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Manager Intelligence and Market Trends February 2021 Contents Quarterly Analysis Manager Intelligence and Market Trends February 2021 Contents 03 At a glance 04 Risk snapshots 06 Investor activity 08 Equity 13 Fixed income 19 Diversifying strategies 23 Private markets bfinance is an award-winning specialist consultant that provides investment implementation advice to pension funds and other institutional investors around the globe. Founded in 1999, the London-headquartered firm has conducted engagements for more than 370 clients in 38 countries and now has eight offices in seven countries. Services include manager search and selection, fee analysis, performance monitoring, risk analytics and other portfolio solutions. With customised processes tailored to each individual client, the firm seeks to empower investors with the resources and information to take key decisions. The team is drawn from portfolio management, research, consultancy and academia, combining deep sector-specific expertise with global perspective. This commentary is for institutional investors classified as Professional Clients as per FCA handbook rules COBS 3.5R. It does not constitute investment research, a financial promotion or a recommendation of any instrument, strategy or provider. Contact details Kathryn Saklatvala, Head of Investment Content, [email protected] Geraint Morgan, Director – Portfolio Monitoring, [email protected] 2 | bfinance Manager Intelligence & Market Trends Q1 2021 At a glance... As vaccine announcements lifted global The positive news of late-2020 catalysed a markets, multi-asset managers increased their major factor rotation, including a long-overdue risk-asset positioning substantially. At the end spell of outperformance for Value Equities. of Q4, average equity exposure sat more than In Global Equities, asset managers with 4% above the long-term average. this style clawed back some of their relative underperformance through the year. Low- With investors reorienting their portfolios to Volatility strategies ended the year with the adapt to pandemic disruption and the lower- weakest results in this asset class, trailing the for-even-longer rate environment, the number MSCI World Index by 14% on average. of new manager searches for bfinance clients rose by 34% versus 2019, while the volume of The upturn in sentiment left high-yield bond searches rose by 61%. managers struggling to keep pace with index returns due to their strategies’ relatively low The increase in private markets search activity (opportunistic) exposure to CCC and lower- was particularly significant – rising from rated bonds. The same dynamics, however, 41% to 51% of all new manager selection boosted relative returns for investment-grade engagements. Yet industry-wide fundraising credit strategies. statistics for private markets told a different story, with a 20% year-on-year decline in capital entering closed-end funds. PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC MARKETS TO DECEMBER 31, 2020 3M 1Y 3Y 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Performance -15% -20% -25% -30% World Global Global S&P Equity Government Corporate GSCI Bond Bond Source: bfinance/Bloomberg 3 | © February 2021 bfinance. All Rights Reserved. Risk snapshots Managers load up on risk assets amid vaccine fervour Risk appetite barometer, Manager positioning barometer, Q4 vs Q3 Q4 vs Q3 Risk Averse (Scared) Risk Seeking Bearish Bullish Q4 Q3 Source: bfinance (see page 5) 4 | bfinance Manager Intelligence & Market Trends Q1 2021 Risk snapshots continued Risk aversion Multi-asset managers moved to increase their risk- The fourth quarter of 2020 will be remembered asset positioning still further, continuing the trend of for the array of Covid-19 vaccine announcements Q2-3 when massive fiscal spending and yield-curve- that boosted market sentiment, rewarding risk-on controlling monetary policy encouraged larger equity positioning through November and early December. holdings. At the end of Q4, average equity exposure of multi-asset managers tracked by this barometer sat The shift is evident in the bfinance Risk Aversion at 39% – more than 4% above the long-term average. Index, which is driven by a range of indicators, including implied volatilities, gold prices, CDX and others. This index dropped substantially to end the quarter below 0.6 – still higher than the ten- year average. MARKET POSITIONING OF MULTI-ASSET FUNDS 45% Equity Long Run Average 43% 41% 39% 37% 35% 33% 31% Equity Exposure 29% 27% Average Multi-Asset Manager 25% Dec-11 Dec-15 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-13 Source: bfinance. This graph shows the current and average exposure to equities held by a range of multi-asset managers. This is based on proprietary analysis performed by bfinance. The managers analysed vary in strategy from macro and GTAA through to bottom-up allocation strategies. THE BFINANCE RISK AVERSION INDEX: 10-YEAR VIEW THE BFINANCE RISK AVERSION INDEX: 1 YEAR VIEW 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 version Level 0.4 version Level 0.4 A A 0.3 0.3 Risk 0.2 Risk 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Jul-20 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-20 Sep-20 Mar-20 Nov-20 Dec-19 Aug-20 Dec-20 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 May-20 Source: bfinance/Bloomberg Source: bfinance/Bloomberg The bfinance risk aversion index is a proprietary measure we use to calculate how risk seeking (nearer zero) or risk averse (nearer 1) the market consensus is. It ranges between 0 and 1. The internal algorithms used incorporate indicators of market expectations of future volatility (e.g. implied volatilities in equities and FX), the level of classic safe haven investments (gold) and market expectations of corporate default (e.g. CDX). 