WORKSHOP EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE G CAPT David Martin, USN, Ph.D., Director, Ocean.US G Dr. Larry Atkinson, Dept of Oceanography, Old Dominion University G Dr. Thomas Malone, Center for Environmental Science, Univ. of Maryland G Dr. Worth Nowlin, Dept of Oceanography, Texas A&M University WORKSHOP SUPPORT STAFF OCEAN.US G Ms. Rosalind Cohen G Ms. Muriel Cole G Mr. Patrick Dennis G Dr. Stephen Piotrowicz NOAA G Ms. Judy Hickey NOPP PROGRAM OFFICE G Dr. William Fornes G Ms. Shannon Gordon G Mr. Robert Wagner Special thanks to Ms. Shelby Walker, Sea Grant Knauss Fellow, NSF Photos by Andrew Gordon Edited by Mark Schrope, Open Water Media Please refer to this document as follows: Ocean.US, 2002. Building Consensus: Toward an Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observing System (IOOS). Ocean.US, Arlington, VA. 175pp Electronic copy of this document is available at http://www.ocean.us.net/ BUILDING CONSENSUS: TOWARD AN INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINED OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM Ocean.US Workshop Proceedings Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia March 10-15, 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS 1. THE WORKSHOP AND ITS GOALS 5 2. WORKSHOP RECOMMENDATIONS 6 3. BACKGROUND 9 3.1 Recent History of Planning for a Sustained IOOS 3.2 Workshop Planning and Organization 3.3 Workshop Perceptions 4. RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 13 4.1 Potential variables and techniques 4.2 Ranking variables for the National Backbone 4.3 Evaluating techniques for the National Backbone 4.4 Guidelines for phased implementation 4.5 Data Management and Communications 4.6 Economic Considerations 4.7 Consensus recommendations 5. APPENDICES 26 I. “An Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observing System For the United States: Design and Implementation” 27 II. MOA Creating Ocean.US 29 III. Workshop Participants 33 IV. Workshop Agenda 40 V. Background Papers 41 1. Detecting and Predicting Climate Variability 41 2. Facilitating Safe and Efficient Marine Operations 52 3. Ensuring National Security 56 4. Managing Living Resources 61 5. Preserving and Restoring Healthy Ecosystems 65 6. Mitigating Natural Hazards 73 7. Ensuring Public Health 77 8. A Data and Communication Infrastructure for the U.S. Integrated Sustained Ocean Observing System 82 9. Economics of a US Integrated Ocean Observing System 89 TABLE OF TABLE CONTENTS 1 VI. Collated list of subgoals, provisional products and variables 95 VII. Results of Phase II: Ranking of Variables by Each Breakout Group 105 VIII. Variables and Categorization of Techniques 114 IX. Scenarios for Phased Implementation of an IOOS 143 X. Data and Communications Report 165 XI. Economics Report 169 FIGURES 1. Impact-feasibility analysis (IFA) of techniques 11 2. Categorization of techniques in terms of their impact and feasibility 18 3. The Data and Communications subsystem. 22 TABLES 1. Workshop Steering Committee Executive Committee 10 2. Rankings of variables that measure attributes of oceanic and coastal marine systems. 17 3. Non-ocean variables that are drivers of changes in oceanic and coastal marine systems 17 4. Results of the impact-feasibility analysis (IFA) for the top 20 ocean-coastal marine system variables 19 5. Development of an Operational Observation System 20 6. Members and institutional affiliations of the Data and Communications Steering Committee 23 7. Example of a cost-benefit analysis for ocean observing variables 24 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND that are relevant to all of the seven goals and that should, therefore, be incorporated into a federally The goal of the Ocean.US workshop was to provide supported national system of data acquisition, manage- information and guidance for the formulation of a ment and analysis. Based on this consensus, various phased implementation plan for a sustained and inte- observing technologies were examined to determine the grated ocean observing system (IOOS) for the U.S. The optimum methods for observing the ocean and coastal system is intended to provide the data information marine ecosystems in terms of: required to achieve seven major goals: 1 What is ready to implement now? G Improve predictions of climate change and 2 What elements are ready to transition from its effects on coastal populations research into an operational system? G Mitigate more effectively the effects of 3 What research and development activities natural hazards should be given high priority to develop a fully G Improve the safety and efficiency of integrated system? marine operations G Improve national security The workshop also addressed the need to identify socio- G Reduce public health risks economic benefits from the observing system. Cost- G More effectively protect and restore benefit analyses are needed