BUSINESS Laurie's Legacy Streak Continues for Manchester! Who'll Be Biggest Sellott Victims?

2 » - MANCHESTER HERALD, Fri„ Jan. 28, 1983 [M other publishes' Manchester girl’s NOW (Account BUSINESS Laurie's legacy streak continues for Manchester! Who'll be biggest sellott victims? , . page 11 . page 15 . page 3 observes Leeb, by refusing for the moment to pump up yrinners in the latest market outburst during which the The big questions in stock market land: the money supply even more. Standard & Poor’s 400-stock index (between Aug. 11 and How deep a sell-off? Has it already begun? And if it Though this action disappointed the market (in turn Jan. 5) shot up about 39 percent? Clear tonight; .Manchester, Cohn. has, what stocks are likely to get smashed the most? precipatating the recent sell-off), Leeb feels the'Fed Homebuilding led the way (up 112 percent), followed' For some answers, let's get some perspective. move will be short-lived. The economy, he points out, is Saturday, Jan. 29, 1983 by instrumentation (81 percent); metals (75 percent); ' cloudy Sunday If you look at the last six bull markets coming out of a Dan Dorfman still too weak. And until the recovery is self-sustaining, tires (71 percent); air transport (65 percent); forest recession (prior to the most recent one), you’ll un the Fed can’t afford to retighten the credit reins. Single copy 25ip products (63 percent); autos (61 percent); building — See page 2 doubtedly be surprised to learn that the explosive rally Syndicated Accordingiy, the word from Leeb (and he’s by no Hrralft we’ve just had — about 39 percent or 300 Ltow points in, materials (60 percent), and textile-apparel (58 percent). Columnist means alone) is that we’ll see the Fed, over the next six just five months — was not overly spectacular. weeks, further cut the discount rate to at least 8 percent TRANSLATING these groups into individual stocks, The average such gain since ’48 has been a much hef and maybe 7 'A percent. At present, the discount rate— Leeb has come up with a list of what he regards as the 18 tier 60 percent. And the only bull market that failed to the rate at which banks borrow from the Fed — is 8 lA most vulnerable equities — ones susceptible to 25 to 35 to'' 39 percent was the one that commenced in October percent. percent declines. 1960. On that occasion, the rally was just 36 percent. Though any further Fed cuts in the discount rate They are U.S. Home, Pulte Home, Hewlett-Packard, However, one might attribute- this below-average analysts to conclude that a healthy market correction is would likely benefit the stock market, Leeb feels strong Perkin-Elm er, Hudson Bay, Phibro, Goodyear, showing to‘an extraordinary circumstance — the shoot Reagan indeed under way, Leeb, at one time research director ly that this is a good tinie to sell specific stocks — given Budget Goodrich, AMR, UAL, Weyerhaeuser, Champion Inter out between President Kennedy and the steel industry. of Indicator Digest, a leading investment advisory ser the roughiy 15 percent market correction he sees un national, Ford, Chrysler, Jim Walter, U.S. Gypsum, In that instance.cthe market was pulverized after vice, doesn’t believe it. folding in about six weeks. Jonathan Logan and VF Corp. Kennedy forced the industry to rescind price hikes, sub "It’s a setback, pot a correction,” he says. sequently tumbling a wocked 27 percent: AND ALL T H A T BRINGS us back to the question Another 10 stocks that our man rates as extremely MIAs top It's worth noting too that the average market gain A SETB ACK, as Leeb interprets it, is a 5-7 percent posed at the outset of the column, namely: What stocks vulnerable in any decline are Fay’s Durg, Coachmen In details during the six bull markets (prior to a 10 to 15 percent decline; a correction, a 10-15 percent drop. are likely to take the worst drubbing in the event of a dustries, Vendo, American Savings & Loan, Telex, correction! lasted nearly 16 months. And the shortest Leeb figures the current,^‘‘setback” will knock the stiff self-off? ' Paine Webber, Shaklee Corp., Limited Inc., General such rally (from the October '74 bottom) was nine Dow down to no more than the 1,000 level, perhaps in the For some answers, Leeb undertook an analysis of the Nutrition and Coleco Industries. priority months. , next week or so. Following that, he sees a jump to the 13 percent market correction that followed the 50 per Leeb believes that any holders of the "vulnerable” Accordingly, one could legitimately conclude that the low 1,100s by early March. And then, Leeb expects a cent surge in stock prices between October of ’74 and stocks should immediately sell at least 50 percent of I current bull market — if you can call it that — has con true market