5 | © February 2021 bfinance. All Rights Reserved. Investor activity Asset owners reposition portfolios, driving 34% YoY rise in search activity NEW MANAGER SEARCHES, 12 MONTHS TO DECEMBER 31, 2020 (BY ASSET CLASS) % of mandates % of assets 60% 50% 51% 45% 50% 40% 35% 40% 30% 30% 25% 24% 20% 20% % of assets % of mandates 16% 15% 9% 10% 10% 5% 0% 0% Equity Fixed Income Private Markets Diversifying Strategies % of mandates, year on year comparison 60% 51% 41% 35% 41% 40% 34% 25% 25% 24% 21% 18% 16% 20% 16% 19% 16% 10% 9% 0% Equity Fixed Income Private Markets Diversifying Strategies 2017 2018 2019 2020 Note: these figures only represent projects initiated within the specified periods and do not include pre-existing client engagements that continued during the year. 6 | bfinance Manager Intelligence & Market Trends Q1 2021 Investor activity continued While 2020 brought some notable year-on-year shifts This surge was offset by a modest decline in the in the distribution of new mandates from bfinance proportion of searches targeting public markets clients (illustrated on the previous page), these and a more substantial fall the proportion seeking percentages should be viewed in the context of a diversifying strategies. significant increase in manager selection activity. The number of new searches rose by 34% versus 2019, Within these high-level asset class groupings we see while the volume of searches rose by 61% reduced appetite for strategies such as Investment and the average mandate size increased by 18%. Grade Credit, Emerging Market Equities, Real Pension funds and other investors have reoriented Estate and Multi Asset, offset by higher demand their portfolios to adapt to pandemic disruption for High-Yield Debt, Multi-Sector Fixed Income, and a lower-for-even-longer interest rate climate. China Equities, Global Equities, and Private Debt. Looking ahead we now see investors questioning The increase in private markets search activity exposure in areas such as Low Volatility Equities – was particularly significant – rising from 41% to a popular segment ahead of recent performance 51% of all new manager selection engagements. disappointment. NEW MANAGER SEARCHES (BY INVESTOR LOCATION) Equity Fixed Income Private Markets Diversifying Strategies US$194m - average mandate size 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% % of manager searches 10% 5% 0% Asia Europe Middle East North UK Pacific & Africa America Note: these figures only represent projects initiated during the 2020 calendar year and do not include pre-existing client engagements that continued during the year. 7 | © February 2021 bfinance. All Rights Reserved. Equity Value managers receive some respite while investors re-evaluate low-vol exposure NEW EQUITY MANAGER SEARCHES, YEAR ON YEAR 2019 2020 80% 71% 70% 60% 50% 40% 31% 31% 30% 25% 20% 14% 13% 10% 10% 5% 0% Global Emerging Markets Other Regional Listed Real Assets Equity (GEM, Emerging Equity (US, Europe (REITS, Listed Asia, China) Japan, Australia) Infrastructure) Note: these figures only represent projects initiated during the specified period and do not include pre-existing client engagements that continued during the year. 8 | bfinance Manager Intelligence & Market Trends Q1 2021 Equity continued Investor trends replacements or portfolio restructurings rather 2020 saw investors reevaluating and reshaping global than new money entering the asset class. equity portfolios. A decline in regional/country-specific The key exception here has been China, mandates was offset by a substantial rise in global with investors exploring allocations to A-Shares equity manager searches – this group comprised or All-Shares strategies. 71% of new equity searches handled for bfinance clients in 2020, up from 24% in 2019. Recent months have seen investors starting to question the role and relevance of low-volatility Within global equities, search activity in 2020 was strategies in portfolios, marking a considerable primarily focused on mandates offering a core or shift given the popularity of this space through defensive undertone, with the quality style proving recent years. This trend is driven by evident particularly popular. The second half of the year frustrations around 2020 performance – disappointing brought about some renewed demand for value, on the way down in Q1, and unsurprisingly weak although we observed a focus on what could be on the way up.
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