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Case Study of Las Palmas energies Article Towards Renewable-Dominated Power Systems Considering Long-Term Uncertainties: Case Study of Las Palmas Miguel Cañas-Carretón 1,2 , Miguel Carrión 3,* and Florin Iov 4 1 Renewable Energy Research Institute, 02071 Albacete, Spain; [email protected] 2 DIEEAC-ETSII-AB, UCLM, 02071 Albacete, Spain 3 Department of Electrical Engineering, Industrial and Aerospace Engineering School, UCLM, 45071 Toledo, Spain 4 Department of Energy Technology, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark; fi@et.aau.dk * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +34-925-268800 (ext. 5750) Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the generation, storage and transmission expansion of the isolated power system of Las Palmas (Spain) for 2050. This power system comprises two isolated systems: Lanzarote-Fuerteventura and Gran Canaria. The generating, storage and transmission capacity to be built is determined by solving a two-stage stochastic investment model taking into account different long-term uncertain parameters: investment costs of immature technologies of power production and storage, annual demand growth, number of electric vehicles, rooftop solar penetration and natural gas prices. The possibility of linking together the isolated power systems of Lanzarote-Fuerteventura and Gran Canaria for reaching a higher penetration of renewable units is also considered. The operation of the power system is simulated by considering the day-ahead energy and reserve capacity markets. The variability of the hourly available wind and solar power, and the demand level are modeled by Citation: Cañas-Carretón, M.; using a set of characteristic days to represent the target year. The performance of the resulting power Carrión, M.; Iov, F. Towards system is assessed by conducting an out-of-sample analysis using the AC model of the power system. Renewable-Dominated Power The numerical results show that a future configuration of Las Palmas power system mainly based on Systems Considering Long-Term solar and wind power units can be achieved with the support of gas units and storage. Uncertainties: Case Study of Las Palmas. Energies 2021, 14, 3317. Keywords: generation and transmission; capacity expansion; isolated systems; reserve provision; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113317 stochastic programming; storage Academic Editors: Akhtar Kalam and Teuvo Suntio 1. Introduction Received: 20 April 2021 The design of future power systems is more challenging than ever for a variety Accepted: 2 June 2021 Published: 5 June 2021 of reasons. The highly demanding decarbonization targets to achieve by the electricity sector in the forthcoming years are pushing renewable generation technologies to replace Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral conventional ones. For instance, a reduction of 80–95% of greenhouse gas emissions in with regard to jurisdictional claims in 2050 compared to the 1990 levels has been established by the European Commission published maps and institutional affil- in [1]. This ambitious benchmark will require, among other measures, that the CO2 iations. emissions of the power sector be almost null. However, considering that the availability and dispatchability of the production of most renewable power plants is much lower than those of traditional generating units, a massive incorporation of renewable plants can have sensible consequences on the day to day operation of future power systems. The possibility of increasing the energy storage capacity will be key to facilitate the integration Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. of renewable power units. In this manner, part of the exceeding energy in periods with high This article is an open access article renewable production may be used afterwards when the available renewable production distributed under the terms and be lower. To date, only hydro pumping units have proven to be technical and economically conditions of the Creative Commons feasible options to store large amounts of energy that can be transformed into electricity. Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// However, the installation of new hydro pumping units is constrained by the existence of creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ hydro resources in appropriate locations and by the huge environmental impact typical of 4.0/). this type of power plants. From the set of new energy storage technologies, electrochemical Energies 2021, 14, 3317. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113317 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Energies 2021, 14, 3317 2 of 38 batteries seem to be the most promising option. This type of energy storage is characterized by high charge and discharge efficiencies, long cycle life, modular structure and flexible power and energy characteristics. As a consequence of these characteristics, batteries can be used for load shifting, mitigation of local load fluctuations and the provision of frequency regulation [2]. Regarding the presence of renewable units, isolated systems constitute a particular case compared with the current situation of well-connected systems. Due to security reasons, the generation mix of isolated systems is primarily composed by small generators. In this manner, the unexpected failure of one generator does not jeopardize the operation of the system. These small generators are usually thermal generators fed by fossil fuels. The difference between isolated and well-connected systems can be observed if we compare the isolated power systems of the Canary Islands, in Spain, with respect to the mainland Spanish power system in 2019. Although the renewable potentials of the Canary Islands are higher than those in the Iberian Peninsula, generation units based on renewable energies in the Canary Islands only represented 7.5% of the total capacity, whereas these power sources comprised 52% of the capacity in the mainland Spanish power system. Observe that the main reason explaining the low penetration of renewable energies in isolated systems is that the operation of these systems is more vulnerable to the variability and uncertainty of renewable resources than that in well-connected systems. The objective of this paper is to design a renewable-dominated isolated power sys- tem of Las Palmas, Spain, by the year 2050. Las Palmas belongs to the Canary Islands archipelago and is one of the 50 provinces in which Spain is divided into. Figure1 rep- resents graphically the location of the Canarian Islands and Las Palmas. Las Palmas comprises 3 main islands: Gran Canaria (GC), Lanzarote (LZ) and Fuerteventura (FV). Figure1b represents in red color those islands belonging to Las Palmas and in blue color the rest of Spain. The power systems of Lanzarote and Fuerteventura are linked since 2015 by a submarine AC cable of 132 kV with a rated capacity of 120 MVA pursuing the objective of increasing the strength of the grid and improving the capacity of integration of new renewable generation [3]. (a) Location of Canary Islands with respect to mainland Spain (b) Province of Las Palmas (in red) Figure 1. Location of Canary Islands. In order to determine the most convenient power system configuration of Las Pal- mas from technical and economical points of view, a two-stage Generation, Storage and Transmission Expansion Problem (GSTEP) is formulated. The uncertainties considered in this model are the investment costs of immature generating and storage technologies, the annual demand, the number of electric vehicles, the rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) Energies 2021, 14, 3317 3 of 38 capacity penetration and natural gas prices. The operation of the resulting power system is modelled considering the energy and reserve capacity markets. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to determine the investment decisions in generating, storage and transmission capacities to be made in the next years to minimize the total cost, including investment and operation costs. To that end, different minimum renewable energy output requirements can be enforced to ensure the achievement of a renewable-dominated system. Many works have been devoted to analyze the integration of renewable energies in the Canary Islands. For instance, reference [4] analyzed the results obtained after the application of the first wind power development plan in the Canary Islands. This work concludes that the percentage of wind power capacity installed in the Canary Islands at the end of the planning horizon was smaller than that in mainland Spain, but higher than in most European countries. Reference [5] assesses the socio-economic potential of wind power in Gran Canaria and Tenerife. Reference [6] proposes a dynamic model to analyze the installation of a pumped-hydro storage system on Gran Canaria to increase the level of wind power penetration. Reference [7] determines the optimal size of a hydro pumping unit powered by wind in the island of El Hierro. The authors of [8] develop a cross-sectoral procedure considering electricity, heating, cooling, desalination, transport and gas sectors to take advantage of possible synergies to obtain a renewable-dominated system in Gran Canaria. Reference [9] proposes a procedure to achieve by 2050 a 100% renewable power supply for the entire archipelago considering power links between islands. The generation expansion problem in the isolated power system of Lanzarote-Fuertenventura has been formulated in [10,11] considering (i) the active participation of electric vehicles and (ii) reserve provision by wind power units, respectively. The potential of on-roof solar PV in the Canary Islands has been discussed in
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