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Hutchison 3(Tri) Seeking Consolidation Equity Research Hutchison 3 Company Update Thursday, 11 July 2019 Non Listed Hutchison 3(Tri) Seeking Consolidation The Vice President Director of Hutchison Indonesia (Tri) revealed that Hutch was aiming for two-digit growth in 2019 supported by sizeable capex of USD500mn. Hutch is racing to reach optimal scale by 2020-21, when relatively unhindered by debt it would be an attractive target for consolidation. The telco with a deadline to meet. Hutch 3 previously burdened by huge debt Stock Statistics of ~Rp47tn is looking to become debt-free and roll out 4G network in Java and non-Java particularly Sumatra and Sulawesi. Hutch, given its limited spectrum, Sector Telco seeks greater economies of scale with strong revenues growth by 2020-21. It will make bids for new radio spectrum either from new auctions or synergize through partnerships with peers. Key takeaway: aiming for massive growth by Indonesian standards. The key takeaway is that Hutch aims to grow its topline by 20% this year by deploying 9,000 new 4G base stations in 2019 to add to the existing 22,000 BTS at end- Major shareholders (%) FY18. Network improvements and BTS rollout will be supported by capex of Hutchison Asia Telecom 66% ~USD500mn which approximates to a 50% capex/sales ratio. After the challenging sim-reregistration process, Hutch registered ~18mn subs according Tiga Telekomunikasi 33% to Dukcapil, which has now quickly climbed back to ~40mn, with a sizeable core Estimated free float 0% generating ARPU of ~IDR40k. Hutch 3 aims to raise the EBITDA margin to 35- 38% from below the 30s in 2018. Industry talks suggest that Hutch 3 is traditionally a champion in running cost-effective operations and the Vice President Director spoke of the cost/site benefits of 4G, noting the discounts on tower leases it managed to secure recently. He also emphasized the benefits of shutting down 4,000 2G BTS, and rearranging its spectrum toward 3G/4G. Taking a more constructive view of the market. Hutch sees strong growth in the current 4G market. While Hutch and Smartfren are expected to achieve 2- digit revenues growth in 2019, Hutch is taking a more constructive view. Hutch claims to generate a Rp7,000-8,000/GB yield closer to XL, and higher than Indosat’s actual figures. Hutch also claims that it is ahead of its peers in the migration to data with +90% subscriber usage on data with 7GB/user/month. Hutch seeks consolidation. There is more clarity from the regulatory view in the case of consolidation. If the authorities deem it necessary to take back spectrum from a newly formed telco, the new telco may claim it for use after a certain time period. Uncertainty lies more in regard to the willingness of telco shareholders to relinquish their ownership-control whether partially or wholly, but Hutch is open to consider options detailing shared management and/or 50/50 ownership. Also, the new managements of Telkom and Telkomsel are key in determining the course of discussions for network sharing if not consolidation scenarios with Hutch. The Vice President Director is an ardent proponent of consolidation hinting that the company is more open to work with the top 2 and 3 largest operators in the country in an effort to maximize expected synergies amounting to USD3-4bn. He also notes, however, that a Telenor-Axiata merger could potentially empower XL in Indonesia. In our view, such a scenario unfolding in 3Q19 would entail the risk of accelerating sector developments and corporate actions before 4G has actually had time to mature in the country. Hutch is pressing the gas. Hutch’s 50% frontloading capex is a credible effort to claim 4G market share. The Opensignal results suggest Hutch is making salient Niko Margaronis network improvements that support expectations for 2-digit growth as ex-Java (62-21) 2955 5888 ext. 3512 comes into the picture. Bottom line, there is about ~Rp3tn of additional [email protected] revenues that Hutch is claiming from the market in 2019. In this regard, more 4G adoption and room for ex-Java expansion may just about cover it. www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1 Exhibit 1: Hutchison Telecom Asia – key figures % Change in Hutchison Asia Telecom Group 2017 2018 % Changes local currencies Total Hutch group revenue 7,695 8,220 6.8 13.0 Indonesia 7,049 7,314 3.8 10.0 Vietnam 352 561 59.4 59.0 Sri Lanka 294 345 17.3 26.0 EBITDA 558 1,028 84.2 106.0 Indonesia 1,185 1,636 38.1 48.0 Vietnam -478 -494 3.3 -3.0 Sri Lanka 6 36 500.0 533.0 Corporate Costs -155 -150 -3.2 3.0 EBIT 226 321 42.0 77.0 Indonesia 873 1,067 22.2 31.0 Vietnam -493 -613 24.3 -24.0 Sri Lanka 2 18 800.0 800.0 Corporate Costs -156 -151 -3.2 3.0 Active mobile subscribers 74,959 49,827 -33.5 n.a. Group EBITDA margins (implied) 7.3% 12.5% 5.3% n.a. Indonesia 16.8% 22.4% 5.6% n.a. Vietnam -135.8% -88.1% 47.7% n.a. Sri Lanka 2.0% 10.4% 8.4% n.a. Group EBIT margins 2.9% 3.9% 1.0% n.a. Indonesia 12.4% 14.6% 2.2% n.a. Vietnam -140.1% -109.3% 30.8% n.a. Sri Lanka 0.7% 5.2% 4.5% n.a. Source : Hutchison Holding Limited Exhibit 2: Hutchison Telecom Asia – growth drivers Source : Hutchison Holding Limited www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice..
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