Dell Technologies LONG NYSE: DELL PT $58.59 (+14.44%) Caleb Nuttle Chen Zhou Achyut Seth Tony Wang Presentation Outline Roadmap of Pitch
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Dell Technologies LONG NYSE: DELL PT $58.59 (+14.44%) Caleb Nuttle Chen Zhou Achyut Seth Tony Wang Presentation Outline Roadmap of Pitch 1 Timeline of Dell 2 Early PC Industry [1980-2000] 3 Time of Troubles [2000-2010] 4 Dell’s Private Turnaround [2010-Present] 5 Introduction to Sum of the Parts Valuations 6 Catalysts 2 Michael Dell and Dell Timeline Timeline 1984: Michael 1995: Dell 2004: Dell 2015: Dell Dell begins expands to 2007: Rollins resigns as acquires EMC selling Asia, Europe, resigns, Dell CEO, replaced Corporation for computers at and South returns as CEO by Kevin Rollins $67 billion UT Austin America 2001: Dell is 2013: Dell 2018: Dell 1988: PC’s 2006: Dell loses No. 1 computer taken private by returns to public Limited goes momentum, HP systems Silver Lake market with public as Dell replaces Dell as provider Partners for new cloud Computer Corp No.1 provider worldwide $24.4 billion computing Dell CEO – Michael Dell Became the Owns 57% of Dell Orchestrated the youngest CEO of a stock and 66% of largest buyout since Fortune 500 voting rights the Great Recession company at 27 “Our business is about technology, yes. But it’s also about operations and customer relationships.” “He’s an absolute Chad.” ~ Anthony, 2020 3 Early Successes [1980-2000] The Rise of the PC Dell’s Competitive Edge During the advent of Gamers Rise Up Solid Tech the PC, Dell steadily Support Home video gaming begins to captured share from gain popularity with the Atari competitors through Video Computer System (Atari unbeatable cost Low Days 2600). Outsourcing Inventory efficiency, thanks in to China large part to the CEO Outstanding Educational Applications himself, Michael Dell. For many students in the Their tight supply chain 1980s, the Commodore PET and differentiated Direct to was an introduction to desktop customer experience Consumer computing and simple drove sales for years. programming. Supplier PC Maker Distributor Retailer Customer Household Uses Released in 1982, the C64 helped establishing the home Supplier Dell Customer computing market. An early platform for consumer-friendly 80% PC Share of Education Market software, it remains one of the 70% 7% all-time, top-selling PC’s. 60% 10% 13% 50% 10% 13% Information Superhighway 14% 40% 4% 13% A term coined by Al Gore, the 6% 19% superhighway refers to digital 30% 22% communication systems and 20% 27% 35% the Internet telecommunication 10% 26% 11% network, providing users 0% 4% access to high-speed 1996 1998 2000 2002 communication. Dell Apple Hewlett-Packard Gateway IBM/Lenovo 4 Time of Troubles [2000-2010] Maturing PC Industry Management Changes • By the mid-2000’s the Global PC demand on the • Michael Dell stepped back from his CEO position consumer front was reaching its limits at Dell in 2004, and was succeeded by his COO • Consumers began consolidating their number of Kevin Rollins computers, and began keeping their computers • Rollins invested millions to developing new for longer time periods customer service centers in Canada and India • This ultimately took further funding away from 2002 2008 R&D, which Dell needed to compete against Lenovo and HP’s more innovative products ~2 Years 5+ Years • Increased headcount of Dell employees by Computer Life Computer Life ~8,000+ going into the 2008 Financial Crisis Heightened Competition Dell Net Income (in millions) • By 2006, omid-2000’sther PC manufactures • Dell’s Net Income fell drastically following 2016, were emulating Dell’s supply chain strategies, falling by -17% CAGR from 2006-2010 and could provide more innovative products for similarly low prices $4,000 $3,500 Dell vs HP R&D Spending (1988-2010) $3,000 -17% $4,000 $3,500 $2,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $2,000 HP $1,500 Dell $1,500 $1,000 $500 $1,000 $0 $500 $0 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 5 Introduction to End to End Technology End-to-End Technology Company Modern Tech Company • An end-to-end technology company is a • Today, most day-to-day consumers use a company which can provide all products and combination of different products and software services required to bring a technological for their technological purpose product to competition • By breaking up the overall system into smaller • Dell is one of the few-remaining end-to-end individual companies, each step can be companies, having all the products to completely optimized and customized to a users need build a company a complex IT network • Many of the older end-to-end tech companies lost market share due to these small Pros: Simple for customer, Low-Risk of update software/hardware tech startups errors, Standard process can be cheaper Cons: Low customization, Relies on 1 company Individual Consumer Physical System Application Hardware Software Software 6 PC Industry Nowadays [2010-Present] New PC Purchases • PC Purchases have trended PC Shipments Worldwide