BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop

Home , Bowie Seamount, Powell Lake, Redundancy (engineering)

ca . oceannetworks

Victoria, BC February 16 & 17, 2015 Executive Summary Ocean Networks Canada hosted a workshop on February 16 & 17, 2015 to gather many of the active researchers in the BC coastal marine science community and assess the state of research in our coastal waters. With over 40 delegates representing twelve organizations and a small team of ONC staff, the workshop provided an avenue for an open and progressive discussion on the state of coastal oceanography research along the entire Pacific margin. The first day included a few plenary presentations that established the background canvas that is the North East Pacific, followed by an opportunity for each organization to present an overview of their active science programs and plans moving forward. An objective of the workshop was to initiate the development of a roadmap (or chart) of where BC marine science is and where it is and should be heading. Discussions on issues, methods, and opportunities on the second day helped to identify a variety of strategies and the beginning of a framework to coordinate and collaborate across disciplines, geographic regions, and between organizations. Some specific highlights include:  A clear directive to explore the establishment of a centralized database of metadata related to all the observations and information available to the marine science community, to facilitate efficient exploration and minimize redundancy and the potential for data loss. Such an archive should also include critical information on data collection and analysis techniques, assuming standard or documented data QA/QC procedures have been followed.  It is anticipated that established core sampling and monitoring programs in the southern regions would continue, and that additional and new programs be encouraged and established in the central and northern coasts. Major organizations, such as DFO and ONC should provide the canvas (including surveys and time series), on which the smaller research programs can layer the process oriented studies.  Several focused studies were identified for immediate collaboration, including a focused suite of experiments in Saanich Inlet, planned for 2016.  Similar events or workshops, co-sponsored by several of the key organizations and expanded to ensure inclusive participation, could be held on an annual basis to foster on-going collaboration and coordination of BC marine science. Future events might focus some of the discussion on specific issues, or towards a clear objective, such as a collaborative proposal. Ocean Networks Canada would like to thank all those who participated in this workshop and helped make it a success.

Contents

Executive Summary ...... 2 Introduction and Workshop Objectives ...... 5 Summary Outcomes and Next Steps ...... 6 Presentation Summaries ...... 8 Day 1 (March 16, 2015 AM) - Plenary ...... 8 BC Coastal Oceanography – Bill Crawford ...... 8 Marine Ecology in BC – Ian Perry ...... 8 Council of Canadian Academies – Kim Juniper ...... 8 Day 1 (March 16, 2015 PM) – Organization Summaries ...... 9 UBC Oceanography – Rich Pawlowicz ...... 9 MEOPAR (Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction, and Response) – Susan Allen ...... 9 UVic Geography – Rosaline Canessa ...... 9 Pacific Salmon Foundation – Isobel Pearsall/Eileen Jones ...... 9 Department of Fisheries and Ocean/Institute of Ocean Sciences – Sophia Johannessen ...... 10 Ocean Networks Canada’s Smart Ocean BC Initiative – Adrian Round and Maia Hoeberechts ...... 10 BC Hydrophone Network – Kathy Heise ...... 10 Hakai Institute – Brian Hunt and Margot Hessing-Lewis ...... 10 University of Victoria – Jody Klymak, Roberta Hamme, and Maycira Costa ...... 11 Coastal Ocean Research Institute (CORI, Vancouver Aquarium) – Peter Ross ... 11 ASL Environmental Sciences – Eduardo Loos ...... 11 Raincoast Conservation Foundation – Andrew Rosenberger ...... 11 Day 2 (March 12, 2015 AM) – Review and Break-out Sessions ...... 11 Review and Day-1 Summary – Richard Dewey and Discussion ...... 11 Group-1 (Biffard, Jackson, Vagle, Waterman, DeJong, Owens, Scherwath) ...... 12 Group-2: (Allen, Dower, Lowe, Ross, Hunt, Yurk, Hessing-Lewis, Pawlowicz, Sastri) ...... 13

Group-3: (Klymak, Bringue, Pearsall, Hamme, Curran, Jones, Costa, Insua) ...... 13 Day 2 (March 12, 2015 MM) – Review and Summary ...... 13 Summary and Conclusions ...... 13 Appendix A – Workshop Attendees ...... 14 Appendix B – Agenda ...... 15 Appendix C – Presentations ...... 16

Introduction and Workshop Objectives The coastal marine waters of British Columbia represent a complex geographic environment stretching from Juan de Fuca Strait in the south, around Vancouver Island to the west over the continental shelf and east through the Salish Sea, northward through Queen Charlotte Sound and Hecate Strait, west and east of Haida Gwaii to Dixon Entrance (Figure 1). The oceanography is dominated by regional forcing from the Northeast Pacific, and the hydrography of the coastal mountains, fjords, and inlets. The marine ecology is equally diverse, with many local, regional, and large-scale migratory ecosystems. Although marine research in the region has a comprehensive history and the breadth of organizations conducting and supporting marine research is impressive, there remain many gaps in our knowledge and available resources limit the community’s capacity to address many issues and cover the vast regions. A key objective of the workshop was to bring together the marine research community and to begin identifying issues and developing coordinated solutions: charting a course for BC marine research.

Figure 1. Chart of the coast of BC.

The goals of the workshop were to bring together the British Columbia marine science and research community in an effort to:  assess the present state of knowledge for the marine environment of BC,  identify gaps in our knowledge, understanding, and capacity,  share program activities and near-term organizational plans,  assess the priorities of the community to advance the scientific knowledge in the near future in specific fields or regions, and  identify existing or forthcoming resources that could be harnessed for immediate or potential collaboration. The format of the two day workshop consisted of:  Plenary introductions to provide an over-view of the BC marine environment.  Presentations by all participating organizations to summarize activities and near-term plans.  Break-out discussion groups to address a variety of key issues, including: o interdisciplinary knowledge gaps by region or process, o the identification of any “bell weather” locations which should be a focus for improved understanding and could act as indicators of regional conditions, o how and who to best coordinate research efforts with for given processes or in specific regions, and o what common resources or initiatives might assist in advancing the boarder marine science efforts in BC. The following sections include a brief summary of the outcomes and next possible steps, summaries of the information presented and highlights of the discussions that followed. Finally, the Appendices include A) the list of attendees, B) the original agenda, and finally C) the available presentations themselves.

Summary Outcomes and Next Steps  Seasonal large scale forcing is generally understood: Upwelling/down-welling seasons, tides, estuary/hydrology cycles, although nature continues to throw anomalous years (2014) at us. However, there remain both regions and fundamental questions that continue to guide active research objectives. For example: Where does all the fresh water go? Do we understand the full extent of coastal habitat utilization for all phases of the salmon (or Herring, or Orca, etc.) life cycle?  Typical trophic interactions and the need for synchronized timing of key species life-cycle/ecological events are critical: e.g. plankton blooms, icthyoplankton/juvenile health, herring/food availability, and salmon survival, all the way up to marine mammal trends and behaviour. Can we quantify 6

marine health through an integration of physical, chemical, and biological indicators?  Southern coastal regions are still the focus of many studies and monitoring programs. Less is known and there are limited observations for central and northern coastal regions. Establishing key baseline observations programs at northern sites is essential, contributions from NGOs such as Hakai will be key.  There was significant consensus around the idea of establishing a centralized, common, accessible data base of marine observation metadata. It would be a challenge to centralize the actual data, but a catalogue of the available data, details of what was obtained where and by whom, how the data has been handled, calibrated, and processes, and the formats available would be a good start. Access would remain some-what de-centralized, until the resources to centralize could be secured.  Identification of accepted “bell weather” sites (e.g. Saanich Inlet, Howe Sound, Strait of Georgia, west coast of Vancouver Island) and regions for which we have a basic (good?) understanding, such that we can recognize seasons as either “typical” or “atypical”. Are there missing “bell weather” regions, or species, such a Herring which we should study?  Continued improvements and mechanisms for collaboration and cooperation on sampling, research, and sharing data, also requires a means to share plans and metadata, in addition to links to the data. A centralized database, table, or website where each organization could post and maintain their schedule of sampling and plans would help foster coordination and collaboration. Standardize data formats and processing methods are desirable, but likely only after minimal coordination. Historic data are what they are. There is likely broad buy-in across most organizations to collaborate. Who leads/funds?  In-line with the above, a registry/site with organizations sampling plans would allow improved coordination of data collection and field efforts.  We should be asking key questions in regions where we know little, which would guide observations and research (that needs to be published), not just collect data for data’s sake, although we lack basic baseline observations to even assess where the gaps are.  Are there sufficient research funds and resources to support the research efforts of the existing capacity/community, which is already low (or at least limited)? Ensure we don’t waste or duplicate effort, either in the field or in analysis.

