Monthly Unemployment Update – November 2020 Universal Credit – Searching for Work1 • As of 8th October, 7.1% of the working age population in Tees Valley were claiming Universal Credit (UC) and searching for work, compared to 5.6% nationally. • The number of people on UC in Tees Valley has increased slightly by 58 claimants over the past month, with the rate increasing slightly from 7% to 7.1%, whilst there was no change nationally. • Compared to October last year there are an extra 13,220 claimants, with the rate rising from 3.9% in October 2019 to 7.1% in October 2020. This rise can be attributed to the effects of Covid-19 pandemic with unprecedented levels of demand for Universal Credit. DWP have stated that although future declaration volumes are highly uncertain, high volumes can be expected to continue in the short term.

Previous Year Previous Month Most recent Change Since last Area Oct-19 % Sep-20 % Oct-20 % month Since last year Darlington 2,401 3.7 3,890 6.0 3,929 6.1 39 0.1 1,528 2.4 Hartlepool 2,995 5.2 4,716 8.2 4,622 8.0 -94 -0.2 1,627 2.8 Middlesbrough 3,960 4.5 8,025 9.1 8,097 9.2 72 0.1 4,137 4.7 Redcar & Cleveland 2,609 3.2 5,114 6.3 5,111 6.3 -3 0.0 2,502 3.1 Stockton-on-Tees 3,967 3.3 7,349 6.0 7,393 6.1 44 0.1 3,426 2.8 Tees Valley 15,932 3.9 29,094 7.0 29,152 7.1 58 0.1 13,220 3.2 North East 59,264 3.6 106,259 6.4 106,252 6.4 -7 0.0 46,988 2.8 Great Britain 977,403 2.4 2,265,231 5.6 2,251,399 5.6 -13,832 0.0 1,273,996 3.2 Source: DWP Stat Xplore. Date of latest release: 10th November for provisional October 2020 data (as of 8th October). Percentages are calculated from the 2019 ONS mid-year population estimates for 16-64 year olds unless otherwise stated. • While the overall number of claims in Tees Valley rose compared to last month, claims fell slightly in Hartlepool and Redcar and Cleveland. This was offset by rises in the other three Tees Valley LA’s.

1 Searching for work includes those who are not working, or with very low earnings. Claimant is required to take action to secure work - or more / better paid work. Universal Credit has been rolled out to all new claimants in stages across Tees Valley in the following order: Hartlepool - December 2016, Darlington - June 2018, Stockton - July 2018, Middlesbrough - October 2018 and Redcar & Cleveland - November 2018. It is expected that DWP will begin moving all remaining existing benefit claimants to the Universal Credit full service between July 2019 and December 2023.

Age breakdown • 7.2% of 16-19 year olds in Tees Valley are claiming UC and searching for work compared to 4.5% nationally. This has increased by 0.2 percentage points from last month, compared to a 0.1 decline nationally. • 12.9% of 20-24 year olds are claiming compared to 9.0% nationally. This has increased by 0.2 percentage points over the last month compared to no change nationally. • 9.4% of 25-29 year olds are claiming compared to 7.4% nationally. The rates are the same as last month for both Tees Valley and nationally. • 9.3% of 30-34 year olds are claiming compared to 6.9% nationally. This has remained the same as last month for Tees Valley, compared to a 0.1 percentage point decrease nationally. • 8.4% of 35-39 year olds are claiming compared to 6% nationally. This is a decrease of 0.1 perecentage points on last month, the same change as nationally.

Age breakdown by Local Authority

• 15.4% of 20-24 year old Hartlepool residents are claiming UC and searching for work, compared to 12.9% across Tees Valley and 9% nationally. • The Tees Valley 20-24 claimant rate is 3.9 percentage points higher than the national rate with this age range showing the highest percentage of claimants across all local authorities with the exception of Middlesbrough. • The 30-34 and 35-39 age ranges in Middlesbrough have claimant rates almost twice the national average, and are also higher in each case than the other local authorities.