steady/downwards over the past ~8 years (2009-2019) 100 • This is due to product consolidation within the 80 PC consumer base, where consumers own 60 fewer distinct computers 40 In Millions In 20 “The PC market continues to show pockets of resiliency 0 as PC usage experience evolves and improves” Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Q1 '12 Q3 '12 Q1 '13 Q3 '13 Q1 '14 Q3 '14 Q1 '15 Q3 '15 Q1 '16 Q3 '16 Q1 '17 Q3 '17 Q1 '18 Q3 '18 Q1 '19 Q3 '19 Lenovo HP Inc Dell Apple Asus Acer Toshiba Others Demand Competition • The new PC industry is dependent on • Dell competes primarily with other PC Corporate PC sales, while consumer development/manufacturing firms, such as HP, purchases continue to decline Lenovo, Apple, and Acer • Recent Windows 10 updates have spurred new • Dell the 3rd largest as of 2019 PC Shipments, as Windows 7 was discontinued forcing corporates to repurchase US Households with Computers 100 80 60 22.8% 40 24.8% 7.5% 20 Percent Percent of Households 0 $51.1 B $58.5 B $25.7 B 2019 Revenue 2018 Revenue 2019 Revenue 7 Private Company Turnaround Successful Dell was taken private on October 29th, 2013 in a $24.9bn deal by Silver Lake, a private equity firm, and Michael Dell. Dell Subsequently acquired EMC in another $67bn transaction What were the problems? • Dell’s share of an already contracting PC market slipped from 16.6% in 2007 to 10.7% in 2012 • Asian rivals in forced PC margins to razor-thin and margin and market share for servers continued to shrink • The PC business, despite the decline, is still generating substantial cash flow of $5.5bn • 31 percent fall in share price over 5 years Take-Private in 2013 Acquisition of EMC in 2015 • EMC is an American IT and data storage ~70% ~30% company founded in 1979 • VMWare is a software company that provides cloud computing and virtualization software Denali (Holding Company) 16.5bn FY2014 EMC Revenue Breakdown Dell 6.0bn 1.0bn 0.2bn Data Storage VMWare RSA (Security Pivotal (Cloud Enterprise Dell End-User Dell Software) Computing) Solutions Software Computing Services Group Group Rationale: After the take-private, Dell is undergoing a significant makeover • EMC allowed Dell to diversify into data centers, cloud computing, servers, software, services, security and system management • Also allowed Dell to exploit the converged infrastructure pioneered by EMC 8 Brand New Business Dell has experienced a successful turnaround, resulting it to be a much better business • Virtualization and cloud infrastructure solutions: broad portfolio of virtualization technologies across three main product groups: software-defined data center; hybrid cloud computing; and end-user computing • 23.6x trailing EV/EBITDA as of today Post VMWare - Buyout • EMC's Information Storage segment (storage solutions) and Dell’s legacy Enterprise Solutions Group (server and networking solutions) • 50% of revenue comes from Americas, with the rest coming from EMEA and EPJ. EMC(ISG) • Hovers around 10x trailing EV/EBITDA multiple in 2014 and 2015 • Branded hardware: desktop PCs, notebooks, and tablets, and branded peripherals, such as monitors, Pre - printers, and projectors Buyout • 50% of revenue comes from Americas, with the rest coming from EMEA and EPJ PC PC (CSG) • Should trade in line with other pure-play PC manufacturers (Lenovo at 6.3x, Acer 9.7x) 14.0x 12.0x Dell (9.6x) 10.0x HP (7.0x) 8.0x IBM (11.4x) 6.0x Lenovo (4.5x) 4.0x Acer (7.5x) 2.0x Asus (5.5x) 0.0x Trailing EBITDA TrailingEBITDA Multiple 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 Source: Bloomberg, IAG Analysis 9 Corporate Federation EMC Traditional vs Federation Structure • EMC had a unique corporate structure that is rarely seen today, and has affected how Dell is able to fully structure itself Parent • EMC was structured as a Corporate Federation (co-operative federation) • In a traditional corporate hierarchy, the parent company directly controls a number of various subsidiaries, and has a unified strategy • A corporate federation allows each subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary to be independent of the others • These subsidiaries would even be allowed to compete with the parent company directly • Elliot management hated this strategy as VS VMWare and EMC were directly competing Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary 10 Dell Rising Back to Relevance Dell 2.0 Early Market Returns • After restructuring themselves while private, Dell $72.50 has emerged as a more efficient company $70.00 $67.50 • The company has reinvested substantial time $65.00 $62.50 and money into repairing its supply-line $60.00 +55% efficiencies, while slimming labor costs by $57.50 $55.00 cutting unnecessary jobs $52.50 $50.00 • Improved Free Cash Flow generation $47.50 $45.00 $42.50 $40.00 1/3/2019 2/2/2019 3/4/2019 4/3/2019 5/3/2019 1/13/2019 1/23/2019 2/12/2019 2/22/2019 3/14/2019 3/24/2019 4/13/2019 4/23/2019 5/13/2019 12/24/2018 Best Selling Laptops Global Outreach • Dell has significant markets where it has a large Dell XPS 13 manufacturing presence, gaining firm market .