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Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio Quarterly Report for 2Q21

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Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio Quarterly Report for 2Q21 WEALTH SOLUTIONS GROUP Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio Quarterly report for 2Q21 The Rising Dividend Portfolio had a gross return of 4.6% PWM Equity Research in the second quarter, compared to total returns of 8.5% from the S&P 500 and 4.9% from the Morningstar U.S. Contact: 414-765-3690 [email protected] Dividend Growth Index. July 2021 Portfolio Changes Dividend Increases We made several changes to the portfolio over the most recent The following stocks held in the Baird Rising quarter as we continued to rotate toward value, at the margin. Dividend Portfolio increased their quarterly However, as the recovery continues to unfold, we are focused on dividends in April, May, and June. Of the stocks in adding value-oriented names which we believe still have the the portfolio at quarter-end, 95% raised dividends potential for durable earnings power and dividend growth over the over the previous 12 months, averaging +8%. next 2-3 years. With a continued pro-cyclical bias, we increased our Ticker Prior New Increase exposure to the Industrial sector, while marginally reducing our AAPL $0.21 $0.22 7% exposure to Healthcare and Consumer Staples, which have CAT $1.03 $1.11 8% become more meaningful Underweight exposures. CB $0.78 $0.80 3% CVX $1.29 $1.34 4% We sold a handful of companies over the course of the quarter. We JNJ $1.01 $1.06 5% parted ways with our full positions in Digital Realty Trust (DLR), MDT $0.58 $0.63 9% Fastenal (FAST), and Organon (ORGN). These trades were more PEP $1.02 $1.08 5% stock-specific than thematic, primarily reflecting our view that PG $0.79 $0.87 10% risk/reward was more favorable in other names within each QCOM $0.65 $0.68 5% particular sector. We also trimmed our positions in Apple (AAPL), TGT $0.68 $0.90 32% Home Depot (HD), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), and Target UNP $0.97 $1.07 10% (TGT) as we sought a mixture of profit taking on high multiple Dividends are not guaranteed and may be decreased or stocks and reducing exposure to stocks less levered to the eliminated. “New” refers to most recently declared quarterly dividend. See the holdings chart on page 4 for full company economic acceleration. names and current dividend yields. We added three names last quarter in 3M (MMM), United Parcel Service (UPS), and VICI Properties (VICI). We added 3M to gain exposure to a high-quality, diversified industrial franchise with a strong pricing power, several self-help initiatives, and a solid dividend yield and track record. We also added UPS in the Industrial space given the company is benefitting from the structural shift to e-commerce, as well as a company-specific transformation story in which UPS is optimizing pricing, capital investment, and spending to improve margins and drive mid-teens targeted EPS growth over the next three years. Finally, we added VICI as we sought more pro-cyclical exposure in the REIT space. With VICI’s leading portfolio of gaming-exposed properties, the company is leveraged to the return of leisure travel. Additionally, the CPI escalators included in the company’s triple-net-lease structure ensure that VICI is well protected in an inflationary environment. VICI’s acquisition pipeline also remains robust, creating numerous potential opportunities to deploy capital. Additionally, we used the proceeds from our sales to fund increases in a combination of value-oriented, cyclical stocks and high-quality franchises where we see significant runway for future earnings and dividend growth. As such, we increased our positions in Chevron (CVX), Corning (GLW), 3M (MMM), Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS), and Starbucks (SBUX). Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated See page 5 for important disclosures Page 1 of 5 Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio | 2Q21 Report Market and Portfolio Performance The S&P 500 returned 8.5% in 2Q21 as a combination of reopening strength and a fading-but-still-impactful stimulus tailwind propelled markets higher. Broad indices were given a boost by the resurgence of Growth amid downshifting anxiety over longer-term interest rates, peak GDP growth, and inflation. Equities were also spurred on by continually rising 2021 EPS estimates, which are near $200 after troughing at ~$123 just one year ago. And while inflationary pressures might be expected to hamper the rosy earnings outlook, forward margin estimates continue to rise. The Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio delivered a total return of 4.6% during Q2 vs. 8.5% for the S&P 500. Sector outperformance was a mixed bag, with rate-sensitive Real Estate (+13.1%), growth-oriented Technology (+11.6), and deep value Energy (+11.3%) leading the pack. On the flip side, only Utilities (-0.4%) were negative on the quarter. Outside of Energy strength, cyclically-oriented sectors took a breather while growthier areas outperformed. