Phenological Shifts Conserve Thermal Niches in North American Birds and Reshape Expectations for Climate-Driven Range Shifts
Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts Jacob B. Socolara,1, Peter N. Epanchinb, Steven R. Beissingerc,d, and Morgan W. Tingleya aDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269; bOffice of Global Climate Change, US Agency for International Development, Washington, DC 20523; cDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720; and dMuseum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 Edited by Hugh P. Possingham, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Australia, and approved October 10, 2017 (received for review April 14, 2017) Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range another opportunity to track temperature by shifting thermally shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history constrained life-history events (e.g., nesting in birds) to colder times events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism of year (Fig. 1). This might be the case even if the main adaptive for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and significance of phenological shifts involves resource tracking. other consumers are widely understood as the principal mecha- However, species do not have unrestricted flexibility to adjust nism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, their phenology to track temperature. Phenological timing of life- phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous oppor- history events is not always behaviorally plastic or evolutionarily tunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the labile (21). Moreover, consumers face demographic consequences possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has if reproduction is not adequately timed with peaks in biotic re- been widely overlooked.
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