Percentage of age specific population claiming Universal Credit and searching for work October 2020 Redcar & Stockton-on- Darlington Hartlepool Middlesbrough Tees Valley Great Britain Age Group Cleveland Tees 16-19 6.3% 7.8% 7.9% 7.4% 6.7% 7.2% 4.5% 20-24 12.0% 15.4% 11.6% 12.7% 13.5% 12.9% 9.0% 25-29 8.5% 10.3% 11.1% 9.1% 8.2% 9.4% 7.4% 30-34 7.7% 10.7% 12.9% 8.3% 7.4% 9.3% 6.9% 35-39 6.9% 8.9% 12.1% 7.6% 6.9% 8.4% 6.0% 40-44 6.0% 8.0% 9.9% 6.4% 5.7% 7.0% 5.4% 45-49 4.8% 6.2% 7.9% 4.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.5% 50-54 3.7% 5.1% 5.9% 3.7% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0% 55-59 3.3% 4.5% 5.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.8% 3.6% 60-65 3.7% 5.1% 5.1% 3.2% 3.3% 4.0% 3.7% Next update of DWP Universal Credit statistics is due on 15th December and will be a count of those claiming as of 12th November.

Alternative ONS claimant count Designed to measure the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits (Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit and available to work) by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit began) with the broader span of people this covers.

Estimates of headline unemployment are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, which is not available at a local level or the Annual Population Survey which is unreliable at a local level due to sampling variability. • 8.3% of the working age population in Tees Valley are claiming unemployment benefits, compared to 6.7% nationally. • There are 202 extra people claiming unemployment benefits in Tees Valley compared to the previous month, with the rate remaining the same at 8.3%, compared to a rise of 0.1 percentage point nationally. • Compared to August 2019 the number of people claiming unemployment benefits has risen by 13,239 people, with the rate increasing by 3.2 percentage point from 5.1% in August 2019, compared to a rise of 3.6 nationally. This rise can be attributed to the effects of Covid-19 pandemic with unprecedented levels of demand for unemployment benefits.

Aged 16-64 Previous Year Previous month Most recent Change Area Aug-19 % Jul-20 % Aug-20 % Since last month Since last year Darlington 3,094 4.8 4,584 7.1 4,627 7.2 43 0.1 1,533 2.4 Hartlepool 3,281 5.7 5,248 9.1 5,227 9.1 -21 0.0 1,946 3.4 Middlesbrough 5,739 6.5 9,304 10.6 9,362 10.6 58 0.0 3,623 4.1 Redcar & Cleveland 3,736 4.6 6,249 7.7 6,299 7.7 50 0.0 2,563 3.1 Stockton-on-Tees 5,327 4.4 8,829 7.3 8,901 7.3 72 0.0 3,574 2.9 Tees Valley 21,177 5.1 34,214 8.3 34,416 8.3 202 0.0 13,239 3.2 Great Britain 1,246,128 3.1 2,662,170 6.6 2,716,766 6.7 54,596 0.1 1,470,638 3.6 Source: ONS. Date of latest release: 13th October for August 2020 data. Percentages are calculated from the 2019 ONS mid-year population estimates for 16-64 year olds.

• Following years of gradual decrease, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp increase in the alternative claimant count in Tees Valley, regionally and nationally.

Youth Unemployment • 10.4% of 16-24 year olds in Tees Valley are claiming unemployment benefits, compared to 7.4% nationally. • There are an extra 56 16-24 year olds claiming unemployment benefits comparted to the previous month, with the rate rising slightly from 10.3% in July 2020 to 10.4% in August 2020, compared to no change nationally. • Compared to August 2019 the number of 16-24 year old Tees Valley residents claiming unemployment benefits has risen by 2,926 people, with the rate rising from 6% to 10.4%, a rise of 4.4 percentage points, which matchs the rise seen nationally. Again this rise can be attributed to the effects of Covid-19 pandemic with unprecedented levels of demand for unemployment benefits.

