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Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 1 East Ayrshire Council Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 1 EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT REPORT CHAPTER 8 – POPULATION AND HUMAN HEALTH SUMMARY Key Messages Population The total population of East Ayrshire according to the 2011 Census was 122,767. The general trend has been a growth in population of East Ayrshire - a growth of 2 % from the last census in 2003 By 2037 the population of East Ayrshire is projected to be 121,928 which is a decrease of 0.7% compared to the 2011 population Generally the age structure of the East Ayrshire population is similar to that of Scotland as a whole although East Ayrshire has a lower proportion of young people and higher proportion of older people compared to the rest of Scotland. Age of Population The age structure of the East Ayrshire population is typical of Scotland but levels of deprivation are higher than the Scottish average. There are marked socio-economic and environmental inequalities within East Ayrshire. Life Expectancy Life expectancy in East Ayrshire is marginally lower than the national average and reflects the socio-economic and environmental inequalities within East Ayrshire. Health Death from cancers are slightly higher in East Ayrshire with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death rates, slightly lower. The rate of cancer registrations is similar to that elsewhere in Scotland but rates of hospital admission for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and coronary heart disease are much higher than elsewhere in Scotland. There are proportionately more emergency hospital admissions than elsewhere in Scotland. The health of older people in East Ayrshire (65+years) is markedly poorer than the national average in relation to serious respiratory and cardiovascular disease East Ayrshire generally scores below the Scottish average on health behaviours as reflected in alcohol-related deaths, smoking prevalence, participation in exercise and obesity. Health in East Ayrshire is currently improving with an ongoing growth in life expectancy and reduction in cardiovascular and respiratory death rates. Levels of obesity in East Ayrshire are similar to levels across the rest of Scotland Employment and Employment Sectors Job growth in East Ayrshire was below the national average for the period between 1998 and 2008, increasing by 5% as compared to a national increase of 12%. The East Ayrshire economic growth (Gross Value Added) rate was around 0.1% between 1997 and 2007, below the national average rate of 2.3%. Socio-Economic Impacts There is some evidence to link health issues (cancer, heart disease and, obesity) and socio- economic inequalities within East Ayrshire. There is little evidence to link health with environmental inequalities and the evidence base is limited. IronsideFarrar/ Institute of Occupational Medicine July 2016 East Ayrshire Council Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 2 Overall Trends in Population and Health Health in East Ayrshire is currently improving with an ongoing growth in life expectancy and reduction in cardiovascular and respiratory death rates. Health is likely to continue to improve as a result of reduced environmental emissions and workplace exposures to dust and other hazardous substances. There is also, however, some evidence of an upward trend in adverse health behaviours that might ultimately offset the increase in life expectancy such as smoking, alcohol consumption and obesity. State and Trend OVERVIEW 1.1 Population The total population of East Ayrshire according to the 2011 Census was 122,767. This represents a growth of 2 % from the last census in 2003 (120,235). Table 1 – Summary Population Facts (Scottish Census, 2011) Population Fact East Ayrshire Scotland All people (Population) 122,767 5,295,403 Median age – Females 43 42 Median age – Males 41 40 Number of males per female - under 25 1.04 1.03 Number of males per female - 25 to 64 0.94 0.96 Number of males per female - 65 and over 0.78 0.76 The average age for women in East Ayrshire is 43 and for men is 41. There are more women than men in East Ayrshire, a trend reflected across most of Scotland. IronsideFarrar/ Institute of Occupational Medicine July 2016 East Ayrshire Council Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 3 1.2 Population Growth Projections The National Records for Scotland provided population growth projections for Scotland as a whole as well as for each local authority1. This is based on a series of assumptions for future fertility, mortality and migration. The population of Scotland as a whole is projected to rise from 5.31 million in 2012 to 5.52 million in 2022 and will continue to rise to 5.78 million in 2037 – an increase of 9% over the 25 year period. By 2037 the population of East Ayrshire is projected to be 