Presentation Summaries Day 1 (March 16, 2015 AM) - Plenary BC Coastal Oceanography – Bill Crawford  Both the outer and inner coastal regions of BC are strongly influenced by the marine conditions of the Northeast Pacific. This includes both the oceanographic (seawater) and the atmospheric (wind, precipitation) conditions.  West coast of Vancouver Island one of the most productive regions in the world.  Most coastal regions are strongly influenced by estuarine dynamics, and the interactions along the boundaries of the estuaries and Pacific Ocean.  Dominant roles are played by the North Pacific High (summer) and the Aleutian Low (winter), and inter-annual variations associated with El Nino, La Nina, the related Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Pacific Gyre Oscillation.  Relatively little is known about the middle and north coasts of BC, including the regions of Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance. These remain important areas as we know southern salmon and other iconic species migrate throughout these waters. Marine Ecology in BC – Ian Perry  Climate change adding complexity to our understanding of natural rhythms and variations at all trophic levels. Multiple stressors act at various spatial and temporal scales, and contribute to cumulative ecological health issues.  We are making some headway with understanding and predicting physical- biological interactions, but many non-linear aspects still poorly understood.  Efforts for monitoring, sampling, and the interdisciplinary management of ecosystems continues to improve, although human and social components are not well integrated, and successes are often regionally limited. Council of Canadian Academies – Kim Juniper  CCA Report: “Ocean Sciences in Canada: Meeting the Challenge, Seizing the Opportunity”  Several hundred questions boiled down to 40 prime “questions”  There remains an east coast bias to core ocean science programs, but west coast and Arctic are becoming more prominent.  Lack of coordination, organization, and leadership across Canada and in regions. Scattered effort (i.e. this workshop), but no mandate or core resources.  Ocean research fleet is too small and under-funded to consider expansion and/or enhanced programs that would make measureable difference.

 Canada still leads scientific output per capita, and has some major infrastructure (i.e. ONC), but lacks capacity or means to leverage. Day 1 (March 16, 2015 PM) – Organization Summaries UBC Oceanography – Rich Pawlowicz  UBC maintains strong physical, biological, and biogeochemical research programs.  Pawlowicz – observations and dynamics of coastal and estuarine circulations o Uses a wide range of tools and systems. o Where does all the fresh water go? Upper 30m is critical.  Francois/Maldanado – O2, NO3, Si(OH)4, marine and river born  Hallam – microbial, genetics, bio-diversity o Saanich Inlet as a bell weather biogeochemistry laboratory  Pakhomov – zooplankton monitoring, south and north coasts, and rivers  Waterman – ocean dynamics, fine- and micro-structure, Gliders.  Allen – canyon dynamics, upwelling, and slope processes MEOPAR (Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction, and Response) – Susan Allen  NSERC funded program, managed out of Dalhousie (Doug Wallace)  OPaR, but also short (annual) and long-term (climate) programs  NEMO circulation model of the Salish Sea o Need: nutrient levels, pH, pCO2 o Gaps is data to help guide model: North SoG and South Haro Strait  No operational models for: WCVI, QS, HS, DE UVic Geography – Rosaline Canessa  MEOPAR funded effort to monitor ship noise and whale interactions: using AIS and Hydrophone data  At: Bowie Seamount, Salish Sea, and North Coast Pacific Salmon Foundation – Isobel Pearsall/Eileen Jones  Salish Sea Survival Program – Coho and Chinook focus  Monitor physical, chemical, and biological conditions and relate them to salmon survival at all life stages, both bottom-up and top-down approaches. To include plankton and acoustic survey work to establish regional health indices.  Many partners, including citizen scientists and communities.  Will attempt to compile data from many sources – leading to management assessment capability, decision support tools  Developing a data management and sharing website: sogdatacentre.ca

 Skeena River salmon also under investigation, may provide interesting link between south and north coasts as climate shifts may look like N-S variations. Department of Fisheries and Ocean/Institute of Ocean Sciences – Sophia Johannessen  Wide range of sample, survey, and mooring work. All data are eventually available.  Surveys all around Vancouver Island (East and west sides), Line-P, long-term moorings, some Lighthouse data up the entire coast, and increased effort now under the World Class Tanker Safety program in the northern Hecate Strait and Douglas Channel areas.  Core understanding of entire system: physical, chemical, and biological. Also “response” for incidents such as spills. Ocean Networks Canada’s Smart Ocean BC Initiative – Adrian Round and Maia Hoeberechts  Western Economic Diversification funds for hardware, Transport Canada operating support, timeline 2014-16.  Marie safety, hazard warning, and environmental monitoring/water quality.  A number of key sites, originally picked as possible LNG expansion or other resource development hot spots: Strait of Georgia, Port Alberni, Campbell River, Hartley Bay, Kitimat, and Prince Rupert.  Core in-water and surface measurements, mostly cabled and reporting in real-time: CTD+O2, Hydrophones, weather, and either X-Band or HF radar  Required to assist with monitoring water quality, marine safety, and monitoring marine mammals and ships. BC Hydrophone Network – Kathy Heise  To monitor sound in the ocean, research marine mammals and fish, monitor shipping/anthropogenic activity and asses impacts.  Network extends throughout the BC coast, and is a broad partnership between larger organizations (DFO, ONC, VanAqua) and smaller NGOs (Orca Lab, Cetacea Lab, SIMRES, Beam Reach, WWF)  Data to be owned by provider and use/access to be provider determined, although a catalogue or database of annotations and availability would be shared/open. Hakai Institute – Brian Hunt and Margot Hessing-Lewis  Hakai founded and supported by Tula Foundation (Eric Petersen and Christina Munck).

 Primary sites are Calvert and Quadra Islands, and surrounding marine environments.  Year-long and season interdisciplinary studies from shore-line to continental shelf: habitat mapping, seascapes, species surveys, marine-terrestrial interactions, ecology.  Data are available via web upon request/membership. University of Victoria – Jody Klymak, Roberta Hamme, and Maycira Costa  Process and site specific studies across a wide range of marine issues: physical, small to large scale, biogeochemical, and bio-optical.  Varity of systems (VMP, Gliders, Moorings, Satellite, Ferry, Ship and Observatory based).  Propose a concentrated effort to study all processes related to redox in Saanich Inlet for 2016. Coastal Ocean Research Institute (CORI, Vancouver Aquarium) – Peter Ross  Launch in 2014 with a broad mandate to conduct marine research leading towards ocean health indices, marine pollution, marine mammal research, anthropogenic impacts, and ecological conservation, working towards regular reporting, stakeholder engagement, and solution oriented.  Collect and collaborate to build comprehensive and integrated information.  Strong public and education outreach aspects.  Can no longer rely on DFO to conduct all essential monitoring and assessment. We will need to collaborate and contribute to common objectives. ASL Environmental Sciences – Eduardo Loos  A solution provider across many environments and technologies, including acoustics, water quality, mapping, and remote sensing. Raincoast Conservation Foundation – Andrew Rosenberger  Broad interest in marine conservation  Conducted drifter card study in 2013 and 2014, released along axis/shipping lanes in Salish Sea using 4500 cards. Cards found throughout Salish Sea and even as north as Haida Gwaii. Day 2 (March 12, 2015 AM) – Review and Break-out Sessions Review and Day-1 Summary – Richard Dewey and Discussion  Seasonal large scale forcing mostly understood: Upwelling/down-welling seasons, tides, estuary/hydrology cycles

 Typical trophic interactions and need for synchronized timing of key species life-cycles: plankton blooms, icthyoplankton, herring, salmon, marine mammals.  Southern coast still studied, although it is well documented. Less known and limited observations for central and northern coastal regions.  Identification of “bell weather” sites and regions which we believe we understand and can recognize as either ‘typical” or “atypical”. Are there “bell weather” species, such a Herring?  Collaboration and cooperation on sampling and data sharing requires a means to share plans and metadata, then links to access data. Standardize formats and processing are desirable, but likely only after future coordination, historic data are what they are. Who leads/funds?  We should be asking key questions, which would guide research that needs to be published, not just data for data’s sake.  Are there sufficient research funds for present capacity, which is already too low?  There is a consensus that centralized data archives could help address a suite of efficiency and knowledge exchange issues. Having sites where one can found out what, where, and how data has or will be collected, and then links to either the metadata and/or data source would prevent duplication and enhance collaborations. DFO, ONC, VA, HI, and PS have data archive initiatives, so coordination among lead organizations should be an initial step. Break-out groups formed to discuss the range of issues. Some possible guideline provided (by region, theme, topic, capability), whatever drives towards an active discussion on what needs to be done and how we might move forward to achieve goals. Group-1 (Biffard, Jackson, Vagle, Waterman, DeJong, Owens, Scherwath)  May need “SWAT” teams or companies (Jasco, ASL) who could sweep in and conduct studies as needed after/during events.  Baseline monitoring and open data are essential. We need a centralized catalogue, and a common means to access/request. Are Canadian companies required to make data available? No. UNESCO?  We should agree to put out/post on web sites data summaries for a quick assessment of data and signals. Centralized, cross-linked, one-stop shopping?  Need a means to put analysis and reduced data back out to community.  Funds to support analysis and HQP, papers will follow.  There is an “integration” role for models: process and regional/forecast.