with initial emphasis on healthy coastal marine ecosystems those products that have potentially broad application G Sustain living marine resources and a significant return on investment. An integrated observing system consists of three closely The workshop process (consensus building) and its linked subsystems: (1) the measurement (monitoring) results provided the basis for formulating a design and subsystem, (2) the data management and communica- implementation plan requested by Congress (completed tions subsystem, and (3) the data analysis-modeling 23 May, 2002, Appendix I) and a detailed, multi-agency subsystem. This workshop focused on measurements phased implementation plan for developing the system and data management. over the next 5-10 years (to be completed in CY 2002). This will not be the final plan. It will be periodically The first workshop task was to come to a consensus on reviewed and updated as information needs become the subgoals and provisional products for each goal more defined and as new technologies and knowledge above. The resulting lists were used to formulate a com- become available. The actions recommended below are prehensive list of potential variables and observational first steps and are intended to significantly improve the techniques to be considered for the national backbone ability of government agencies to achieve missions and of the observing system. Variables were then ranked goals that require ocean observations. based on the number of subgoals to which they are rel- evant. The highest ranked variables are recommended RECOMMENDATIONS for incorporation into the national backbone of obser- vations. Potential techniques for measuring these vari- (1) Highest priority was given to the establishment of an ables (platforms, sensors, methods) were then evaluated integrated subsystem for data management and commu- based on their feasibility and their importance to pro- nications (the DAC) that transcends government agen- viding the data required to detect and predict changes in cies, individual research and monitoring programs, and the phenomena of interest identified in the subgoals. research institutions. Consequently, the establishment This impact-feasibility analysis and the ranking of vari- of a DAC Steering Committee to develop the ables provided the basis for achieving a consensus on preliminary design into a formal DAC implementation high-priority actions needed to develop an IOOS for the plan by the end of CY 2002 was considered an immedi- Nation. ate priority. Through these activities the workshop articulated the (2) Based on technical feasibility and importance, the community consensus on the core set of ocean variables following core variables were given high priority for EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 incorporation into the national backbone of the IOOS: G Increase the number of ship-days devoted to stock assessments and measurements of key G Physical: salinity, temperature, bathymetry, ecosystem variables (ecosystem based fisheries sea level, surface waves, vector currents, ice management) from 3,000 to 6,000. concentration, surface heat flux, bottom characteristics G Invest in aircraft remote sensing to detect changes in distributions and physiological G Chemical: water column contaminants, condition of biologically structured habitats dissolved inorganic nutrients, dissolved oxygen (coral reefs, sea grass beds, kelp beds, tidal marshes, etc.), changes in shoreline (coastal G Biological: fish species and abundance, erosion), and the distribution and abundance of zooplankton species and abundance, optical marine mammals and turtles. properties, ocean color, phytoplankton species G Enhance satellite capabilities to improve the accuracy and resolution of sea surface height, In addition to those variables required to character- surface waves and currents, winds over water, ize the marine environment, the following variables sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, are required to quantify the external drivers of and sea surface chlorophyll-a and other change on a national scale: phytoplankton pigments in shallow coastal waters. G Meteorological: vector winds, temperature, pressure, precipitation, humidity (4) Improvements in the initial observing system will require substantial research and development. High pri- G Terrestrial: river discharge orities include: G Human health and use: seafood contamina- G Development of HF radar (coastal currents tion, water column concentration of human and wave fields) pathogens. G Gliders (water column profiling) These variables should be considered high priority for incorporation into programs that are to be G Enhanced satellite remote sensing including linked to form an integrated system of observations. extension of remote sensing capabilities into shallow coastal waters with high resolution of (3) In parallel