121,928 which is a decrease of 0.6% compared to the 2012 population. Over this 25 year period the age group projected to increase the most in size is the 75+ year age group – indicating an ageing population. The numbers of young people is expected to decline during the same period by 7.1%. Table 2 – Population Projections (National Records for Scotland, 2014) % Change between Area 2012 2022 2037 2012 and 2037 SCOTLAND 5,313,600 5,519,588 5,780,371 + 9% East Ayrshire 122,720 123,578 121,928 - 0.6% 1.3 Age of Population The population of East Ayrshire has a similar age structure to Scotland as a whole, although there is local variation in the proportions of children and older people (Table 3 and Fig. 1). East Ayrshire has a lower proportion of young people and higher proportion of older people compared to the rest of Scotland. Table 3 – East Ayrshire Age Structure (Scottish Census, 2011) Age Profile East Ayrshire Scotland All people (Population) 122,767 5,295,403 % 0 to 4 years old 5.5 5.5 % 5 to 15 years old 12.1 11.8 % 16 to 29 years old 16.9 18.5 % 30 to 44 years old 19.7 20 % 45 to 59 years old 21.7 21.1 % 60 to 74 years old 16.5 15.5 % 75 years old and over 7.7 7.7 1 National Records for Scotland ‘Population Projections for Scottish Areas, 2014’ IronsideFarrar/ Institute of Occupational Medicine July 2016 East Ayrshire Council Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 4 Figure 1: Age structure of East Ayrshire population and of “intermediate geographies” from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website2. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Scotland East Ayrshire Doon Valley South Doon Valley North New Cumnock Drongan Cumnock South and Craigens Mauchline rural Cumnock North Cumnock Rural Auchinleck Mauchline Shortlees Bellfield and Kirkstyle %children Galston Kilmarnock South and Central and… %working age Earlston and Hurlford rural %pensionable age Grange, Howard and Gargieston Newmilnes Darvel Piersland Crosshouse and Gatehead Rural Bonnyton and Towncentre New Farm Loch South Altonhill South, Longpark and Hillhead Dean and New Farm Loch North Altonhill North and Onthank Southcraig and Beansburn Kilmaurs rural Northern and Irvine Valley Rural Stewarton West Stewarton East 1.4 Life Expectancy in East Ayrshire Life expectancy is slightly shorter than for Scotland as a whole but is improving in line with elsewhere in Scotland. The figure for life expectancy is based on deaths and population data over a three-year period. Table 4 – Life Expectancy at Birth (National Records for Scotland, 2014) for 2011 - 2013 Life Expectancy at Birth Gender East Ayrshire Scotland Male 75.8 76.9 Female 79.7 81.0 1.5 Socio-Economic Influences on Health In general life expectancy and health are improving across the UK and life expectancy in the Ayrshire and Arran Health Board Area has increased in line with the Scottish national average. There are a range of factors which affect health and life expectancy. East Ayrshire has an increased prevalence of smoking 2 http://www.sns.gov.uk/ IronsideFarrar/ Institute of Occupational Medicine July 2016 East Ayrshire Council Chapter 8 – Population and Human Health State of the Environment Report Page 5 East Ayrshire has a lower level of participation in sport Increasing incidences of obesity and alcohol-related deaths also suggest a relatively high prevalence of lifestyle factors that may contribute to future ill health Socio - economic circumstances are important determinants of health with male life expectancy in the most affluent areas of Scottish cities being more than 10 years greater than that in the least affluent areas. Overall, there are marked reductions in how healthy people are if they are from more deprived backgrounds. Averaged measures of socio-economic status suggest levels of deprivation within East Ayrshire are higher than the national average. Information from the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics website: In 2010, 16.7% of the population was deprived compared with a national average of 13.4% and 15% of the working age population was deprived compared with a national average of 12.3%; and In 2012, 6.1% of the working age population claimed jobseeker’s allowance versus the national average of 4.3% and in 2011 53.1% of the population were dependent on benefits versus a national average of 47.3%. 1.4 Environment/ Neighbourhood Quality The health and wellbeing of a population is in part dependent on the quality of the local environment and places in which people live. Environmental inequalities do exist in East Ayrshire including regional variation in exposure to air pollution e.g. proximity to major road infrastructure / town centres and other elements including proximity to derelict land. There are additional factors which affect how people perceive their health such as individual perception of neighbourhood quality e.g.
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