Analytical Season Review Premier League 2016/17 E: [email protected] W: optasportspro.com @OptaPro Welcome The 2016/17 season has seen fascinating battles develop at the top Page 3-5 Team and bottom of the table and OptaPro has been supporting clubs throughout the league to find that small edge in performance. Page 3 Expected Goals for Page 4 Expected Goals against As with every club, OptaPro is committed to finding new ways of analysing the game in a way that can increase the direct impact Page 5 Sequences data can have across performance analysis and recruitment. With the development of market leading new tools, metrics and possession Page 6-8 Player models we are looking to continue to push the boundaries of what is possible in data analytics. Page 6 Player Expected Goals Page 7 Keeping Goals Prevented I hope this booklet provides an insightful review of the 2016/17 season. Page 8 Player Expected Assists Page 9 League Table and Contact Details Ben Mackriell Head of OptaPro 2 Team: Expected Goals for Back to Contents Ranked by final league position, this table showcases the quality of chances Team: Chances For teams created – both from open play and set piece situations. Team Open play Open play Open play Shots from xG from Goals from shots xG goals set pieces set pieces set pieces Alongside shots and goals, OptaPro’s expected goals metric is used here. Based on over 300,000 shots, the likelihood of each shot resulting in a goal is Chelsea 399 36.77 53 157 12.62 22 calculated using factors such as location, shot type and pattern of play. Tottenham Hotspur 489 44.23 61 162 11.23 14 Manchester City rank highest in regards to their quality of chances created Manchester City 463 54.04 52 150 9.49 11 from open play, however it’s Tottenham Hotspur who scored the most here Liverpool 505 45.6 56 137 10.69 13 (61). The north London side outperformed their xG total by over 15 goals. Arsenal 425 45.33 55 128 10.03 13 From set pieces, Chelsea scored 22 – the most in the league – and were Manchester United 461 43.57 41 119 9.29 7 followed by WBA with 20. When ranked on xG, Crystal Palace generated the Everton 364 33.82 42 127 9.35 12 best chances from set pieces, however only scored 12 from these shots. Southampton 418 34.64 29 123 11.76 7 In this analysis, fast break situations have been removed. Bournemouth 317 30.07 35 116 7.99 13 WBA Tottenham Hotspur – Open Play Goals 280 23.01 20 112 11.82 20 West Ham United 335 30.98 25 156 12.42 17 Leicester City 257 22.57 29 127 12.11 9 Stoke City 296 32.57 27 127 10.24 11 Crystal Palace 275 25.77 32 155 14.17 12 Swansea City 271 22.13 28 130 12.2 18 Burnley 232 19.36 21 145 11.41 12 Watford 288 22.76 25 117 10.13 12 Hull City 266 19.11 19 117 9.54 16 Middlesbrough 250 21.09 14 93 8.2 7 Sunderland 268 20.83 20 110 7.99 5 1st 20th 3 Team: Expected Goals against Back to Contents We now flip this and look at how teams performed defensively. Team: Chances Conceded Team Open play Open play Open play Shots from xG from Goals from From open play Manchester City again stand out in regards to restricting shots xG goals set pieces set pieces set pieces opponents to low quality chances, however they conceded over 10 more goals than expected based on these chances. Chelsea 217 18.83 24 98 8.04 7 Tottenham Hotspur 251 24.36 17 90 7.06 7 Southampton are another side of note here, only conceding an xG figure of 22.6, despite having to frequently change their defensive line-up over the Manchester City 207 15.63 28 85 6.96 8 course of the season. The Saints did however concede 17 goals from set pieces Liverpool 198 21.73 28 101 9.84 12 despite their xG total of 10.6. Arsenal 283 26.57 28 129 10.57 7 From set pieces, Manchester City are prominent alongside Tottenham Manchester United 238 18.76 17 109 8.3 7 Hotspur. Despite only conceding an xG total of 10.8, Crystal Palace Everton 292 28.12 28 149 11.88 14 conceded 