The American Economic Review
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The American Economic Review ARTICLES CHARLES W.CALOMIRIS AND JONATHAN PRITCHETT Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War EMMANUEL SAEZ AND STEFANIE STANTCHEVA Generalized Social Marginal Welfare Weights for Optimal Tax Theory KAIVAN MUNSHI AND MARK ROSENZWEIG Networks and Misallocatlon: Insurance, Migration, and the Rural-Urban Wage Gap MARK DUGGAN, CRAIG GARTHWAITE,AND APARAJITA GOYAL The Market Impacts of Pharmaceutical Product Patents in Developing Countries: Evidence from India IAIN M. COCKBURN,JEAN O. LANJOUW,AND MARK SCHANKERMAN Patents and the Global Diffusion of New Drugs YURIV GORODNICHENKO AND MICHAEL WEBER Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market GEORGE-MARIOS ANGELETOS. LUIGl lOVINO, AND JENNIFER LA'O Real Rigidity, Nominal Rigidity, and the Social Value of Information JANUARY 2016 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Editor February 2016 PlNELOPt KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG Coedilors VOLUME 106, NUMBER 2 MARKAGUIAR ROLAND BENABOU MARIANNE BERTRAND HILARY HOYNES JOHN LEAHY LUIGI PISTAFERRI DEB RAJ RAY Articles LARRY SAMUELSON Managing Editor STEVEN M. STELLING The Politics of Compromise Associate Managing Editor KELLY MARKEL Alcsscindro Bonatti and Heikki Rantakari 229 Assistant Managing Editor MATTHEW A. ROBERSON Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence Board ol Editors from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday NAGEEB ALI Leandro S. Carvalho, Stephan Meier, MANUELAMADOR and Stephanie W. Wang 260 MARCO BASSETTO SIMON BOARD LEAH BOUSTAN On Communication and Collusion CRAIG BURNSIDE Yn Awaya and Vijay Krishna 285 ARIEL BURSTEIN STEVEN CALLANDER SYLVAIN CHASSANG Anatomy of a Contract Change ARNAUD COSTINOT Rajshri Jayaraman. Debraj Ray, MATTHIAS DOEPKE DAVE DONALDSON and Francis de Vericourt 316 JEFFREY ELY DIRK ENGELMANN Redistribution and Social Insurance ROLAND FRYER GAUTAM GOWRISANKARAN Mikhail Golosov, Maxim Troshkin, VERONICA GUERRIERI and Aleh Tsyvinski 359 ERIK HURST SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN NAVIN KARTIK Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply BRIAN KNIGHT Richard Blitndell, Liiigi Pistaferri, ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY and hay Saporta-Eksten 387 GILAT LEVY BART LIPMAN HAMISH LOW Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk JENS LUDWIG Premium GIUSEPPE MOSCARINI TEDODONOGHUE Charles Engel 436 PHILIP OREOI'OULOS JONATHAN PARKER The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas PARAG PATHAK NINA PAVCNIK Development: Corrigendum FABRIZIO PF.RRI Lucija Muehienhachs, Elisheba Spiller, and JESSE ROTHSTEIN Christopher Timmins 475 EDWARD SCHLEE RAJIV SETHI JON STEINSSON Just Luck: An Experimental Study of AMIR SUFI Risk-Taking and Fairness: Erratum CHRISTOPHER TIMMINS Alexander W. Cappelen, James Konow, SARAH TURNER ERIC VERHOOGF.N Erik 0. S0rensen. and Bertil Tiingodden 476 LEEATYARIV THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Editor March 2016 PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG Cocditors VOLUME 106, NUMBER 3 MARK AGUIAR ROLAND BENABOU MARIANNE BERTRAND HILARY HOYNES JOHN LEAHY LUIGl PISTAFERRI DEBRAJ RAY Articles LARRY SAMUELSON Managing Editor The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US STEVEN M. STEELING Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: Associate Managing Editor 1980-2000 KELLY MARKEL Rebecca Diamond 479 Assistant Managing Editor MATTHEW A. ROBERSON Board of Editors University Differences in the Graduation of NAGEEB ALI Minorities in STEM Fields: Evidence from MANUEL AMADOR California MARCO BASSETTO Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban M. Aucejo, SIMON BOARD LEAH BOUSTAN and V. Joseph Hotz 525 CRAIG BURNSIDE ARIEL BURSTEIN STEVEN CALLANDER Search Design and Broad