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Incredible Utility 1 Incredible utility 1 Incredible utility: The lost causes and causal debris of psychological science John E. Richters Rockville, Maryland Direct correspondence to: John E. Richters 13200 Valley Drive Rockville, MD 20850 [email protected] Incredible utility 2 Abstract .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 The incredible utility of perpetual motion ................................................................................................................................ 4 Incredible utility thesis ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 The plumbing and wiring of individual differences methodology ........................................................................................ 6 Table 1. .............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Individual-level theoretical models ................................................................................................................................. 11 Aggregate-level empirical models .................................................................................................................................. 12 The inferential passage from aggregates to individuals ............................................................................................... 13 Psychological homogeneity and the logic of sample-based inferences ....................................................................... 13 Figure 1. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Exegesis: psychological vs statistical homogeneity ...................................................................................................... 14 Corollaries of psychological homogeneity ..................................................................................................................... 14 The remarkable, unremarkable psychological homogeneity assumption .......................................................................... 15 Contemporary literature ................................................................................................................................................. 15 Historical literature ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 A well-tested compass .................................................................................................................................................... 17 Psychological heterogeneity of psychological structures ..................................................................................................... 18 Psychology's terrible difficulties ..................................................................................................................................... 18 A clarifying perspective ................................................................................................................................................... 19 Machines and minds ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 Natural functions ............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Natural functions of hearts and minds .......................................................................................................................... 20 Genetic underdetermination of psychological structures ............................................................................................. 21 Biological complexity and degenerate brains ................................................................................................................ 22 The ubiquity of psychological heterogeneity.......................................................................................................................... 23 Causal heterogeneity and inus conditions ..................................................................................................................... 23 Psychological and causal heterogeneity in vivo: A ground-level view of 9 hypothetical cases ................................... 24 Methodological implications of psychological heterogeneity .............................................................................................. 26 Homogeneity at work: Interpreting a bivariate correlation ........................................................................................... 26 Homogeneity on leave: Interpreting a bivariate correlation.......................................................................................... 27 Figure 2. ........................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Statistical controls and iatrogenic effects ...................................................................................................................... 29 Homogeneity on leave: Exploratory clustering strategies ............................................................................................. 30 Rabbit stew and individual differences ................................................................................................................................... 31 Catching the quantitative rabbit ..................................................................................................................................... 31 Methodological virtues and vices ................................................................................................................................... 32 How the individual differences paradigm perpetuates itself ............................................................................................... 33 The self-cloaking gravitational pull of psychological homogeneity and its corollaries ............................................... 34 Paradigmatic blindness and its virtues .......................................................................................................................... 34 Hard core privileges and protective belts ...................................................................................................................... 35 The surface and substrate of individual differences methodology .............................................................................. 35 How to diagnose a paradigmatic scotoma ..................................................................................................................... 36 Methodological myopia and the riddle of Meehl's lament ............................................................................................ 37 Concluding comments and redeeming methods .................................................................................................................... 39 Science in a box, no assembly required ......................................................................................................................... 39 Staying aloft and the challenges of landing ................................................................................................................... 40 Fear of flying and the search for exits ........................................................................................................................... 41 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................................................... 42 References .................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Incredible utility 3 Incredible utility: The lost causes and causal debris of psychological science Abstract Variable-oriented, sample-based individual differences research strategies and statistical modeling approaches to causal-theoretical inference depend for their logic, coherence, justification, and presumed heuristic value on the tacit assumption that individuals are qualitatively the same, homogeneous with respect to the psychological structures and processes underlying their overt functioning, and that quantitative differences between them are produced by exactly the same psychological structures functioning in exactly the same way within each individual. This psychological homogeneity assumption, however, is demonstrably false and invalidated by a substantial body of uncontested scientific evidence documenting psychological heterogeneity as a ubiquitous, defining characteristic of human functioning. This irreconcilable mismatch between the psychological homogeneity assumption of the paradigm and the psychologically heterogeneous realities of its phenomena renders the individual differences methodology intrinsically incapable of advancing theoretical knowledge about the causes of psychological and behavioral
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