 2-year roadmap manageable, 5-year too long. Group-2: (Allen, Dower, Lowe, Ross, Hunt, Yurk, Hessing-Lewis, Pawlowicz, Sastri)  Limited capacity (where are gaps/strengths?) means we can only address key lowest-hanging fruit, either limited spatially or scope/temporally.  Identify missing bell weather sites, start some sampling/baseline.  Are there some themes (such as health of key species) which would determine sites, samples, and scope of core studies?  Central and northern coasts are new horizons for recent observations. We need to ensure high data quality and standard techniques are followed.  Larger organizations (DFO, ONC) could/should provide canvas on surveys and time series, onto which small groups can conduct process studies. Group-3: (Klymak, Bringue, Pearsall, Hamme, Curran, Jones, Costa, Insua)  There are still major gaps in data/knowledge of many key marine parameters (i.e. pH, bio-diversity, etc.), making even a preliminary assessment challenging.  Collaboration among major players needs to be congenial as there is more than enough work (but few funds) for everyone.  Need to centralize data archive (at least metadata), with available summaries, documented methods, calibration records, and means to access.  Identify platforms and vessel of opportunity to instrument to start baseline observations in remote areas. Four-dimensional nature of many processes is a sampling challenge.  Better engagement with first nations, their knowledgebase, and perspective on key issues/species. Day 2 (March 12, 2015 MM) – Review and Summary Summary and Conclusions  Centralized Data Catalogue o Primarily of Metadata o Data summaries/plots. o Documented calibration, collection, and processing methods.  Continue core baseline around Vancouver Island, establish new baselines in central and northern coastal regions (i.e. Hakai).  Should this, or a related venue/discussion be an annual event? Perhaps with more/some focus. Yes. Share the hosting. When April, after teaching? January before field season? Proposal/collaboration focus? ONC certainly have help lead and coordinate.  Who’s missing: UNBC, SFU, Royal Roads, VIU, PBS. US/Puget sound?

Appendix A – Workshop Attendees # Last First Affiliation 1 Allen Susan UBC 2 Bringue Manuel UVic 3 Burd Brenda CORI 4 Canessa Rosaline UVic 5 Carmack Eddy DFO 6 Connors Katrina PSF 7 Costa Maycira UVic 8 Crawford Bill DFO 9 Curran Terry PSF 10 DeJong Dolf VanAqua 11 Dower John UVic 12 Hamme Roberta UVic 13 Hannah Charles DFO 14 Heise Kathy VanAqua 15 Hessing‐Lewis Margot Hakai 16 Hunt Brian UBC/Hakai 17 Jackson Jennifer ASL 18 Jacob Wayne Hakai 19 Johannessen Sophia DFO 20 Jones Eileen PSF 21 Juanes Francis UVic 22 Klymak Jody UVic 23 Loos Eduardo ASL 24 Lowe Chris CRD 25 MacDuffee Misty RCF 26 Mouy Xavier Jasco 27 Pawlowicz Rich UBC 28 Pearsall Isobel PSF 29 Pena Angelica DFO 30 Perry Ian DFO 31 Rosenberger Andy RCF 32 Ross Peter CORI 33 Waterman Stephanie UBC 34 Whitney Charlotte UVic 35 Vagle Svein DFO 36 Yurk Harald Jasco

Appendix B – Agenda Agenda BC Coastal Marine Sciences Workshop: A Roadmap to 2020 February 16 & 17, 2015 Marriott Inner Harbour, Victoria, BC

Monday, February 16, 2015 – State of the Union

8:30 Coffee ‐ Register, meet, greet, and settle in 8:50 Take your seats 9:00 Welcome ‐ Dewey: Introductions, overview, and review workshop objectives 9:15 Plenary ‐ BC Coastal Oceanography – Bill Crawford 10:15 Coffee Break 10:30 Plenary ‐ BC Coastal Marine Ecology – Ian Perry 11:30 Plenary ‐ Council of Canadian Academies priority questions – Kim Juniper 11:50 Questionnaire ‐ ONC New Data Portal Questionnaire – Dwight Owens/Murray Leslie 12:00 Lunch (provided) – ONC’s Oceans 2.0 Demos Presentations – representatives provide brief high‐level overviews of programs, plans, and needs for achieving research objectives, identify gaps and regions of present and future focus 13:00 UBC – Rich Pawlowicz 13:15 MEOPAR ‐ Susan Allen 13:30 PSF – Isobel Pearsall, Katrina Connors, and Terry Curran 13:45 DFO/IOS – Sophia Johannessen 14:00 ONC – Adrian Round – ONC’s Smart Oceans BC – Plans for New Installations 14:15 BC Hydrophone Network – Kathy Heise 14:30 Hakai – Brian Hunt, Margot Hessing‐Lewis, and Wayne Jacob 15:00 Coffee Break and Data Portal Demos 15:30 UVic – Jody Klymak 15:45 CORI – Peter Ross 16:00 ASL – Jennifer Jackson 16:15 Southern Strait of Georgia: 2015 Freshet Observations Plans – Richard Dewey 16:30 Discussion and Assessment of Gaps and Priorities, adjustment of Goals and Objectives 17:00 Summary ‐ Brief summary of Day‐1 and preview agenda for Day‐2

Appendix C – Presentations

09/04/2015

Outline

Bill Crawford • West Coast temperatures compared to other coasts Fisheries & Oceans Canada Institute of • Persistent weather patterns drive regional differences Ocean Sciences Sidney, BC • Decadal ocean temperature variability: El Niño, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation explained (mostly)

• What is happening now to BC ocean temperature (warm!) Presentation at BC Coastal Marine Science • Regional winter, spring and summer ocean currents and Workshop, Victoria , BC phytoplankton variability. 16 Feb. 2015

Hosted by • Different climate and ecosystems in British Columbia. Ocean Networks Canada

Low Low

High High

Air pressure Temperature

Image shows average ocean surface temperature (°C) in (January) January 2015. Image shows average ocean surface pressure (millibars) in January, averaged over the years 1981 to 2010. White and black lines span the range of 6°C to 22°C.

This range covers less coastline on the western sides of the oceans than on the eastern sides. We can attribute this difference to Gulf Stream and Kurishio currents, as well as to prevailing winter weather systems.

Cold Low Low High High High High

Air pressure Air pressure

(January) Due to Coriolis force, winds generally blow along lines of constant air Weather systems are different in summer. August pressure (isobars). Image shows average ocean surface pressure (millibars) in Winds from the north are generally cold (blue arrows) Winds from the south are generally warm (purple) arrows) August. Gulf Stream, Kuroshio carry warm water northward (open arrows) Note climate zone separator at 100°W (purple line)

1 09/04/2015

Dec. 2009 - Jan 2010 Wet Low Dec. 2014 - Jan 2015 * Average H * * El Niño type of winter Wet * winter H High Dry Wet High wind Air pressure

Low H Dec.-Jan. average, 1981-2010 Air pressure H Normal winter Air pressure Image shows average ocean surface pressure (millibars) in August. In general, winds from the north are cool and dry. Winds from the Low Dec. 2007 - Jan 2008 south are warm and wet. Farm on the east side; summers are hot H Dec. 2008 - Jan 2009 and wet. Live on the west side; summers are temperate and dry*. H Dec. 2010 - Jan 2011 Dec. 2011 - Jan 2012 *Note purple climate separation lines. Air pressure La Niña type of winter

Eastern Pacific El Niño Central Pacific El Niño Canonical El Niño, El Niño, Non-Canonical El Niño, Modoki El Niño

SST SST

Tropical SST forces extra-tropical response in air pressure Dec. 2014 to Jan. 2015 1 to 10 Feb. 2015

Sea surface temperature anomaly (°C)

Note absence of warming on Equator.

Air pressure Air pressure

Source: Di Lorenzo et al., 2013

In the climate community the most common null hypothesis used to assess changes in physical ocean variables is an autoregressive model of order 1 (AR-1),

(Eq 1)

where the rate of change of an ocean variable, ϕ(t), is forced by white-noise variations of the atmosphere, f (t). The second term on the right-hand side represents damping of the signal associated with the natural dissipation

timescale, Ƭocean, of the selected variable. [F. & H., Cummins]

A clear example of the applicability of this model comes from the Pacific Ocean where the atmospheric variability of the Aleutian Low pressure system drives an oceanic response in the sea surface temperature variability captured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Source: Di Lorenzo, E., Ohman, M. D. 2013. "A double integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110(2): 496–2,499, http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1218022110.

