overas “Cape.” a 10-year Developed period, by tracking Shiller, the correlationcyclically adjusted with INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY REVIEW | 2014 1 Through the third quarter, the European fund industry markets back to 1871. Shiller, noting a 24 Cape ratio in equity funds and another €89 billion for mixed-asset September, expressed his concern about a “rather highly had attracted €55 billion ($75 billion) in net inflows for standardspriced” market. that make But Siegel markets argued appear that richer Shiller’s than earnings they are data are flawed, distorted by recent changes in accounting funds, according to Lipper. Money markets saw net his reading of the Cape signaled the market had room thirdoutflows week of of€69 October, billion. marking In the U.S., the investors 17th consecutive parked a week in reality. Siegel, author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” said record $5 billion in European equity funds during the suggested an expansion of p-e ratios. recovery. Societe Generale analysts began banging the to run, particularly as low interest rates and inflation drumof positive for more inflows in a by report investors that month, counting advising on an economic investors economic policy is much clearer, monetary policy very Reversal of Fortune loose“to switch and positioninginto eurozone is low.” and Japanese equities, where U.S. MUTUAL FUNDS $ billions negative territory, with investors particularly concerned aboutIn Asia the and growth Latin America,prospects numerous in emerging indexes markets, were as in well as the impact of potential Federal Reserve tapering 2007 2008 OCT. 2013 Equity 6,516 3,704 7,407 those markets. But Japan’s economic stimulus efforts Hybrid 719 499 1,198 on both growth and the flow of investment dollars to quantitative easing and public spending combined with Bond 1,679 1,567 3,340 someunder economic Prime Minister reforms Shinzo — made Abe the— a nation’s mix of aggressive stock market Money Market 3,086 3,832 2,669 one of the global darlings. Through early November, the Source: Investment Company Institute For asset managers, the return of animal spirits was good Nikkei 225 index was up 38%. In Europe, markets were also delivering amid performances,news, with the withpublicly the tradedasset managers firms delivering component strong of the microscopic interest rates and a hoped-for economic growth in earnings and AUM.
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