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Zagreb Stock Exchange Sell Financials, Croatia 26 November 2020 Zagreb Stock Exchange Sell Maintained Price: HRK 15.1 Price target: HRK 14.3 (from HRK 14.2) Thesis unchanged, stock remains pricey Not much has changed since the investment thesis we presented in our Expected events initiation in October. We continue to argue that the current share price does not reflect the fundamentals fully and believe our SELL 4Q20 unaudited February 2021 (TBC) recommendation on the shares is justified. In this report, we change our FY20 results April 2021 (TBC) price target (PT) only marginally, to HRK 14.3/share. On a positive note, 1Q results April 2021 (TBC) however, we continue to argue that our investment thesis could receive 2Q results July 2021 (TBC) a much-needed boost in the form of an acquisition, as the balance sheet 3Q results October 2021 (TBC) remains liquid and the company is unable to pay dividends currently. We also highlight that top-line diversification could help keep revenues more Key data stable as, in our view, about half of ZSE’s revenues could be considered non-cyclical. Furthermore, through multiple projects, the exchange Market cap USD 11m Free float 100% offers trading not only in Croatia and Slovenia, but in the Balkans in 3M ADTV USD 216 general, while some of these projects aim to increase the turnover as Shares outstanding 4.6m well. We believe the good cost control of the recent past could continue Major shareholder - going forward, but do we not see any major cost cuts in the near future. Bloomberg code ZB CZ Equity Having said that, ZSE trades at premiums of 10% on both our 2021E and CRO Index 1,690.2 2022E EV/EBITDAs, respectively, which we see as rather excessive. On our PT, the stock trades more in line with its peers. Price performance An acquisition by ZSE in the region could change our current view. We 52-w range HRK 10.2-16.5 appreciate the company’s M&A strategy and believe the chances of M&A 52-w performance 4% activity remain high, due mainly to the high liquidity of its balance sheet and its Relative performance 20% inability to pay dividends. Acquiring a higher stake in the Macedonian Stock Exchange is more likely, in our view, than a new target, as the acquisition of ZSE 12M share price performance an exchange can prove to be difficult, for political reasons. Still, any acquisition would increase the scale and, if executed well, the value of ZSE. 18 16 Top-line diversification is an integral part of the thesis. ZSE has stabilised 14 its top line by diversifying into some unconventional business lines. 12 10 Commission income accounts for only one-third of total revenues. Quotation 8 maintenance, an annual fee paid by issuers on the lower-tier markets, 6 accounts for more than one-quarter. About 20-24% of the total revenue comes 4 ZB CZ Equity 2 CRO Index (rebased) from data vending and the supply of information. The other c.20% comes from 0 sources such as OTC services and income from seminars, etc. The outreach across the Balkans via SEE Link offers geographical diversification as well, in our view. Furthermore, ZSE wants to be present and active in all stages of a company’s development and has presented SEE Funderbeam, a new model of financing for start-ups. Good cost control should enhance the operational leverage. While we expect the good cost control to continue, further large cuts are unlikely, in our view. We note, however, that this creates certain operational leverage for ZSE, especially at its current scale. Even a small increase in revenues could have large implications for the bottom line and margins. This is somewhat of a valuation call. In our view, the investment thesis is positive but, from a valuation perspective, the ZSE appears to be too expensive. We do not see any major triggers in the near term but note that an acquisition could potentially change our view. Currently, the stock trades at 16.0x and 14.7x our 2021E and 2022E EV/EBITDAs, respectively, while our PT brings the multiples more into line with its peers. Risks: low liquidity, low scale; COVID-19 pandemic; and ownership limits. Potential triggers: M&A; IPOs; and dividends in the near-to-long-term. Year Sales EBIT Net Profit EPS P/E EV/EBITDA ROE (HRK m) (HRK m) (HRK m) (HRK) (x) (x) (%) 2018 23.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 n.m. 37.4 0.5% 2019 25.0 -0.4 0.9 0.2 78.7 44.5 2.3% 2020E 26.6 2.3 2.3 0.5 29.8 15.0 5.6% EQUITY 2021E 26.1 1.9 2.0 0.4 35.2 16.0 4.5% RESEARCH 2022E 26.6 2.1 2.1 0.5 32.6 14.7 4.7% Analysts: David Lojkasek; Pawel Wieprzowski, PhD Prague: +420 222 096 256 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Website: www.wood.com Contents Valuation ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 Financials .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Important disclosures ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Closing Prices as of 24 November 2020 © 2020 by WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical without written permission from WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. This report may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published without written permission from WOOD & Company Financial Services, a.s. Requests for permission to make copies of any part of this report should be mailed to: WOOD & Company Financial Services a.s. Palladium, Namesti Republiky 1079/1a, 110 00 Prague 1 – Czech Republic tel.: +420 222 096 111 fax: +420 222 096 222 http//:www.wood.cz Zagreb Stock Exchange 2 WOOD & Company Valuation To derive our fair value and PT for ZSE’s shares, we use a DCF valuation model. With the company’s size and liquidity, it is difficult to find easily-comparable peers with which to perform a peer valuation. For this reason, we use the peer group only to cross check our PT-implied multiples. The current share price offers downside of c.5.1% to our PT, supporting our SELL recommendation on the shares. Zagreb Stock Exchange: valuation summary Discounted cash flow (100%) 14.3 Current price 15.1 Potential upside -5.1% Source: WOOD Research, Bloomberg Discounted cash flow valuation In our discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we assume a risk free rate and an equity risk premium of 5.0% each, combined with a beta of 0.8x. Furthermore, we assume a long-term growth rate of 3.0% for the terminal value. Zagreb Stock Exchange: WACC calculation Risk free rate 5.0% Market risk premium 5.0% Market return 10.0% Beta 0.8 Cost of equity 9.0% Cost of debt pre-tax 6.0% Marg. tax rate 16.0% Cost of debt after tax 5.0% Weight k(e) 100.0% Weight k(d) 0.0% WACC % 9.0% Source: WOOD Research Zagreb Stock Exchange: DCF valuation 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E Adj. EBIT -0.4 2.3 1.9 2.1 3.2 3.4 Tax rate -18% -18% -18% -18% -18% NOPAT -0.4 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.6 2.8 Depreciation & amortization 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 Changes in working capital -0.5 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 CAPEX -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 Free cash flow 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.6 Growth yoy n.a. 39% 3% 30% 4% Time adjustment for the valuation date 0.1 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.1 Discount factor 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 Discounted free cash flow 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.5 Sum 11.7 Long term growth rate 3% Residual value at horizon 62.3 PV of residual value 40.2 Net debt -9.1 EV 60.9 Number of shares (m) 4.6 Fair value of ZSE’s share 13.1 Price target 14.3 Upside -5% Valuation date 24 November 2020 Fiscal year end 31 December 2020 Time adjustment 0.10 Source: WOOD Research Zagreb Stock Exchange 3 WOOD & Company Sensitivity analysis of our model To provide more colour on our PT, below, we show the sensitivity analysis of our DCF model to different levels of WACC and terminal growth rates. Sensitivity analysis of equity value per share from our DCF model Long-term growth rate 14.52 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 7.0% 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.6 8.0% 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.9 WACC 9.0% 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.2 16.3 10.0% 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.7 11.0% 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.2 15.2 Source: WOOD Research Peer valuation Zagreb Stock Exchange is trading currently at 16.0x and 14.7x our 2021E and 2022E EV/EBITDAs, both at premiums of 10% to the peer median. We do not believe that such premiums are justified, currently, and note that our PT brings the company’s multiples into line with its peers.
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