Photo 1. Landslide in the village of Topcic Polje, near Zenica (central Bosnia), 15 May 2014 Source: huffingtonpost.com SEM 2015 186 ELISE HAUMONT The May 2014 Floods in Bosnia and Herzegovina ay 2014 will probably be remembered for decades in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Never in living memory had the country been struck by such a large and destructive natural disaster, as record-breaking levels of rainfall led to gigantic floods, and numerous landslides. Tens of thousands of people had to urgently flee the rising water levels, while others had to leave their homes for good as they were destroyed or buried. As is often the case when such a disaster occurs, some popu- lations proved more vulnerable than others; in this particular case, the Roma minori- Mties and the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from the Balkan war were worse affected. The evacuation of flooded areas was not planned beforehand and proved extremely chaotic. Temporary accommodation facilities were created ad hoc in buildings that were not designed to house people. The vast majority of those evacu- ated and displaced sought shelter with relatives, yet there is very little information about them. International aid proved crucial in reconstruction efforts, especially for rebuilding houses and recovering livelihoods, while the Bosnian public authori- ties, divided among numerous administrative levels demonstrated a weak response capability. 1. AN UNPRECEDENTED NATURAL DISASTER WITH ENORMOUS DAMAGE 1.1. Extraordinary levels of rainfall lead to mass flooding and landslides Bosnia and Herzegovina is largely a mountainous country, except for its northern part which reaches into the Pannonian basin. The Sava River, the largest in the country, forms a natural border with Croatia to the north. To the east, the Drina River follows the border with Serbia. A low-pressure area designated “Yvette” or “Tamara” affected a large area of south-eastern and central Europe. Continuous, heavy rainfall, commencing on 13 May, resulted in extensive flooding in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and Croatia. Three months’ worth of rain fell in the space of only three days; the heav- iest rainfall in BiH since records began in 1894 (ACAPS, 2014). “Given the country’s topography, a vast number of rivers descend from higher elevations and feed into the Sava downstream. This caused sudden flash floods and extended inundations in the vast lower plains, where much of the country’s food and agricultural production is concentrated. Water moved downstream and upon reaching the River Sana, which also received flows from its tributaries to the east, remained above normal levels for many weeks; this impeded the normal discharge and recession in the flooded areas” (BiH Floods – Recovery Needs Assessment, 2014). In some places, the water reached the second floor of houses. SEM 2015 187 ELISE HAUMONT THE MAY 2014 FLOODS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: EUROPE EVACUATION AND DISPLACEMENT Figure 1. Deadly flood across souhest Europe Source: IOM, June 2014, Overview on IOM activities, Humanitarian Situation Report Rapid field assessment carried out on 3-4 June 2014 In BiH, between 1 and 1.5 million people are estimated to have been affected (out of a total population of 3.8 million). Affected areas cover approximately one-third of the country: Tuzla canton, Sarajevo canton, Zenica-Doboj canton, Bosnia-Podrinje canton, Una-Sana canton, Brčko district, and the regions of Banja Luka, Doboj, Bijeljina, Odžak, Bosanski Šamac and Srebrenica. The most affected were Bosanski Šamac, Odžak, Orašje, Doboj, Bijeljina, Brčko, and Maglaj. Floodwaters persisted for a number of weeks across a large portion of the affected area, restricting aid access, and impeding the return of the population and the resumption of agricultural and economic activity. As such, a full inspection that would have enabled a prompt estimation of the damage, effects and needs was further complicated and delayed. 1.2. Damage, casualties and immediate threats These floods are considered to be the most serious natural disaster in the country in the past 120 years. Houses endured various forms of damage, depending on the level that waters reached and on the solidity of the construction. Moreover, heavy rains caused over 3,000 landslides which in some areas completely covered dwellings. Data provided by the Government of BiH on 28 May 2014, account for 852 completely destroyed houses, 47,745 damaged, and 6,109 at risk of being affected by landslides (IOM, June 2014). At the UN Head of Missions meeting in September, the number of damaged housing units was estimated to be 38,000, while Reliefweb, on its page on the Balkan floods, Overview, cites 75,000 damaged houses, of which 25,000 were SEM 2015 188 severely damaged. Naturally, electricity and communications were cut off, many roads, bridges and transport facilities rendered unusable, sanitation facilities were damaged and the water supply polluted. Livestock were severely affected as well as crops and yields. The total