“Cummins ”: Google scholar; “Di Lorenzo NPGO Pacific” Google scholar, Youtube

2 09/04/2015

The indices are plotted so that BC waters are warm when the indices PDO time series are red.

Both indices were red for almost all of 2014, so we can expect warmer ocean waters along the BC coast.

Amphitrite Point is on the SW coast of Vancouver Island. Temperature has been measured daily since 1930s. [Chandler, DFO]

Let’s see how average climate patterns impact coastal currents.

Dec. 2014 to Jan. 2015 1 to 10 Feb. 2015

Sea surface temperature anomaly (°C) Air pressure Summer Air Pressure Winter Air Pressure

• Arrows show seasonal winds. • Purple bars show boundaries of persistent downwelling and upwelling winds.

Climatology of February 1: Alaska Current: High Downwelling all year, Colours show concentration of much stronger in winter. chlorophyll in ocean surface Low sea waters, according to the scale level to the right, in units of mg m-3, 2: Transition Zone: as measured by SeaWiFS and Weak upwelling in mid- MODIS satellites, and summer, downwelling the averaged over 6 years. rest of the year, much Low stronger in winter. Chlorophyll is an indicator of phytoplankton.

3 California Current: Black lines show sea surface Upwelling in summer in height, as measured by High sea level north, downwelling in altimetry satellites (TOPEX/ winter. Upwelling all year POSEIDON, ERS, Envisat), in south. and averaged over 15 years, “Low” and “High” denote regions of highest and referenced to the Foreman and lowest sea level. Source: UBC web page: et al. (2006) average sea level. http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~consort/whatsnew/2002/regimeshifts.php Currents flow with high sea level to the right.

3 09/04/2015

Average Average February February

Surface currents are Low High simple to follow in February. High

High High

Average Average May High May

Currents off Washington Low High are flowing to the south.

High Higher chlorophyll concentration in coastal Low waters, especially near shore.

High

Low

Average Average August High High August

Southward flow all along Low Low west coast of Vancouver Island, and Washington. High Low Chlorophyll concentration is high along the BC coast, especially in Str of Low Georgia and west coast of Vancouver Island. These High latter 2 are the most Low productive of N. Amer. west coast (Ware & L Thomson, 2005)

High Low

4 09/04/2015

Sept. Sept. 2002 2002

H H

L In this image, for Sept. 2002, the chlorophyll and sea level contours are closely aligned along the coast, even though chlorophyll and sea level H represent completely different features Features off southern of the ocean, measured by different Vancouver Island also satellites. tend to align in space.

Daily images of chlorophyll reveal even smaller features. Image of salinity at 35 metres MERIS satellite fluorescence depth from for 6 June 2003 (courtesy of numerical the European Space Agency model and provided by J. Gower and S. King). Offshore black regions are clouds. Source: Foreman et al., 2008.

Note the low concentration of chlorophyll in Juan de Fuca Strait compared to high concentration in the Strait of Georgia and off SW Vancouver Is. and Wash. Currents and salinities averaged over days 46– 60 of the baseline simulation at 35 metres depth. White arrows are average observed currents at 30 m depth [Hickey et al., 1991] and 40 m depth [Freeland and McIntosh, 1989]. Source: Foreman et al. 2008.

400 Satellite view of central and 300 northern BC, with colours denoting 200 ocean surface 0 100 temperature on 23-24 July 1994.

Upper layer nitrate (left panel) Blue: about 10°C. and chlorophyll (right panel) Red: about 16°C. concentrations. Blue diamonds are observations in White: land and 2011. Magenta triangles and >16°C. shaded area denote averages and ranges from Wind from NNW 2002 to 2010 for nitrate and 2004 to 2010 for chlorophyll. [Peña, 2011] Nitrate Chlorophyll. Image source: NOAA, J. Gower, J. Wallace From Crawford et al. 2007

5 09/04/2015

Satellite view of central 1: West Coast Van. Is.: and northern BC, with Upwelling in summer, colours denoting ocean nutrient-rich outflow from Juan de Fuca Strait, very 5 surface temperature on high productivity. 26 Dec. 1996 6 5 2: Juan de Fuca and Blue: about 4°C. Johnstone Straits: Red: about 8°C. Intense tidal mixing, short 4 residence time, cold 2 White: land and >8°C. surface water in summer, weak productivity. 3 Wind from NNW ? 1 3: Strait of Georgia: 2 Weak tidal currents, strong stratification, longer residence time, Image source: NOAA, J. high productivity. Gower, J. Wallace 4: Queen Charlotte Sound: tidal mixing and some upwelling in summer. From Crawford et al. 2007 5: Hecate Strait, Dixon Entrance: variable mixing, outflow and currents. 6: West Coast Haida Gwaii: Downwelling and mesoscale eddies.

6 09/04/2015

Major themes MARINE ECOLOGY IN BC : 1. Climate change (including ocean acidification) THE SKELETON OUT OF THE CLOSET 2. Multiple stressors / cumulative impacts 3. Physics - biology linkages (and marine survival of fish) R. Ian Perry 4. Marine prediction

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 5. Monitoring, and ecosystem indicators Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, B.C. 6. ‘New’ management approaches Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, B.C. 7. Human dimensions of marine ecosystems [email protected] 8. Science Culture

Photo courtesy of J. Ford R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Major themes Projected changes in 10-year averaged maximum catch potential from 2005 to 2055 1. Climate change (including ocean acidification)

Cheung et al. 2010. Global Change Biology

R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Downscaling future projections from global climate Predicted changes in models to regional (BC) waters (a) species assemblages in 2050 relative to 2005, Sea surface due to climate warming temperature scenario (A2B): anomalies are (a) rate of species invasion monthly-averaged (b) rate of local extinction differences (2065-2078) minus The results are ensemble (1995-2008) outputs driven by three Earth (b) System Models. Warmer everywhere Cross-hatching represents areas where outputs from two Bigger differences or more models agree in the (>1.5°) in winter direction of changes.

Foreman et al. 2014. Cheung et al. 2015. PiO Atmosphere-Ocean R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

1 09/04/2015

Potential climate impacts on B.C. fisheries within 50 yrs Species Potential impact Summary of ocean acidification effects on (A) Sablefish Southern stocks reduced northern stocks may benefit wild, and (B) farmed species Pacific herring Stocks in the Strait of Georgia should remain high, but offshore groups in BC waters, stocks may decline including landed value for Pacific hake Strait of Georgia stock should remain high; offshore stock may also if not overfished. Range could extend northward to Haida Gwaii those that are fished or Pacific halibut Population abundance should remain high as a consequence of a farmed stormier North Pacific in the winter. The abundance in Canada may be reduced as fewer juveniles migrate south from Alaska Pacific ocean Increases in the frequency of strong year classes, which will perch improve abundance Pacific sardine Increase in Canada, but natural fluctuations will continue

Pacific cod Disappear from Strait of Georgia and off the west coast of Vancouver Island as bottom temperatures warm Pacific salmon Fraser River stocks decline, with sockeye, pink, and chum declining more than coho and chinook. Skeena and Nass salmon stocks north will increase due to improved ocean productivity. Haigh et al. 2015. PLoS ONE From Beamish et al. 2009 PICES Sci. Report, in Okey et al. 2014. Reviews in Fish and Fisheries R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Major themes Cumulative impact mapping of the B.C. coast

2. Multiple stressors / cumulative impacts

Ban et al. 2010. Marine Policy

Multiple stressors in the North Pacific – Strait of Georgia, Canada Cumulative area Estimated relative ) 2 vulnerability of benthic “Most common” habitats in Canada's number of stressors in any Pacific marine area to 4 km2 spatial unit climate impacts of is 20-25; temperature, Relatively few acidification, and UV spatial units radiation against the have >30 estimated cumulative stressors impacts of local (non- climate) anthropogenic stressors. 0 200 400 600 800 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Area ofthe SofGwith multiple stressors (km Cumulative area of the SofG with multiple stressors 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Data courtesy of Number of human stressors www.bcmca.org Okey et al. 2015. Ocean & Coastal Management

2 09/04/2015

Assessment of BC Ecosections vulnerable to both Multiple stressors – “Reality Check” cumulative non-climate stressors and climate change Analysis of 171 studies that manipulated 2 or more for assessing vulnerability to climate change stressors found interactions were: • Additive (26%) • Synergistic (36%) • Antagonistic (38%)

Crain et al. 2008.Ecol. Letters

Okey et al. 2015. Ocean & Coastal Management R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015