Aged 16-24 Previous Year Previous month Most recent Change Area Aug-19 % Jul-20 % Aug-20 % Since last month Since last year Darlington 630 6.5 909 9.4 915 9.4 6 0.0 285 2.9 Hartlepool 687 7.4 1,116 12.0 1,117 12.0 1 0.0 430 4.6 Middlesbrough 1,027 5.8 1,828 10.3 1,815 10.2 -13 -0.1 788 4.4 Redcar & Cleveland 692 5.5 1,245 9.8 1,295 10.2 50 0.4 603 4.7 Stockton-on-Tees 1,047 5.8 1,855 10.2 1,867 10.3 12 0.1 820 4.5 Tees Valley 4,083 6.0 6,953 10.3 7,009 10.4 56 0.1 2,926 4.4 Great Britain 203,472 3.0 506,129 7.4 506,902 7.4 773 0.0 303,430 4.4 Source: ONS. Percentages are calculated from the 2019 ONS mid-year population estimates for 16-24 year olds.

• Following years of broadly unchanged rates, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp increase in the youth alternative claimant count in Tees Valley, regionally and nationally. • All Tees Valley local authorities have followed broadly similar claimant count trajectories over the past five years. However, within that, Hartlepool remains an outlier with youth unemployment rates well above the other four Tees Valley districts.

The next update of ONS Alternative Claimant Count is due on 12th January 2021.

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS)

The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) was announced by the Government on 20th March 2020 in order to support employers who have been unable to undertake their normal activities through the COVID- 19 period. Under CJRS, employers are able to claim support from the period starting 1st March 2020, where employees have already been furloughed from that date. The scheme currently provides employers with financial support up to 80% of salary, up to a maximum of £2,500 per month per employee, plus the associated Employer National Insurance contributions and pension contributions (up to the level of the minimum automatic enrolment employer pension contribution) on that subsidised furlough pay. The initial CJRS jobs furloughed in the UK numbers are available from 23rd April, rising from a total of 3.8m on that date to 9.6m by 16th August.

The Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) provides support for self-employed individuals whose business has been adversely affected by Coronavirus (COVID-19). From 13th May 2020 eligible self- employed individuals could claim a grant worth 80% of their average monthly trading profits, paid out in a single instalment covering three months’ worth of profits, and capped at £7,500 in total. 441,000 SEISS claims were made on the 13th of May, rising to a total of 2.7m by 13th July when this first tranche of support closed. Claims for the second tranche of the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme opened on 17th August with 296,850 claims made on that day.

The latest statistics on both these schemes are available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrc-coronavirus-covid-19-statistics

Jobs furloughed and self-employment income support claims made and accepted as at 30th June and 31st July, UK and Tees Valley local authorities Employments furloughed SEISS claims made and Proportion Total jobs Increase in accepted of Tees (2018) total jobs Valley jobs impacted impacted during July At 30 Jun At 31 July At 30 Jun At 31 July Darlington 13,400 14,300 2,900 3,000 32% 54,000 1,000 Hartlepool 10,600 11,200 2,400 2,400 41% 33,000 600 Middlesbrough 15,400 16,400 3,800 3,900 30% 67,000 1,100 Redcar & Cleveland 15,300 16,300 3,500 3,500 44% 45,000 1,000 Stockton-on-Tees 23,800 25,000 4,900 5,000 33% 92,000 1,300 Tees Valley 78,500 83,300 17,500 17,800 35% 291,000 5,100 UK 9,373,900 9,601,700 2,553,000 2,604,000 34% 35,750,000 278,800 Source: HMRC Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme Official Statistics and Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) Official Statistics. These publications report the latest sub-national statistics and reflect only those SEISS claims that were both made and accepted.

• In Tees Valley during July, an additional 4,800 employments were furloughed and an additional 300 SEISS claims accepted. The monthly rate of increase in SEISS claims during July was slightly below that seen nationally (TV up 1.7% and UK up 2.0%), however the monthly rate of increase in Tees Valley jobs furloughed was more than double that seen nationally (TV up 6.1%, UK up 2.4%).

• By the end of July, 101,100 or 35% of all Tees Valley jobs had been either furloughed or supported through the SEISS, slightly above the national rate.