economic impact of the disaster is estimated to have reached 2.04 billion EUR or 15% of BiH’s GDP in 2014 (Delegation of the EU to Bosnia and Herzegovina). According to official statistics, 25 people died as a result of the disaster11. As of 19 May, it is estimated that more than one million people did not have access to drink- able water or other basic needs including food, especially for babies, clothes, medi- cines, and construction materials. The temperature rose to 30 degrees Celsius in the days following the disaster, and the risk of outbreaks of disease was high due to the large number of rotting animal carcasses. As this paper will explore, the extent of the damage caused by the May 2014 floods was aggravated by BiH’s civil war heritage. This 3 and a half-year conflict that ended less than 20 years ago caused around 100,000 casualties in total, and displaced over 2,2 million people. Another consequence of the civil war, constituting an additional security threat, is the fact that 70% of the flood-affected zone is landmines-contam- inated (BiH Floods – Recovery Needs Assessment, 2014). Landslides and flooding caused some landmines and unexploded ordnances to move. Mine warning signs were also washed away or displaced. A mine exploded in Brčko district but nobody was injured. The issue of shifting minefields also affected the provision of assis- tance, since the government warned against the use of roads without prior clearance (ACAPS, 2014). Securing these affected areas will take years. Bosnian foreign minister Zlatko Lagumdzija did not hesitate to compare the damages caused by the floods to those caused by the 1992-1995 war: “The physical destruction is not less than the destruction caused by the war. […] During the war, many people lost everything. Today, again they have nothing.” A large number of Bosnians also made the comparison, as their distress revived traumatic memories from the civil war (characterised by mass bombings of towns, ethnic cleansing and mass rape), which explain why psychological support was such a priority in relief and recovery assistance programmes. 1.3. New floods in August and September hit already weakened areas This paper will focus on the May 2014 floods and their consequences in terms of displacement because they were exceptionally huge in size. However, it is worth noting that two other episodes of heavy rainfall led to floods and landslides in the following months. In affected regions, they considerably slowed the recovery efforts and caused further damage to already weakened areas. From 5 to 8 August, heavy rainfall caused flooding and landslides in Croatia, Serbia and central and northern Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Government of the Federa- tion of BiH, Brcko District, Banja Luka, Celinac, Kozarska Dubica, Petrovo, and Kosta- jnica declared a state of natural and other disasters. Some areas that were hit by the May floods were flooded again (i.e. Zenica, Topcic Polje, Zepce, Zeljezno Polje, Banja Luka, Srebrenik, Tuzla, Celic, Lukavac, Gračanica, Doboj Istok, Celinac, Bijeljina, and Brcko District). As in May, houses were submerged or buried, bridges destroyed, roads blocked and communications cut off. The worst reported situation was in the Lukavac and Gračanica regions. In the latter, several hundred people were evacu- ated from their homes (UN, August 2014; JUKIC, August 2014). The September rains affected neighbouring countries more than Bosnia itself. Only in Bosanske Gradiške, in the north, were houses flooded (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, September 2014). 1. Number found in main sources, but an undated IOM report cites 32 casualties... SEM 2015 189 ELISE HAUMONT THE MAY 2014 FLOODS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: EUROPE EVACUATION AND DISPLACEMENT 2. MASSIVE DISPLACEMENT FOLLOW SOCIO-ECONOMIC PATTERNS 2.1. Unreliable data Several sources evoke “a local media, quoting government sources”2 to advance a total of 950,000 people who had to evacuate their homes at some point following the beginning of the floods (articles and reports written around 20-25 May). On 20 May, CNN cited “Bosnian officials” to give the figure of 30,000 people displaced. On the same date, abc.net cited Assistant Security Minister Samir Agic to posit 500,000 people having left their homes (GEARIN, May 2014). The needs assessment endorsed by the UN, the European Union and the World Bank cites a total of 89,981 people displaced, with 49 822 people taking refuge in either official or alternative private accommoda- tion at the peak level of displacement. In June, IOM cautiously evoked “tens of thou- sands” of displaced people, among which 90% found themselves in temporary living arrangements with relatives. In an article written in September 2014, IDMC stated that “the exact number of those displaced by the floods is unknown. Those who seek shelter with families and friends have not been included in displacement estimates and the figures for those living in the temporary accommodation facilities fluctuate as family members return home.” 2.2.