Future Growth Scenarios Workshop Brochure
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POLICY FRAMEWORK GOALS MARC has created a set of METROPOliTAN KANSAS wide-ranging policy goals for ACCESSIBILITY CIty’s LONG-RANGE Transportation Outlook 2040 — Maximize mobility and access to opportunity for all area residents TRANSPORTATION PLAN major things we want to achieve CLImate CHANGE & ENerGY Use with our transportation system. Decrease the use of fossil fuels through reduced travel demand, technology BOARD WORKSHOP advancements and a transition to renewable energy sources SEPTEMBER 2009 n They are consistent with needs local cities and counties are already planning ECONOMIC VItalITY for, and also with common themes Support an innovative, competitive 21st-century economy VISUALIZING FUTURE GROWTH SCENARIOS expressed by citizens about the Kansas City region’s transportation needs ENVIRONMENT through outreach efforts like “Imagine Protect and restore our region’s natural resources (land, water and air) through The big picture governments. They oversee MARC’s work to CHALLENGES KC,” a project to envision a sustainable proactive environmental stewardship aggregate local comprehensive plans and use WE ARE FACING The Mid-America Regional Council (MARC) future for our metro. models to forecast future development. The PLACE MAKING is working with with local, state and federal Climate change and plans tell MARC how each part of the region n These goals will serve as the Coordinate transportation and land-use planning as a means to create quality governments, transit providers, area likely regulation is expected to develop. The models estimate of greenhouse gas foundation for the plan's vision. They will places in existing and developing areas, and strengthen the quality of the region stakeholders and the public to develop a new whether that development will occur by 2040. emissions direct actions and strategies that help us long-range transportation plan for the Kansas PUBLIC HealtH meet them, as well as ways to measure City region, Transportation Outlook 2040. The What makes one place more likely to develop Fuel and energy prices Facilitate healthy, active living our progress over time. plan will identify needs and budget federal than another? Generally, places that are close Preserving natural SAFety & SecurIty funds the metro area expects to receive over to roads, served by sewers, and are near n MARC will use the policy goals to help resources Improve safety and security for all transportation users the next three decades — in ways that support growing areas with high-income households select which transportation projects a future vision for our transportation system. are more likely to develop than places that are Desire walkable, bike- should be funded in the future. It’s SYSTEM CONDITION far from services, amenities and activities. friendly communities important to make sure billions of dollars Ensure transportation system is maintained in good condition Meet the future are spent based on a cohesive vision over But it also depends on our choices. The Demographic shifts: To predict residents’ future travel needs, we older, more diverse, the next 30 years. SYSTEM PERFORMANCE policies we put in place to adapt to current must first forecast how many people and jobs smaller households Manage the system to achieve reliable and efficient performance and future challenges will shape where will be located in Greater Kansas City in 2040. people live and work for decades to come. Economic shifts: According to MARC’s economic model, the The long-term plans of many area cities and more uncertain, more region can expect to be home to 2.5 million counties are starting to head in a new, more competitive people and 1.5 million jobs in 2040, up from viable direction — one confirmed through 2 million people and 1.2 million jobs today. Public costs rise faster QUESTIONS TO NEXT STEPS community outreach efforts like “Imagine KC.” than revenue Where will the additional 500,000 people Residents desire to live in a more sustainable CONSIDER: live and work? Projecting this is the principal place and, as the vision adopted by the MARC Economy that runs on SEPTEMBER 2009 talent, attraction to role of the Technical Forecast Committee, Board states, become “America’s Green Analyze alternative diversity and density 1. Is there a consensus on growth scenarios which is composed of planners from area Region.” What might such a region look like? the overall direction of SEPTEMBER 29 the adaptive scenario? MARC Board growth scenarios workshop 2. Do we have the right WHAT DOES LAND USE TODAY BUILDOUT LAND USE corridors, nodes OCTOBER–DECEMBER residential IT MEAN? PLATTE PLATTE low-density residential Develop draft forecast and underlying commercial and Transportation Greater Kansas City is CLAY CLAY