Major themes How the Strait of Georgia marine ecosystem ‘works’ Masson and Perry. 2013. PiO Process Examples 3. Physics - biology linkages (and marine survival of fish) Enrichment Input of nutrients via intermediate and deep water inflows Replenishment of surface nutrients by mixing and advection Initiation (of Changes in vertical stability of the water column plankton blooms) Seeding of early spring phytoplankton blooms from inlets Retention Topographic containment of the Strait of Georgia system Strong vertical mixing at openings with open ocean Relatively deep median depth (150 m) Mean water replacement time of 20 months Concentration River plume and tidal mixing fronts Feeding and spawning aggregations of fish Trophic (food web) Strong seasonal plankton production cycles Dynamics Large biomass of relatively few mid-trophic level forage species Large biomass of small seasonal migrants out of the Strait (salmon) Timing match–mismatch processes Nearshore/benthic 98% of Perimeter is nearshore habitat Dynamics Nearshore plants contribute to productivity of Strait of Georgia system Strong benthic–pelagic coupling in these shallow areas

How the Strait of Georgia marine ecosystem ‘works’ Strait of Georgia spring bloom timing (model-based)

Initiation

Processes that initiate phytoplankton blooms in the Strait of Georgia Mid- April • interactions of wind and tidal mixing with surface heating and freshwater and the amount of light received by phytoplankton cells • model suggest timing of Spring bloom controlled mostly by local winds, secondarily by cloud cover (Collins et al., 2009) • long term mean date of Spring bloom = 25 March (about yearday 85), but can vary by up to 6 weeks (Collins et al., 2009)

• peak bloom date is estimated to have varied with about decadal Early- periodicity: later in 1970s and 2000s, earlier in 1990s (Allen and March Wolfe, 2013) • interannual variability of bloom date has increased

Allen et al. 2014. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3102: 97

3 09/04/2015

Zooplankton seasonality has been shifting earlier Network models to identify indicators for Coho salmon early marine survival in the Strait of Georgia Indicator Diagnostic value Trend towards Zooplankton biomass 0.212 earlier date of anomaly maximum biomass Calanoid copepod biomass 0.083 of key food web } copepods, Herring biomass (pre- 0.073 associated with fishery) Bayesian network model warming ocean Water temperature 0.056 The 3 best indicators of coho climate Fraser peak discharge time 0.043 early marine survival: • zooplankton biomass Euphausiid biomass 0.032 anomaly, ENSO 0.029 • calanoid copepod biomass, PDO 0.021 • biomass of herring Courtesy D. Mackas Log spring bloom time 0.006 Araujo et al. 2013 Prog. Oceanogr R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 20

Mixed layer depths, 2000 – 2011, Nanoose test range What makes a "good year"? Time series links between zooplankton, ocean conditions, and growth & survival of juvenile fish Monthly anomalies of pseudo–mixed layer depths Coho smolt, USFWS ‘Cybersalmon’ website were especially shallow in spring 2007 at the time of outmigration of Fraser River sockeye

Calanus marshallae by R. Hopcroft

Thomson et al. 2012. Marine and Dave Mackas, Fisheries & Oceans Canada (Institute of Ocean Sciences) Coastal Fisheries. Marc Trudel, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, (Pacific Biological Station) R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Asit Mazumder, Biology Department, University of Victoria Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 10

“Lean Cuisine” Changing Zooplankton and Salmon Communities: Young fish must grow fast to Zooplankton community survive composition also responds strongly to ocean currents and Young fish must temperature eat well to grow Composition anomalies are Large fat larger, and are better predictors zooplankton are of fish growth and survival, than energy rich food anomalies of “Total Biomass” ‘Quality’ Hypothesized mechanism transmits quickly behind the correlation: to higher trophic differences in FOOD QUALITY levels

4 09/04/2015

Major themes Fish-focussed food web models: Strait of Georgia Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model food web for 2009 4. Marine prediction Trophic level Trophic

Preikshot et al. 2013 Pelagic-sourced food web Benthic-sourced PiO

Fish-focussed food web models: Strait of Georgia Projecting climate impacts on fish-centric food webs

Primary production ‘anomaly’ back-calculated from the EwE model, and spring-summer winds at Vancouver airport Optimistic assumption (Earth System Model 2M, rcp26): CO2 emissions under control in next two decades. Increase in SST of 0.5-1ºC by 2060. Declining productivity Pessimistic assumption (Earth System Model 2M, rcp85): of the Strait CO emissions continue to increase linearly. of Georgia 2 since 1990? Increase in SST of 1-1.5ºC by 2060.

Climate Drivers: Temperature, Chl a, Dissolved Oxygen, pH Primary Production Anomaly Resample primary production (Chl a) many times under Wind anomaly optimistic and pessimistic assumptions to produce a Preikshot et al. 2013. probabilistic distribution of potential future ecosystem Prog. Oceanogr states Courtesy: Dave Preikshot et al. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 19 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015

Projecting climate impacts on SofG food webs Projecting climate impacts on food webs Killer whales Killer whales Killer whales Killer whales

Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic

Harbour seals Harbour seals Harbour seals Harbour seals

Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic

5 09/04/2015

PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Major themes NEMURO lower trophic model 5. Monitoring, and ecosystem indicators

M. Kishi. IMBER Imbizo presentation. See also Kishi et al. 2011. J. Oceanogr R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

H. Freeland. 2014. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3102: 23. Spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly in NOAA satellite January 2014 (i.e. January 2014 image of anomalies compared with conditions in of Sea Surface January 1981‐2013). Maximum Temperature in difference is over 4°C, which is September 2014 (i.e. September HUGE temperatures Surface properties: compared with Temperature (red), salinity (green) September 1981‐ Density and a measure of density (sigma‐t; 2013). black), averaged over January at Note how the Ocean Station Papa; warm water in the Shows low variability from 2002 to NE Pacific has Salinity 2013, but huge change in January shifted eastward 2014; towards the coast Surface water with very low density has reduced vertical mixing, and Temperature reduced resupply of nutrients.

State of the Pacific Ocean meeting Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney 10 – 11 March 2015

For information, Email: [email protected] [email protected]

6 09/04/2015

Drivers of change acting on the Strait of Georgia These six variables describe the regime-like behaviour of the Strait 'Parsimonious' of Georgia RDA (Scaling=0) since 1970 15 natural and human Driver & 1971‐1984 1972 Pressure (explanatory) variables 1976 examined for statistical 1975 relationships with 22 State & 1981 1996, 1998‐2007 1973 Impact (response) variables for 1980 1977 1984 the Strait of Georgia, 1970-2010 1971 200220042000 1999 1983 1998 1979 2001

Explanatory variables identified to be 1978 1974 1982 1996 20052007 statistically significant (using 2003 2006 redundancy analysis) were:

• sea surface temperature, 1990 1991 1985 1986 19971995 • wind speed, 19921994 • North Pacific Gyre Oscillation; 1989 • human population, • recreational fishing effort, variance total of 6% 2, Axis RDA 1988

• number of Chinook salmon released 1987 1985‐1995, 1997 from hatcheries -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1993

Perry and Masson. 2013. PiO -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 Perry and R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Masson. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 RDA Axis 1, 66% of total variance 2013. PiO

Major themes

6. ‘New’ management approaches

http://www.psp.wa. gov/vitalsigns/ R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Tools of the Future: Novel genomic technologies Spatial-based management approaches

DNA RNA PROTEIN

Ecologically and biologically significant Microarrays scan the activity of 10’s of 1000’s of areas (EBSAs) in marine genes at once waters of British Columbia Identify genomic signatures that describe the condition of individual fish • Under physiological stress, responding to infections or disease • Feeding or starving, growing fast or slow Massively Parallel Sequencing • Ecosystem monitoring: analyse individuals/samples to rapidly DFO. 2012. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Science Advisory Report monitor all biological agents (e.g. plankton, microbes, 2012/075

pathogens, invasives) Courtesy Kristi Miller-Saunders, PBS R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

7 09/04/2015

Scenarios as tools to project possible futures and Major themes model alternative management actions 7. Human dimensions of marine ecosystems

Great Barrier Reef Climate Change Extreme Extreme Moderate

Adaptation: Limited Ideal Evans et al. 2013 Human Ecology R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Picasso – Landscape with two figures

Human sub-system Scope for human adaptation Marine social- Marine social-ecological Coupled marine social-ecological system Long-term strategies Short-term strategies ecological system • diversification • diversification • innovation • intensification system responses to •networking •migration • education • riding out the storm • political action fish • termination global changes 1. Fish resource “Small” habitat environmental crisis Short-term strategies Long-term strategies • distribution & • abundance change system migration changes • smaller sizes - with a “small” crisis, both 2. Regional marine ecosystem • prey changes • trophic connections •rapid turn-over coping and adapting (*fhs ) Scope for natural system adaptation strategies are available 3. Characteristic climatology/habitat Marine A Natural sub-system Resource Human sub-system 4. The fishery Scope for human adaptation Marine social- - with a “large” crisis, coping System Long-term strategies Short-term strategies ecological system • diversification • diversification strategies are not enough; • innovation • intensification (*MRS ) •networking •migration • education • hibernation only longer-term adapting • political action 5. Related economic activities “Large” • termination environmental strategies are available crisis

