Show Me the Money: Option Moneyness Concentration and Future Stock Returns Kelley Bergsma Assistant Professor of Finance Ohio University Vivien Csapi Assistant Professor of Finance University of Pecs Dean Diavatopoulos* Assistant Professor of Finance Seattle University Andy Fodor Professor of Finance Ohio University Keywords: option moneyness, implied volatility, open interest, stock returns JEL Classifications: G11, G12, G13 *Communications Author Address: Albers School of Business and Economics Department of Finance 901 12th Avenue Seattle, WA 98122 Phone: 206-265-1929 Email:
[email protected] Show Me the Money: Option Moneyness Concentration and Future Stock Returns Abstract Informed traders often use options that are not in-the-money because these options offer higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Since leverage is monotonically related to option moneyness (K/S), it follows that a higher concentration of trading in options of certain moneyness levels indicates more informed trading. Using a measure of stock-level dollar volume weighted average moneyness (AveMoney), we find that stock returns increase with AveMoney, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage is a signal for future stock returns. The economic impact of AveMoney is strongest among stocks with high implied volatility, which reflects greater investor uncertainty and thus higher potential rewards for informed option traders. AveMoney also has greater predictive power as open interest increases. Our results hold at the portfolio level as well as cross-sectionally after controlling for liquidity and risk. When AveMoney is calculated with calls, a portfolio long high AveMoney stocks and short low AveMoney stocks yields a Fama-French five-factor alpha of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year using stocks with high implied volatility.