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Wednesday, November 2, 2016 World Champions 1983, 1970, 1966 American League Champions 1983, 1979, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1966 American League East Division Champions 2014, 1997, 1983, 1979, 1974, 1973, 1971, 1970, 1969 American League Wild Card 2016, 2012, 1996 Wednesday, November 2, 2016 Columns: How would the Orioles be faring in these playoffs? The Sun 11/1 Should Orioles make early play to re-sign outfielder Michael Bourn? The Sun 11/1 Camden Yards stadium complex gets electric vehicle charging stations The Sun 11/1 Orioles in AFL: Stewart, Marin working hard in desert MLB.com 11/1 Poised for the start of free agency MASNsports.com 11/2 In first year of new deal, Chris Davis dealt with big expectations MASNsports.com 11/2 Orioles Manager Buck Showalter: It's A 'Cruel Game' PressBoxOnline.com 11/1 Five Things To Know About Orioles Prospect Cody Sedlock PressBoxOnline.com 11/1 Adam Jones Hosts Tailgating Event For The City Of Baltimore CBS Baltimore 11/1 Tap-In Question: If you sign one to a multi-year deal, would it be Trumbo or Wieters? BaltimoreBaseball.com 11/2 http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-offensive-downturn-in-postseason-may- not-have-been-kind-to-2016-orioles-20161101-story.html How would the Orioles be faring in these playoffs? By Jon Meoli / The Baltimore Sun November 1, 2016 Offense bottomed out in the playoffs this year, which might have been bad for a volatile Orioles club. In a World Series chock-full of narratives — curses, droughts and a possible comeback from a 3- 1 series deficit — a refrain said often about the 2016 Orioles is being ascribed to the Chicago Cubs. You’ll often hear as you watch the games that there’s too much swing-and-miss in the Cubs lineup, and that their all-or-nothing approach at the plate isn’t translating to October. Given how offense is well down in the postseason, it’s worth looking into the idea that the Orioles — who were between the league champion Cubs and Indians in the MLB offensive standings — would have experienced a similar regression had they advanced this far. Plenty of caveats are required to do something like this, namely the difference in competition that the Orioles would have faced compared to the Cubs and Indians and the game conditions. Either way, this will be a crude exercise. We’ll see what it yields. In a piece on The Ringer about the strikeout-heavy, incredibly long playoff games, Ben Lindbergh had a couple nuggets that could help this purpose. Namely, the strikeout rate in the playoffs has jumped from 21.1 percent in the regular season to 24.8, with the wOBA (weighted on-base average) falling from .326 to .286. There’s a useful chart here focused on time of game, but it indicates that both the jump in strikeout rate and the falling wOBA are both starker between the regular season and playoffs than years past. On the strikeout front, the Orioles fanned 21.7 percent of the time this year, right near the league average. We’ll compare them to the Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays, the former because they’ve had the same charges leveled against them as the Orioles did and the Blue Jays because they faced the teams the Orioles would have. Toronto had a 21.9 percent strikeout rate, and the Cubs 21.1 during the season. Toronto saw its playoff strikeout rate climb to 23.8 percent (79 in 332 plate appearances), while the Cubs, through Game 5, watched theirs jump to 25.3 percent. Even the Indians, who had a below-average strikeout rate of 20.2 in the regular season, have struck out 26.4 percent of the time in the playoffs. The rest of the teams saw increases of varying levels — no team struck out less often in the postseason than the regular season, but if you give the Orioles the average spike, we’re talking a team that strikes out a quarter of the time. That’s right around what the two World Series teams are doing, but the Orioles volatility could make it harder to overcome. Likewise, the Orioles’ team wOBA (which weights plate appearances by the actual value of each outcome to produce a comprehensive offensive value) was .326, right in line with the league average. So it’s fair to assume that spike in strikeouts would correspond with a drop in productivity as illustrated by their wOBA, and the results would be shaky. Consider this Cubs statistic, if you want to know what it looks like when a team almost exclusively swings for the fences in the playoffs. Including Tuesday’s monster day at the plate, the Cubs have scored five or more runs in nine of 16 games, and a combined six runs in the