Short-term strategies Long-term strategies 6. Management institutions • distribution & • abundance change Some coping strategies used by human migration changes • smaller sizes • prey changes • trophic connections communities and networks may prove •rapid turn-over Bakun and Broad Scope for natural system adaptation detrimental to the biophysical system 7. Socio-political environment (eds) 2002. Climate B Natural sub-system over a longer term and Fisheries. IRI- IPRC Workshop. Perry et al. 2011. Fish and Fisheries Hawaii R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

8 09/04/2015

Major themes Collaboration Network of the Top Publishing Canadian Organizations in Ocean Science, 2003–2011 8. Science Culture

DFO (and to some extent EC) provide a national “backbone” for collaboration with and amongst other institutions Expert Panel on Canadian Ocean Science. 2013. Ocean Science in Canada: Meeting the Challenge, Seizing the Opportunity. Council of Canadian Academies, Ottawa. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8 Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

Collaboration Major themes Network of the Top 30 Publishing 1. Climate change (including ocean acidification) Canadian 2. Multiple stressors / cumulative impacts Organizations in Ocean Science, 3. Physics - biology linkages (and marine survival of fish) 2003–2011 4. Marine prediction (modelling) 5. Monitoring, and ecosystem indicators 6. ‘New’ management approaches 7. Human dimensions of marine ecosystems Expert Panel on Canadian Ocean Science. 2013. Ocean 8. Science Culture Science in Canada: Meeting the Challenge, Seizing the Opportunity. Council of Canadian Academies, Ottawa.

+= ?

R.I. Perry. Ocean Networks Canada; BC Coastal marine sciences workshop. Victoria, 16-17 February 2015 8

9 Ocean Science in Canada: The Charge Meeting the Challenge, Seizing the Opportunity

What are Canada’s needs and capacities with regard to the major research questions in ocean science that would enable it to address Canadian ocean issues and issues relating to Canada’s coasts, and enhance its leading role as an international partner in ocean science?

Council of Canadian Academies Science Advice in the Public Interest Conseil des académies canadiennes Le savoir au service du public

The Assessment Methodology Overview: Ocean Science in Canada

Collaboration Network of the Top 30 Publishing Main Finding # 1 Canadian Organizations in Ocean Science, 2003–2011

The state of human capacity cannot be determined because of data limitations.

The multidisciplinary and diverse nature of the field, which is one of the strengths of ocean science, makes it difficult to assess overall trends.

1 Main Finding # 2 Main Finding # 3

Canada has a substantive research fleet operated by the Coast Guard which includes several large Canada has several world‐class systems for ocean oceanographic vessels and a research ice‐breaker. observation and monitoring; however, challenges exist in achieving geographical coverage and The current age of the fleet is a reason for concern; integrating data management. however a fleet renewal is underway, which will offer opportunities to improve capacity.

Main Finding # 4 Main Finding # 5

Although funding for ocean science in Canadian Canada ranks among the top countries in output universities has been increasing, trends in total and impact of ocean science papers, but this funding are unclear due to insufficient data. position is at risk.

Main Finding #6 Arctic Questions

1. What are the processes affecting sea ice change in the Arctic? What Using the 40 research questions determined in phase, is the time horizon for a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean? What will the panel identified opportunities and challenges for be the climatic, biogeochemical, ecological, socio- economic, cultural, and geopolitical impacts of the seasonal disappearance of ocean science in Canada in specific research themes sea ice?

1. What is the effect of climate change on biogeochemical cycles (carbon, nutrients, essential elements, contaminants) in the Arctic Ocean, and what are the feedbacks and connections to the global ocean?

2 Arctic Questions Atmosphere‐Ocean‐Seafloor feedbacks

5. What is the spatial extent, frequency, and risk of marine hazards affecting Canadian coastal waters (e.g., hydrate-triggered landslides, 3. How will ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic Ocean tsunamis, earthquakes, extreme storm events), and what is needed for and surrounding seas be affected by and affect climate change, and better forecasting of these hazards in a time of climate change and how will the productivity, biodiversity, and services of Arctic benthic, changing coastal populations and infrastructures? pelagic, and sea ice ecosystems respond? 6. How do global biogeochemical fluxes – between the surface 4. How do the ocean, land, and continental sea floor interact in the ocean, the ocean interior , and the seabed (e.g., carbon and nitrogen Arctic? How will interactions evolve under climate change? What transport) – affect the ocean system, how do they respond to regions are at risk of being affected by erosion, flooding, infrastructure environmental change, and how are they recorded in accumulating destabilization, permafrost thawing, or gas hydrate sublimation? sediments? 7. How did the ocean function under past climates, and how can paleo- oceanographic records be used to predict the future state of the ocean-atmosphere system?

Atmosphere‐Ocean‐Seafloor feedbacks Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8. How will climate change affect the magnitude and spatial patterns of atmosphere-ocean-sea-floor exchanges of important greenhouse 11. How do changes in species interactions affect food web structure gases (e.g., methane, carbon dioxide) and aerosols? within and across ecosystems? 9. What are the natural mechanisms through which the ocean and the 12. How will changes in biodiversity affect the functioning of ocean seabed can mitigate climate change (e.g., CO sequestration), and 2 ecosystems? what are the risks of manipulating these mechanisms (e.g., changing the albedo, fertilizing the ocean)? 13. What are the patterns and drivers of the temporal and spatial dynamics of biological diversity and marine genetic resources, 10. How will the sea level change over the next century from various especially poorly sampled taxa and areas? sources (melting of continental glaciers and ice sheets, seawater expansion, regional circulation, geological rebound, and gravitational 14. How do management practices and natural variability influence how field), and what will the impacts be on coastal ecosystems as well as pathogens and parasites affect the abundance of marine species? broader impacts in human societies on global and regional scales?

Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystems Monitoring, data and information management

18. What in situ sensors and platforms need to be developed to 15. What will be the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification expand observation capacity for biological, chemical, physical, and on marine ecosystems, biodiversity, resource management, and coastal geological ocean properties? communities? 19. What is the detailed bathymetry and character of the sea floor in 16. How will changes in water quality, as a result of hypoxia, Canada's three ocean margins? What new technologies are required to eutrophication, land-sea coupling, pathogens, contaminants, particles, and map and characterize the sea floor and its habitats? acidification, affect marine organisms associated with fisheries and aquaculture, especially sensitive life stages? 20. What observations are required to monitor and understand processes affecting deep water circulation, such as the meridional 17. How are the movements and survival of marine organisms, overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic, ventilation of the including invasive species, being affected by environmental change, and North Pacific, freshwater flux out of the Arctic Ocean, and the what are the socio-ecological impacts? thermohaline circulation in the Southern Ocean?

3 Monitoring, data and information Understanding impacts of human activities management

21. What are the long-term trends in three- dimensional distributions of key 25. What indicators are available to assess the state of the ocean, oceanographic variables (temperature, biomass, oxygen saturation, salinity, what is the significance of changes observed in those indicators, and carbon system, sea-level change, currents, etc.) in the world’s oceans? what additional indicators need to be developed? Where and how should these variables be measured to monitor long- term trends? 26. What would be the environmental and social impacts, benefits, and risks of human activities in oceans undergoing change due to 22. How can both meteorological and oceanographic observations and extractive industries, fishing, tourism, navigation, and traditional uses? development of an operational coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean assimilation and prediction capability be used to improve prediction of 27. What are the impacts of oil spills in cold and deep oceans and climate and marine ecosystem change? under sea ice, and what are the appropriate strategies and technologies for prevention and mitigation? 23. How can autonomous and networked platform infrastructures and sensors be developed to deliver comparable ocean data and data products 28. What are the effects of marine exploration and exploitation of for observation, monitoring, analysis, and decision-making? living and mineral resources on benthic ecosystems and seafloor conditions, especially in deep water? 24. How can a network of Canadian ocean observations be established, operated, and maintained to identify environmental change and its impacts?

Understanding impacts of human activities Informing governance and management

29. What factors are impeding the recovery of depleted marine 33. What are the economic, ecological, social, and political or legal species and affected commercial fisheries and communities, and what impacts of alternative governance systems, and what are the can be done to address those factors to promote stock recovery? appropriate capacities and institutions needed to govern for ocean and coastal sustainability? 30. What are the ambient underwater noise levels, and what are the consequences of changing underwater human-generated noise (e.g., 34. What research, information, and tools are required to govern ocean ship noise, oil exploration, and increased noise propagation use in the context of cumulative, interactive effects on socio- accompanying declines in pH)? ecological systems?