assumptions? industrial Outlook 2040 plan planning development office 3. Is 2040 a reasonable EARLY 2010 that will accommodate LEAVENWORTH LEAVENWORTH Mixed use 5.5 million people at Public/Semipublic timeframe to reach the Adopt forecast and Parks, open Spaces ultimate buildout, yet WYANDOTTE WYANDOTTE adaptive scenario? Transportation Outlook right-of-way 2040 plan the forecast predicts Vacant or Agriculture that we will grow to JACKSON JACKSON only 2.5 million people by 2040. JOHNSON JOHNSON Photos from Transportation outlook 2040 open house at MArc on June 3, 2009 Based on combined land-use CASS CASS plans from local governments. www.marc.org/forecast Mid-AMericA regionAl council 600 BroAdway, SuiTe 200, KAnSAS ciTY, Mo 64105 P: 816/474/4240 | F: 816/421-7758 | www.marc.org/2040 Mid-AMericA regionAl council | TRANSPORTATION OUTLOOK 2040 | MeTro KAnSAS ciTY’S LONG-rAnge TrAnSPORTATion PlAn VEHICLE-MilES TRAVELED WEIGHING CHOICES: Moving growth in the right direction Total daily vehicle-miles driven based on an average weekday in the region To highlight the implications of our choices, the Technical Forecast Committee has created two growth scenarios COUNTY CHANGE IN POPULATION & (minor arterial collector roads and higher) showing alternate ways of accommodating the region’s expected overall growth. The BASELINE scenario shows how EMPLOYMENT BY SCENARIO the region would look if past development trends were extended into the future. As such, it might seem the most likely forecast. But local governments have already begun to alter their plans and policies to adapt to new realities as their residents demand sustainable growth patterns. The ADAPTIVE scenario shows how the region might look if this trend in local plans is extended into the future and carried out at a regional scale. The ADAPTIVE scenario appears to be the one toward which local governments are heading. TRIP DISTANCE How can MARC best use it to develop a 2040 forecast? Per capita trip distance based on all trip types (commute, shopping, recreation, school, etc.) for an average weekday in the region The BASELINE SCENARIO shows the projected areas of population O PLATTE growth and decline between 2000 and 2040, if the region were to continue I past development practices. The results show decline at the core and CLAY widespread, scattered development in new areas. Because of this decline, new areas must absorb more than 100 percent of the region’s expected LEAVENWORTH population growth. cHArAcTeriSTicS: WYANDOTTE Land uses remain separated TRIP TRAVEL TIME SCENAR Greater reliance on automobiles for daily tasks Per capita trip travel time based on all trip -1,889– -200 JACKSON ANNUAL COST OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE 176,000 acres of rural and agricultural land converted to developed uses types (commute, shopping, recreation, school, -199–0 BY SCENARIo (2000–2040) etc.) for an average weekday in the region 0 47,000 people and 27,000 jobs leave the core of the metro NE JOHNSON 1–100 Widespread, scattered new growth requires an estimated $8.7 billion in LI 101–400 expenditures on local infrastructure during the period 401–700 701–1,000 CASS 1,001–1,500 The ADAPTIVE SCENARIO augments local plans with a “nodes and ASE 1,501–3,699 corridors” strategy. Developed over the past 18 months by the Technical B Change in population by 2040 Forecast Committee, this scenario illustrates the impact of taking to a regional scale the kinds of activity centers area governments seem to be planning. It assumes local and regional policies promote development and redevelopment ROADWAY CONGESTION of commercial areas into mixed-use centers along corridors with sufficient congested lane miles based on 5–6 p.m. PLATTE rush-hour period for an average weekday O densities and amenities to make them more walkable, bikeable, and easily in the region I CLAY served by transit. The results show less decline and greater preservation of open space — 40 percent of the region’s expected population growth is accommodated in existing areas, while 60 percent is in new areas. LEAVENWORTH cHArAcTeriSTicS: WYANDOTTE Mixed land uses and higher densities reduce auto dependency and make transit more effective SCENAR High-quality natural areas actively protected — including agricultural land -348– -200 JACKSON — principally through stream buffers, MetroGreen® VACANT LAND E -199–0 Acres of vacant land converted to developed use 0 38,000 acres of rural and agricultural land converted to developed uses between 2000 and 2040 TRANSIT RIDERSHIP JOHNSON Total daily passenger boardings based on an IV 1–100 The urban core’s loss of people and jobs is essentially eliminated and average weekday in the region and today’s T 101–400 virtually all existing areas grow, including the region’s center cities, first transit service levels 401–700 P suburbs