other seven games. Could a similar boom-or-bust output from the Orioles have carried them this far through October and into November? And is it enough for the Cubs, a team now wearing the same criticism levied at the Orioles, to win a World Series? http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-is-michael-bourn-a-fit-for-next-year-s- orioles-20161101-story.html Should Orioles make early play to re-sign outfielder Michael Bourn? By Eduardo A. Encina / The Baltimore Sun November 1, 2016 Examining whether the Orioles should bring Michael Bourn back. One of the Orioles’ immediate offseason priorities will be assessing whether they want – and have the ability – to retain any of their eight pending free agents. After leading the majors in homers, Mark Trumbo will likely receive a $17.2 million qualifying offer. The club is still weighing whether to do the same with catcher Matt Wieters, but at this point that seems unlikely. The Orioles have exclusive negotiating right with their own free agents for the first five days following the end of the World Series. Among the Orioles’ in-season additions, veteran outfielder Michael Bourn added the biggest spark in September after the team acquired him from the Arizona Diamondbacksfor minor league outfielder Jason Heinrich on Aug. 31. In 24 games with the Orioles, Bourn hit .283/.358/.435 with two homers and eight RBIs while providing corner-outfield range and speed on the base paths that the Orioles lacked. He fit into the Orioles clubhouse seamlessly and after spending time in four organizations this past season, he felt reinvigorated by being thrown into a playoff race. During the Orioles’ last regular-season series in New York, Bourn made his desire to return known. “Of course,” Bourn said when asked about whether he wanted to return. “This team has a lot of veteran leadership. They’re trying to win right now. They’re in that mode of playing to win. I’m thankful that they would have interest in me. That’s always a plus. It’s fun to be in this type of atmosphere. … It would be something that, of course, I would consider.” One of the Orioles’ top offseason priorities will be acquiring an additional left-handed hitter, preferably an outfielder and one who can help raise the team’s on-base capabilities. Given what he showed in his brief time in Baltimore, Bourn fits that mold. Still, the Orioles should be careful of evaluating a player based on one month. The last time that happened was when the club acquired veteran outfielder Alejandro De Aza late in the 2014 season. De Aza flourished in his first month with club. Going into 2015, his final year before free agency, he was given the starting left field job the following season, but struggled mightily and was traded on June 3 that year. De Aza’s numbers in September 2014 were similar to Bourn’s. He hit .293/.341/.537 with three homers and 10 RBIs in 20 games with the Orioles. But he quickly fell out of favor in 2015, after struggling in the leadoff spot. He hit just .214/.277/.359 in 30 games before he was traded to the Boston Red Sox. It’s an interesting comparison, but the Orioles wouldn’t necessarily hand a starting spot to Bourn as they did to De Aza. However, they’d definitely see him as more than a fourth outfielder because he offers an element the team didn’t have for most of 2016. Bourn, who will turn 34 on Dec. 27, isn’t going to duplicate the stolen base numbers of his youth – he led the National League in steals three straight years, from 2009-11. But if he returned to the Orioles, he’d immediately be the team’s top stolen base threat. While Bourn posted a .358 on- base percentage with the Orioles, his career mark is .329. But he did show the ability to work counts among a lineup of free swingers. Defensively, Bourn owned a defensive wins above replacement (dWAR) of minus-0.2 in a small sample size. His dWAR for the season was 0.1 after posting a 0.3 mark with Arizona. But regardless, he was a major upgrade defensively in right field over Trumbo (minus-2.1 dWAR), and Bourn’s addition allowed Trumbo to move into the designated hitter spot more regularly over the season’s final month. According to the Fielding Bible, Bourn owned an overall plus-5 plus/minus rating, which indicated how many plays a defender makes compared to the average fielder at his position, although he graded better in center field than either corner outfield spot. The Orioles maintain exclusive rights to their free agents until the sixth day after the World Series, so if the club doesn’t retain Bourn, it will be interesting to see his market develop.
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