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up +15.3%, which puts it in the upper tier of 1H performances back to 1929. Energy (+45.6%) has been an outsized winner of the nascent reopening, while Financials (+25.7%) and Real Estate (+23.3%) continue to perform strongly after lagging early in the pandemic. Outside of weakness from rate-sensitive Consumer Staples (+5.0%) and Utilities (+2.4%), most sectors have performed well. And in fact, the weakness from these two sectors is key to our belief that rates ultimately head higher and drive the reflation trade forward in the near-term. The Morningstar U.S. Dividend Growth Index (or DGRO), which is composed of US equities with a history of consistently growing dividends, returned 4.9% in Q2. The Rising Dividend Portfolio returned 4.6% (gross) in the quarter. The chart and table below show the portfolio’s gross return relative to the two indices. since Annualized 12/31/2018 Performance (%) Q2 YTD 1 yr inception RDP gr os s 4.6 9.9 33.0 20.4 RDP ne t 4.3 9.3 31.7 19.2 S&P 500 total return 8.5 15.3 40.8 26.3 DGRO total return 4.9 13.6 37.1 21.1 Performance results are total returns including dividends, annualized for multiyear periods. Performance is presented gross of fees in the chart above. Net performance (shown in the table above) is intended to show the effect of a hypothetical 1% account fee. Actual fees charged may differ. Future dividends are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated by companies. The S&P 500 and the Morningstar U.S. Dividend Growth Index are unmanaged common stock indices; direct investment in indices is not available. Performance results are for the Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio Composite. We do not imply that future performance will be equally attractive or that losses are not possible using these stocks. See page 5 for further disclosures. Market Commentary and Outlook While 1Q21 was largely a story about the speed and size of the move higher in interest rates, the second quarter was much the opposite: a slow trudge downward in Treasury yields despite historically strong year-over-year inflation readings and upbeat economic prospects. Even as the narrative takes hold that GDP is expected to peak in Q2 and inflation will be largely transitory, bond yields seem stubbornly low. And while many suspect large-scale bond-buying (by the Fed, pensions, etc.) as the cause, low yields are the reality of the market today and have the spillover effect on the equity markets. All things equal, lower interest rates benefit longer-term Growth stocks, and this was neatly reflected in the Q2 performance. Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated Page 2 of 5 Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio | 2Q21 Report More curious, however, is the relative underperformance from rate-sensitive sectors like Staples and Utilities (while Financials—which see higher rates flow directly to the bottom line—have held up quite well). To our partners at Strategas, this suggests that the cycle-high in Treasury rates (~1.75% on the 10-yr) hasn’t yet occurred, and that yields will reverse and head higher again in the near future. The Fed’s newly hawkish tone might support that thesis as well. This activity continues to reinforce our focus on dividend growth over outright yield. This emphasis allows us to spend time on high quality companies across a variety of sectors, focusing on firms with stable and growing earnings, low debt, and free cash flow to cover their dividends. And further, as we transition from a multiples-driven, early-cycle expansion into an earnings-driven, mid-cycle phase of the market, we think the Quality factor will again outperform. And should rates again begin to rise alongside economic strength, yield-sensitive sectors are likely to be caught in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, the market is right at all-time highs—up 95%+ off the 2020 lows—but is narrowing out (weakening breadth) and entering a difficult seasonal stretch. We remain bullish overall, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see an uptick in volatility and relative weakness in Q3. Should this play out, we’ll use any pullbacks to add to long-term favorites and recent additions. We view minor corrections inside of structural bull markets as great buying opportunities for the portfolio. Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated Page 3 of 5 Baird Rising Dividend Portfolio | 2Q21 Report —Next Twelve Month (NTM)— Purch. Purch. 6/30/21 52 Week Market Rev. EPS EV / Div. Div. Portfolio S&P Change P/E Date Price Price High Low Cap Growth Growth EBITDA Yield Growth ($) ($) (%) ($) ($) ($bil) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) Communication Services 5.4% 11.1% CMCSA Comcast Corporation Class A 2.7% Multiple 43.41 57.02 31.4 59.11 39.03 268.4 7.8 19.0 17.3 9.7 1.7 9.3 VZ Verizon Communications Inc.
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