correction that should send the Dow skid Juiy of ’75. I their positions. If they do not, he concludes, they sure By D AN IE L F. GILMORE released ding to about 950 over the foilowing eight to 12 weeks. better know something about the company that the rest siderably more mileage. Significantly, the 10 strongest groups during that WASHINGTON (UPI) - Presi Our market analyst figures that the current "set of the market doesn’t. This data — plus the bullish conclusion — comes from market surge feli nearly twice as much (about 24 per dent Reagan, in an emotional back” is strictly a function of the Federal ReserVe’s Asked to name his three favorite stocks for 1983, Leeb- Stephen Leeb, tbe savvy editor of the Investment cent) during the three-month correction between July speech to relatives of servicemen WASHINGTON (UPI) - President Rea choose Intel and Advanced Micro-Devices, two leading Strategist, a biweekly investment letter out of Jersey determination to spook the hot commodity markets, es and October of ’75. And some of the best performers still missing in Southeast Asia, gan will propose an $848 billion 1984 budget companie.s in the semiconductor field, and Medtronic City, N.J., with some 1,400 subscribers. pecially gold; in other words, to cool off some renewed were pounded for losses of 30 to 35 percent. called on Hanoi Friday to account that would cul Medicare and retirement While the recent market pasting has led a number of inflationary expectations. And the Fed’s doing this. So the obvious question: 'Who were the biggest Inc., the country’s largest producer of pacemakers. for the 2,494 Americans and end costs, freeze domestic programs, and their famiUed' anguish. I? increase defense spending for an $189 A billion deficit, sources said Friday. The president, standing before a small black POW-MIA flag pinned The budget, which will be submitted to to a curtain, said his administra Congress Monday, would reduce projected tion will give the issue "the highest federal deficits by $43 billion in fiscal 1984 Young company gets and a total of $558 billion over the next five national priority” and that broad bipartisan support exists in Con years, congressional sources said. gress to bring the situation to a If the budget were enacted, federal • - * * * i '‘m* deficits would drop from $189 billion in 1984 successful close. "Today, I want you to know that to $117 billion in 1988. they said. The first $1 your vigil is over,” Reagan told a trillion budget would occur> in 1987. 'fowl' start in business convention of the National League As Reagan outlined in his State of the of Families of American Prisoners Union address Tuesdjiy night, most domes and Missing in Southeak Asia. tic spending is frozin at current levels. Bv Bob Lowry theme, it is unique, said Rutz, The game probably could be sold “ Your government is attentive and Direct spending for cefense in 1984 would United Press International because it is the only continuous to orie of the large electronic the intelligence assets of the increase $30 billion ov?r this year’s level. AUSTIN, Texas (UPl) - Theold motion 3-D game available for the companies that sell video games, Checking United States are fully focused on Congressional budget leaders were joke about the chicken crossing the TRS-80 computer. but Watkins and Rutz said that this issue." i r briefed on Capitol Hill by Treasury road is no laughing matter to two "Halls of Time” was advertised would be only a short-term profit It out The president was openly moved Secretary Donald Regan, budget director young Texans who hope to use the for sale at $27.95 each in "80 for them and would not give their when 600 people crowded into the David Stockman end chief economic motif to spotlight their fledgling Micro," the TRS-80 owners’ company the exposure they’re auditorium of a Virginia hotel a adviser Martin Feldstein. It was their first computer software company. magazine. , seeking. Itf-minute . ride from the White look at the final budget. Morgan Watkins, 28, and Paul MOPS WASN’T exactly over Watkins, who works part time at Darlene Hawkins, House stood and applauded his Sources on Capitol Hill said the budget’s Rutz, 23, the principal stock whelmed by mail orders, but the University of Texas computer quality control tech pledge. In turn, he hailed them as largest savings would come from the holders in Mops Computer Sys Watkins said it was a learning center, and Rutz, a graduate nician for Fairchild "a room of heroes who Kept a vigil “reform” of "entitlement” guaranteed tems. Inc., an Austin company experience. student at UT in computer science, of unprecedented faith and benefit programs, such as Social Security, Burns Co.

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