21 goals. Only Hull City conceded more. Southampton 285 22.61 24 132 10.58 17 In this analysis, fast break situations have been removed. Bournemouth 386 38.24 46 141 13.23 11 WBA 393 34.23 39 117 8.77 8 Top Five: Chances Created From Set Pieces West Ham United 386 41.32 48 124 10.6 11 Leicester City 412 34.62 43 133 11.58 16 Player Chances Created From Set Pieces Stoke City 367 31.62 36 161 12.27 16 Crystal Palace Gylfi Sigurdsson 56 376 33.19 36 127 10.81 21 Swansea City Christian Eriksen 45 391 43.31 44 104 10.31 10 Burnley Dimitri Payet 40 478 35.63 34 176 13.73 12 Watford Kevin De Bruyne 38 371 33.66 43 148 10.11 17 Hull City 454 44.72 42 158 12.28 22 Mesut Özil 33 Middlesbrough 391 39 34 146 10.74 13 : 10 Chances Sunderland 483 42.09 45 180 15.02 15 1st 20th 4 Team: Sequences Back to Contents Team: Sequences Over the past year, there has been a broad shift from applying metrics revolving Direct Direct speed Team Passes per Passes per Starting Starting around single on-ball events to taking a more holistic approach by analysing speed against sequence sequence distance of distance sequences of events which constitute a period of possession. against sequence against Chelsea 1.79 1.51 3.7 3.3 63.93 65.63 Sequences are defined as passages of play which belong to one team and are ended by defensive actions, stoppages in play or a shot. We can use this framework Tottenham Hotspur 1.77 1.7 3.41 2.4 63.9 67.13 to better understand a team or player’s style and involvement. Manchester City 1.7 1.75 4.01 2.38 62.52 67.44 Liverpool 1.73 You can read more about sequences and possessions here. 1.68 3.63 2.44 61.56 67.59 Arsenal 1.89 1.54 3.89 2.79 64.16 65.9 Hover over the definitions to visualise them on the pitch below. Manchester United 1.54 1.61 3.76 2.93 62.73 66.81 • Direct Speed – This metric measures how quickly (metres/second) a team Everton 1.69 1.89 3.13 2.95 65.95 64.75 progresses the ball up-field. Southampton 1.65 1.75 3.31 2.91 63.73 65.41 • Passes per Sequence – As expected, the number of passes comprising a sequence. Bournemouth 1.6 1.65 3.18 3.12 65.74 64.2 • Starting Distance of Sequence (m) – How far from the opposition goal a side WBA 1.7 1.52 2.35 3.77 66.43 63.08 starts a sequence. A useful proxy for understanding how a team presses. West Ham United 1.68 1.83 2.85 3.25 65.75 65.05 How Sequences Work Leicester City 1.7 1.75 2.47 3.23 64.19 64.67 Stoke City 1.86 1.84 2.7 3.1 65.75 64.68 Crystal Palace 1.72 1.78 2.43 3.01 64.7 64.63 Swansea City 1.81 1.6 3.08 3.39 66.25 64.02 Burnley 1.55 1.6 2.3 3.21 65.05 64.12 Watford 1.59 1.82 2.58 2.99 65.2 64.57 Hull City 1.62 1.72 3.03 3.54 67.16 62.45 Middlesbrough 1.6 1.7 3.04 3.15 67.85 62.7 Rollover each definition Sunderland 1.74 1.79 2.46 3.52 66.69 63.85 for examples 1st 20th 5 Player: Expected Goals Back to Contents In this section xG is ranked at player level, and we Player: Expected Goals also look at a player’s xG/shot data, as we aim to Player Team Non-Penalty Non-Penalty Non-Penalty xG Shot assess who is making better decisions in front of goal. xG Goals Shots Sergio Agüero tops the league when ranking by Sergio Agüero 16.88 16 134 0.13 open play xG, and his actual goals output is close to Alexis Sánchez 15.2 22 126 0.12 this total. The centre forward also leads the league Romelu Lukaku in open play shots, where he is closely followed 14.53 24 109 0.13 by Christian Eriksen, however their xG/shot data Harry Kane 13.77 24 104 0.13 significantly differs, with Agüero on 0.13 and Eriksen Diego Costa 13.4 20 110 0.12 on 0.07. Christian Benteke 13.06 13 101 0.13 Many players in this list outscored their ‘expected’ Dele Alli 12.47 17 93 0.13 total in the 16/17 season. With players rarely Zlatan Ibrahimovic 12.03 15 112 0.11 achieving this over longer period of time, it’ll be Jamie Vardy interesting to see whether this trend continues in the 10.04 13 53 0.19 17/18 season.