EGYPT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER APRIL, 2014 (3rd QUARTER) CONTENT 1. Political Overview………........... 01 2. Economic Overview……..….…..02 3. Finance..…………………………..….03 4. IT & Telecom………………………..03 5. Energy……………………………….…05 6. Petroleum.…..………………………05 7. Automotive..………………………..06 8. Real Estate.…………..……..……...06 9. Laws & Regulations………………07 Compiled by Thai Trade Center, Cairo POLITICAL OVERVIEW Egypt to hold presidential elections May 26-27 Source: CNN, April 13, 2014 Egypt's presidential elections will take place on May 26 and 27, Egyptian media reported Sunday, citing an announcement by the country's Presidential Elections Commission. Army chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced Wednesday that he would resign and declared his candidacy in the national polls. El-Sisi, 59, Egypt's defense minister, had to leave the army in order to run for president. El-Sisi deposed President Mohamed Morsy of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's first freely elected leader, last year following mass protests against the latter's rule. The officer is popular among Egyptians who supported the army's decision to remove Morsy from power a year into his term -- seeing el-Sisi as the kind of strong man needed to end the turmoil dogging Egypt since a popular uprising in 2011 ended Hosni Mubarak's three decades of one-man rule. But el-Sisi is reviled by the Islamist opposition, which sees him as the mastermind of a coup against an elected leader and the author of a fierce crackdown on dissent. Egypt has suffered bloody internal strife since Morsy was overthrown. Also on Sunday, unknown gunmen opened fire on a security personnel carrier in Egypt's Sinai region, killing one soldier and injuring three policemen, the state-run Al-Ahram newspaper reported, citing a military source. The security personnel carrier was traveling on a motorway in the North Sinai town of Sheikh Zuweid, the source told the Al-Ahram Arabic news website, without elaborating. Militants based in the Sinai peninsula near the Israeli border have stepped up attacks on soldiers and policemen since Morsy's ouster. Morsy and other Brotherhood leaders were rounded up soon after. Egypt Weekly Newsletter 1 Thai Trade Center, Cairo April, 2014 (3rd quarter) Sherif Yehya ECONOMIC OVERVIEW WORLD BANK APPROVES USD300 MILLION TO SUPPORT SMALL BUSINESSES Source: Ahram Online, April 14, 2014 The World Bank has approved a USD300 million loan to Egypt for a project targeting small businesses in more rural and underprivileged areas. The money will optimise Egypt's micro and small enterprises (MSEs), which will open the door for job creation in the private sector. The five-year project is set to reach over 130,000 MSEs, 37% of which are owned by women. “The project will reach out to remote, rural and underprivileged areas in Egypt,” said Sahar Nasr, the World Bank's lead economist and project team leader. IMF IN TALKS WITH EGYPT REGARDING USD 4.8 BILLION LOAN Source: Ahram Online, April 15, 2014 Egypt will need further international assistance to put its economy back on track despite receiving huge loans from Gulf Arab states, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said; "Egypt will need financial support which could come from its partners in the Gulf or, if the government wants that, from the IMF and from other international financial institutions," Christopher Jarvis, the International Monetary Fund's Egypt mission chief, told reporters. Despite the influx of cash, Egypt still faces "big challenges" including low growth, high unemployment and an aggravated budget deficit, Jarvis said. Jarvis renewed calls on Egypt to take the politically sensitive step of reducing fuel subsidies, saying that they were painful for the budget. "The sooner the reform is started the better. But we see it as a process that will take several years," Jarvis said, adding that the IMF stood ready to assist. Egypt to introduce smart card for subsidised bread by July Source: Egypt.com, April 15, 2014 The Egyptian Supplies Minister Khaled Hanafi said Sunday that Egypt will introduce a smart card system for subsidised bread nationwide by July, in an attempt to curb corruption and smuggling. A pilot scheme was launched in the Suez Canal city of Port Said on Sunday and will be implemented in other cities next week. "The new system will ... save the subsidies allotted for bread, which cost 22 billion Egyptian pounds ($3.15 billion) a year, from being wasted and leaked," Hanafi said in a statement. Egypt is the worlds largest importer of wheat, purchasing around 10 million tonnes a year, and provides the poor with subsidised loaves sold for the equivalent of one U.S. cent. Profiteers have exploited the system and many feed bread to livestock because it is cheaper than animal feed. The government is under severe financial pressure and spends around a quarter of its budget on subsidies of