31. What are the fates and impacts of plastics, nanomaterials, and 35. What measures are required to ensure appropriate and effective emerging synthetic contaminants in the ocean? participation of diverse coastal communities in ocean and coastal management and governance? 32. How can marine science and policy develop a more socio- ecological approach to change so as to recognize the 36. How can northern and coastal communities, and their knowledge interdependence and adaptive capacity of people and the marine systems, be more empowered and engaged in ocean research, environment? monitoring, and management in order to build adaptive capacity?

Informing governance and management Main Finding #7

37. How are areas and/or species of special vulnerability, such as "hotspots" of relatively high diversity or function, identified, monitored and protected under conditions of uncertainty and in the context of global change? How can the related capacities to carry out these activities be improved? New networks and collaborations are emerging to 38. What strategic decision-making frameworks are required to establish address some of the challenges faced by the ocean a socially and ecologically sustainable balance between aquaculture science community, such as those posed by Canada’s and wild fisheries in marine ecosystems? geography. However, coordination gaps remain. 39. What technologies and strategies are needed to develop and deliver ocean-based renewable and non-renewable energy and minerals to society with minimal harm to the ocean environment?

40. How can the development and governance of sustainable ocean- based food production systems help to achieve local and global food security, and enhance the health and well-being of coastal communities?

4 Networks and Alignments Final Conclusion

New types of funding opportunities, consortia and alignments are changing the way ocean scientists collaborate. Due to its geography and historic capacity, Canada not only has remarkable opportunities in ocean science, but a necessity to The Panel identified several gaps: seize these opportunities to use and protect the ocean. • Vision gap: No overarching national strategy or vision for Addressing the vision, coordination, and information gaps is the entire ocean science community. essential if Canada is to unlock these opportunities. • Coordination gap: Insufficient coordination among regional clusters. This requires a national effort involving the entire ocean science • Information gap: Insufficient information about ocean community as well as its users in government, the private science activities and capacities across the country. sector, and civil society.

5 “UBC” Research plans in 1) General circulation: – Tide/Wind/buoyancy-driven drift coastal BC

Rich Pawlowicz Depends on: Dept. of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, • CODAR (incl. expansion) Also including input from • Winds, river R. Francois, M. Maldonado, E.Pakhomov, S. Hallam, S. Waterman flow BUT NOT • Possibly ferry S. Allen • More drifter observations?

(Partially funded for future)

Gaps: • Where does freshwater go? ("""#/("# ) ), * ""#/1 '#,3 4 867:26826; 867:26826; ""#/ #""3 #$4

1) General- “UBC” Research plans in coastal BC circulation – Intermediate layer in SoG • No UBC-coordinated objectives • Many collaborations with other organizations Depends on: • Node ADCP, CTD • No central data management • Deep drifters? • Ship observations

(partially funded for future, more funding • I have NOT included the whole scope of likely)

UBC coastal BC (or even Strait of Georgia) Gaps: research…but here are some examples. • Scale/variability of cyclonic circulation?

867:26827; 867:26826;

My Research plans in coastal BC 2) Biogeochemical cycling – O2 and productivity

Depends on: • Objectives • Ferry program • Extra sampling from ferries, more sensors? 1. General Circulation (Temperature, Salinity) • Satellite imagery

• SoG, other inlets (Nitinat, Rivers, Barkley) (no future funding at present) 2. Biogeochemical cycles (O , NO , Si(OH) ) Gaps: 2 3 4 • Links to community structure • Budgets and fluxes • Biological parameters (growth etc.) and 3. Small-scale Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFD) “Redfield” ratios. • Verification • Comparative studies for • River plumes, internal waves, salt wedge, double-diffusion other areas (Barkley, other inlets) • Resources needed • Future Plans

867:26826; 867:26826; 0 '"$#+0 2) Biogeochemical cycling – Steven Hallam, Particulate fluxes Department of Microbiology (and effects on & Immunology, UBC organic pollutants)

"% )$0" # • Interested in microbial mediated biogeochemical cycling in low-O2 waters 0 including Saanich Inlet (time series monitoring program for the past 8 years). Depends on: • Working with VENUS to develop next generation in situ sampling capacity • Node ADCP, CTD, ferry using environmental sample processor (ESP) technology to be integrated program into the Saanich observatory. • Field observations ($$) • Funded for some of this work through NSERC-DG, CFI and collaborations (likely to funded for future) with the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute over the next two years but would like to see more resources directed toward field operations and Gaps: technical support through ONC if possible. • Particulate fluxes in general (time, space) • The ESP development work is extensible to coastal monitoring in general • Scavenging of contaminants and could be used for harmful algal bloom detection, fisheries or environmental impact assessments 867:26826; 867:26827:

3) Small-scale GFD: Fraser River plume dynamics Evgeny Pakhomov, EOAS UBC

Depends on: • Conducting detailed SoG zooplankton surveys 3-4 times per year • CODAR (w/ Perry, Dower, others) for next 2 years. Funding by the Pacific • Ferry program Salmon Foundation (technician, gear, consumables), linked to • (winds, flow) salmon early marine survival theme. Sampling platforms mostly • Drifter DFO ships plus “citizen science” boats be paid for by PSF. experiments? • Plankton-to-fish monitoring in Northern SoG and North coast (funded at least next 3 years by Tula, DFO, PSD) (funded) • Fraser River estuary zooplankton/physics (biweekly sampling Gaps: 2014-2015) • CODAR reliability • Jet structure of plume • Mixing and entrainment

867:26826; 867:268279

3) Small-scale GFD Stephanie Waterman, $"(# EOAS, UBC 3## % ."% . !'$"% #4% . !'$"% #4 • recently acquired 1000 m Slocum "#"#$) '2'# ) ) G2 thrustered glider: T/S/O2/Chl/ 3" ##2 3 #$("+$44 CDOM/optical backscatter, plus #$"'$'"4 microRider( Rockland Scientific) to measure turbulent microstructure

Wang and Pawlowicz,P J. Geophys. Res., 2011 • Interests in shelf-basin exchange and mixing processes that deliver deep waters to the shelf • keen to consider partnering to do repeat glider missions on WCVI looking at these processes (but no funding yet!)

867:26826; Tedford et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2009 Scheifele et al., J. Phys. Oceanogr., 2014 867:268279 MEOPAR MEOPAR Structure

MEOPAR in BC: Observational Requests

Susan Allen

Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences University of British Columbia

February 15, 2015

1 4

MEOPAR Outline Prediction, Observation and Response Cores

Provide support and knowledge for the projects What is MEOPAR? Little observations in west, Rich Pawlowicz’s work is under Project 1.1 MEOPAR data needs with a focus on the Salish Sea Model Model core has been of great help to me: Other Susan Allen BC projects Youyu Lu’s team conﬁgured the initial model grid Summary Jim Christian’s team is welcoming my new post-doc into the world of PISCES

2 5

MEOPAR MEOPAR What is MEOPAR? Theme 2: Seasons to Decades

Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network An NSERC Network of Centres of Excellence (NCE) 2.1 Climate Change and Extreme Events in the Marine Environment Led 5 years renewable multiple times by Bill Merryﬁeld. No BC data requests. Based at Dalhousie, led by Doug Wallace 2.2 Biogeochemical Projections under a Changing Climate Led by Katja Strong Social Science component Fennel, little BC presence. Emphasis on producing useful products for Stakeholders

3 6 MEOPAR Salish Sea Model Project 1.2 A Network of Fixed Coastal Observing and Forcing Forecast Systems

Winds: Environment Canada : HRDPS 2.5 km resolution (downloaded from Web) Jointly led by Jinyu Sheng and myself Rivers: 149: Climatology (John Morrison), Fraser River: Environment Two ﬁxed systems: Halifax Harbour and Strait of Georgia Canada (downloaded from Web) Social component in BC Tides: 8 tidal constituents : WebTide + tuning Stephanie Chang’s group (based at UBC) on community vulnerability Sea surface height anomaly at Neah Bay : NOAA (downloaded from and risk due to transportation disruption and sea-level rise Web) Ron Pelot’s group (based in Dalhousie) on ship collision risk Temperature and Salinity Climatology, Juan de Fuca (from Masson and Fine), Johnstone Strait (from Thomson and Foreman)

7 10

Salish Sea Model Salish Sea Model MEOPAR UBC Salish Sea Model: Domain Data Needs, Wants, Requests

Evaluation: Future Additional ONC Ferry Chl and Oxygen ONC deep currents, oxygen and Evaluation: Current nitrate, pH, pCO2 Foreman tidal constituents CODAR CHS/NOAA Tidal Gauges more Tidal Gauges IOS/UBC CTD surveys Halibut Bank temperature ONC Salinity Ferry Data Oﬀ Oak Bay, near thalweg ONC deep salinity/temperature currents, salinity, temperature, Drifter Data nitrate, oxygen, pH, pCO2 and turbulence Powell River Comox Ferry: salinity, oxygen, Chl

8 11

Salish Sea Model Salish Sea Model Model Data Needs, Wants, Requests # 2

Full three-dimensional stratiﬁed model salishsea.eos.ubc.ca/ with tides storm-surge Assimiliation Based on NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) ONC deep oxygen, nitrate, pH and pCO2 Horizontal grid space about 500 m ONC ferry data including Powell River/Comox ferry Vertical grid spacing 1 m near surface, CODAR 20 m at bottom (430 m) Zooplankton backscatter? Run daily : nowcast and forecast for Oak Bay data tomorrow Discovery Channel, current, temperature, salinity, oxygen, nitrate, pH, Storm surge evaluated, surface salinity pCO2. Also a cool place to measure turbulence. good Working on circulation, mixing and adding biogeochemistry module

9 12 Salish Sea Model Susan Allen : Canyons and West Coast of Vancouver Island Project 1.1 Relocatable Model UBC & MEOPAR Model of the Salish Sea

1 Nitrate at the ONC nodes Led by Hal Ritchie the goal is to develop a model that can be dropped 2 into an area (without a dedicated model) if there is an emergency. pCO2 and pH at the ONC nodes On our coast, this would include outside of Vancouver Island and Haida 3 Data from the thalweg near Oak Bay Gwaii, for example, where there are not active forecast models. 4 Powell River/Comox ferry This model will assimilate data. 5 Discovery Channel

13 16

Salish Sea Model Other Projects

Other MEOPAR projects include: 1 (funded) Modelling and Predicting Disease Outbreak and Spread in Coastal Seas: Towards Sustainability in Fisheries and Aquaculture Principal Investigator: Martin Krkosek, University of Toronto with Foreman, Chandler and Mark Lewis Focused in Discovery Passage 2 (proposed) Ocean Acidiﬁcation including Debby Ianson and my project to look at Baynes Sound using grid-reﬁned version of the Salish Sea model.

Susan Allen : Canyons and West Coast of Vancouver Island Beyond MEOPAR

My group continues work on submarine canyons and in particular, the canyons of the West Coast of Vancouver Island. We will use the available data and hope that will include VPS and glider data but have no speciﬁc data requests.

15 09/04/2015

Modeling ship movements: To explore and improve the utility and modeling of Applications for noise exposure to the marine vessel traffic, as an indicator of noise exposure to enable government, industry, marine ecosystem communities and ENGOs mitigate marine noise impacts 2014‐2017 1. Build reliable, comprehensive Amundsen Gulf spatio‐temporal model of Rosaline Canessa, University of Victoria SGaan Kinghlas‐ Rodolphe Devillers, Memorial University vessel movements Bowie Seamount Stan Matwin, Dalhousie University MPA Patrick O’Hara, Environment Canada/University of Victoria 2. Model cumulative noise Ron Pelot, Dalhousie University Svein Vagle, DFO/University of Victoria exposure from marine vessels Salish Sea 3. Integrate vessel traffic models and noise exposure models with decision making and outreach

BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop, Victoria February 16, 2015 BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop, Victoria February 16, 2015

Marine Vessel Movements Cumulative Noise Exposure

• Multiple sources: • Existing hydrophones Satellite AIS, Shore‐ based AIS, Long Range Identification and SGaan Kinghlas‐Bowie Seamount Tracking (LRIT)

• Small vessels: National large vessel near Aerial Surveillance hydrophone Program (NASP) airphotos

BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop, Victoria February 16, 2015 BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop, Victoria February 16, 2015

Mitigating Noise Impact

NOAA Fisheries

BC Coastal Marine Science Workshop, Victoria February 16, 2015

1 4/9/2015

Pacific Salmon Foundation (PSF)

Pacific Salmon Foundation • Mission: to provide thoughtful leadership in the conservation, restoration, and enhancement of Pacific salmon and their ecosystems

Eileen Jones & Isobel Pearsall February 16, 2015

Skeena Salmon Program

• Develop methods for assessing salmon populations & their habitat • Synthesize best available information Skeena Salmon Program Salish Sea Marine Survival Project • Create decision support tools

Community Salmon Program

Salish Sea Marine Survival Project

• Coordinated by PSF & Long Live the Kings • Program of ecosystem research & habitat restoration Skeena Salmon Program • Examine factors affecting survival of juvenile salmon & steelhead

1 4/9/2015

Skeena Salmon Program Skeena Salmon Program

Habitat Status Assessments Biological Status Assessments a) Freshwater status assessments • Summarize key stock information • evaluate relative vulnerability to • Examine different metrics for regional threats & pressures evaluating biological status • remote‐sensed information b) Estuary Assessment • describe salmon habitat characteristics • identify key pressures • Identify knowledge gaps • monitoring recommendations

Skeena Salmon Program Addressing Key Knowledge Gaps

Decision Support Tools • Provide ongoing assessments of habitat & biological status • Centralized online database • Detailed freshwater habitat assessments (Tier 2) • Data visualization platform • Information gaps for Skeena estuary

Salish Sea Marine • Comprehensive study of physical, chemical & biological factors Survival Project impacting salmon survival • US‐Canadian alignment • 2014‐2018 • Bottom up and Top down approaches

2 4/9/2015

Citizen Science Program Moorings & Remote Sensing

• Volunteer boats in 8 locations: • Fluorometers measuring surface Sechelt/Madeira Park, Campbell chlorophyll fluorescence, River, Victoria, Deep Bay, turbidity and temperature at Cowichan Bay, Lund, Powell Halibut Bank, Sentry Shoal & River, Nanaimo/Qualicum. Egmont • Next‐ Steveston • Also 3 moorings in Cowichan Bay • Team: Ocean Networks Canada, • Remote sensing projects‐ vessel IOS staff, SSMSP technicians data (BC ferries, citizen science) will be used to calibrate and validate satellite imagery and products

Strait of Georgia hydrographic & Ichthyoplankton and Forage fish zooplankton sampling • Hydroacoustic surveys for forage (Pacific herring, mesopelagic fish, Red –current net krill (euphausiids), other zooplankton, and ichthyoplankton ) and stations Blue –proposed net demersal fish stations • Forage fish habitat assessments (surf smelt, Pacific sand lance, and Yellow – current rosette capelin) White – current CTD • YOY herring surveys

Juvenile Salmon Studies Telemetry Arrays to Track Juvenile Salmon

• Juvenile salmon studies‐ Cowichan Bay, Baynes Sound, Puntledge, Big Qualicum, Fraser River

3 4/9/2015

Data Management www.sogdatacentre.ca Other Studies • Predation • Built to International Standards o Bird • Geoserver, Geonetwork, PostGIS o Fish

o Seals • Designed to: • Harmful Algae o serve as a central data repository o to protect & collate marine ecosystem • Contaminants –program under information for the Strait

development o to allow for data sharing & integration • Salmon Habitat • Hatchery‐Wild Interactions • Aquaculture‐Wild Interactions

Funding Sources & Partners

www.skeenasalmonprogram.ca

www.marinesurvivalproject.com

4 09/04/2015

DISCOVER THE OCEAN. UNDERSTAND THE PLANET. DISCOVERWHAT THE THE OCEAN. OCEAN IS UNDERSTAND TELLING US ABOUT THE PLANET.CLIMATE CHANGE | APRIL 23, 2013

Smart Oceans BC

Outline

• Core Instruments

• Proposed sites SMART OCEANS BC

Adrian Round Director, Observatory Operations

AN INITIATIVE OF AN INITIATIVE OF AN INITIATIVE OF

DISCOVERWHAT THE THE OCEAN. OCEAN IS UNDERSTAND TELLING US ABOUT THE PLANET.CLIMATE CHANGE | APRIL 23, 2013 DISCOVERWHAT THE THE OCEAN. OCEAN IS UNDERSTAND TELLING US ABOUT THE PLANET.CLIMATE CHANGE | APRIL 23, 2013

Smart Oceans BC Smart Oceans BC Community Observatory Core Instruments • AML METREC-X • Community Observatories • CTD, turbidity, UV • • WetLabs ECO and Aanderaa Optode Shore Stations • Spare piggyback port • CODAR sites • AML UV protection system • X-Band wave/current sites • OceanSonics IcListen HF (4) • WERA site • Jasco AMR hydrophone array (1) • Outreach camera