food, which also cover rice, sugar and oil, and energy. Egypt has undergone three years of economic and political turmoil since a popular uprising ousted Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Egypt Weekly Newsletter 2 Thai Trade Center, Cairo April, 2014 (3rd quarter) Sherif Yehya FINANCE INFLATION STABLE IN MARCH AT 9.8% Y-O-Y Source: Capmas, April 13, 2014 Urban consumer price inflation was stable at 9.8% Y-o-Y in March. Both food and non-food inflation showed stable annual growth levels, standing at 15.6% Y-o-Y and 5.1% Y-o-Y, respectively. The outturn came in slightly above our forecast of 9.4% Y-o- Y as we expected lower monthly increase in food price inflation. We reiterate our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is likely to hold policy rates unchanged when it meets on 24 April. Monthly inflation trends show headline inflation was up 0.6% M-o-M in March, decelerating from 1.4% in January and 1.0% in February. Food prices jumping 1.4% M-o-M driven by higher prices of meat, fruits and vegetables. March’s food price increase brings the cumulative food price inflation in 1Q2014 to 5.2% Q-o-Q, supporting our view that the CBE is likely to leave interest rates unchanged having cut them three times in the last six months. Non-food inflation inched up only 0.1% M-o-M with most non-food items in the consumer basked showing no price movements. Non-food prices rose 1.4% Q-o-Q in 1Q2014. We maintain our forecast for average inflation in 2014 at 9.4% Y-o-Y. Inflation is likely to decelerate further in the coming few months, benefiting from favorable base effects; the EGP was subject to devaluation in 1H2013. We therefore see inflation remaining in single digits for most of 2014. GCC financial and in-kind support will help avoid any inflationary shocks, related to the currency or energy, and so will stable global food prices. IT & TELECOMMUNICATION TE TO FINANCE EGP2.5 BILLION UNIFIED LICENCE PAYMENT INTERNALLY Source: Al Borsa, April 14, 2014 Telecom Egypt (TE) will use internal financing for the EGP2.5 billion payment to be made for the unified telecom licence as the company has about EGP6 billion on its balance sheet. TE is to start providing mobile services around the month of Ramadan, which should coincide with the end of June 2014. VODAFONE EGYPT LODGES APPEAL AGAINST COMPETITION AUTHORITY'S Source: Al Borsa, April 13, 2014 Vodafone Egypt (VFE) has lodged an appeal against Egyptian Competition Authority's (ECA) decision to refer VFE to the Public Prosecutor for imposing a stamp duty on its subscribers. The ECA had issued a decision in December 2013 referring the mobile operators, VFE, Mobinil and Etisalat's subsidiary Etisalat Misr for raising prices and colluding to impose a stamp duty worth EGP6.1 per subscriber. However, the companies had gained written approval from the National Telecommunication Regulatory Authority (NTRA) prior to applying the duties and will not reverse this decision, according to company sources Egypt Weekly Newsletter 3 Thai Trade Center, Cairo April, 2014 (3rd quarter) Sherif Yehya Telecom Egypt to Get Mobile License for $359 Million Source: Bloomberg, April 16, 2014 Telecom Egypt Co. will have to pay 2.5 billion Egyptian pounds ($359 million) for a unified license giving the country’s landline monopoly the right to offer services over competitors’ mobile-phone networks. At the same time, mobile operators Vodafone Egypt , Orange SA (ORA) ’s Mobinil and Emirates Telecommunications Corp.’s Etisalat Misr will be charged 100 million pounds each for a unified license giving them the right to use Telecom Egypt landlines, Telecommunications Minister Atef Helmy said at a press Conference in Cairo today. Telecom Egypt’s license will last about two years, until the state sells new 4G mobile spectrum. Under the license regulations, a state-managed company will be started to establish and rent telecommunications infrastructure and the four operators will be allowed to participate in it. Mobile operators are still studying legal and financial conditions of the license, Helmy said. The unified license will be activated before June 30. Under the rules, Telecom Egypt, which is 80 percent owned by the government, will have one year to negotiate an exit from its mobile joint venture with Vodafone Group Plc. (VOD) Telecom Egypt has a 45 percent holding in the unit. Vodafone has expressed interest in buying that holding, while Telecom Egypt has said it wouldn’t be obliged to exit the joint venture and it may buy a controlling stake when 4G spectrum is offered. Vodafone Threat On March 4, Vodafone said it would consider international arbitration if the Egyptian government approved the rule giving Telecom Egypt access to the country’s mobile networks. At the time, Etisalat Misr said it would seek negotiations and dialogue, and arbitration would be the last resort if the license were issued without fair and transparent rules.