Matching SYLVAIN CHASSANG Kfir Eliaz and Ran Spiegler 563 ARNAUD COSTINOT MATTHIAS DOEPKE DAVE DONALDSON How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Industry? JEFFREY ELY Evidence from India DIRK ENGELMANN Hunt Allcott, Allan Collard-Wexler, ROLAND FRYER and Stephen D. O'Connell 587 GAUTAM GOWRISANKARAN VERONICA GUERRIERi ERIK HURST Firm Dynamics, Job Tbrnover, and Wage SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN Distributions in an Open Economy NAVIN KARTIK BRIAN KNIGHT A. Kerem Co§ar, Nezih Gtiner, ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY and James Tybout 625 GILAT LEVY BART LIPMAN HAMISH LOW Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The JENS LUDWIG Asset Pricing Implications GIUSEPPE MOSCARINI Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Michael Johannes, TEDODONOGHUE and Lars A. Lochstoer 664 PHILIP OREOPOULOS JONATHAN PARKER PARAG PATHAK Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage NINA PAVCNIK 699 FABRIZIO PERRI Anton Korinek and Alp Simsek JESSE ROTHSTEIN EDWARD SCHLEE The Effect of Unemployment Benefits and RAJIV SETHI Nonempioyment Durations on Wages JON STEINSSON AMIR SUFI Johannes F. Schmieder, Till von Wachter, CHRISTOPHER TIMMINS and Stefan Bender 739 SARAH TURNER ERIC VERHOOGEN LEEATYARIV Shorter Papers The Value of Postsecondary Credentials in the Labor Market: An Experimental Study David J. Denting, Noam Yuchtman, Amira Abulafi, Claudia Goldin, and Lawrence F. Katz 778 Taxpayer Confusion: Evidence from the Child Tax Credit Naomi E. Feldman, Peter Katuscdk, and Laura Kawano 807 Dictating the Risk: Experimental Evidence on Giving in Risky Environments: Comment Michai Krawczyk and Fabrice Le Lec 836 Dictating the Risk: Experimental Evidence on Giving in Risky Environments: Reply J. Michelle Brock, Andreas Lange, and Erkut Y. Ozbay 840 A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade: Comment Bernardo S. Blum, Sebastian Claro, and Ignatius J. Horstmann 843 A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade: Reply Roc Armenter and Miklds Koren 852 Information on how to submit a manuscript is available online: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/submissions.php It is the policy of The American Economic Review to publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented and are readily available to any researcher for purposes of replication. Details of the computations sufficient to permit replication must be provided. The Editor should be notified at the time of submission,if the data used m a paper are proprietary or if, for some other reason, the requirements above cannot be met. THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Editor April 2016 PINELOPI KOUJIANOU GOLDBERG Coeditors VOLUME 106, NUMBER 4 MARK AGUIAR ROLAND BENABOU MARIANNE BERTRAND HILARY HOVNES JOHN LEAHY LUIGI PISTAFERRI DEBRAJ RAY Articles LARRY SAMUELSON Managing Editor The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods STEVEN M. STELLINO on Children: New Evidence from the Moving Associate Managing Editor KELLY MARKEL to Opportunity Experiment Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Assistant Managing Editor MATTHEW A. ROBERSON and Lawrence F. Katz 855 Board of Editors NAGEEB ALI Long-Run Impacts of Childhood Access MANUEL AMADOR to the Safety Net MARCO BASSETTO Hilary Hoynes, Diane Whitmore PAUL BEAUDRY SIMON BOARD Schanzenbach, and Douglas Almond 903 LEAH BOUSTAN CRAIG BURNSIDE The Long-Run Impact of Cash Transfers ARIEL BURSTEIN STEVEN CALLANDER to Poor Families ALESSANDRA CASELLA Anna Aizer, Shari Eli, Joseph Ferrie, SYLVAIN CHASSANG and Adriana Lleras-Muney 935 ARNAUD COSTINOT MATTHIAS DOEPKE DAVE DONALDSON Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a JEFFREY ELY Randomized Welfare Experiment: DIRK ENGELMANN ROLAND FRYER A Revealed Preference Approach GAUTAM GOWRISANKARAN Patrick Kline and Melissa Tartari 972 VERONICA GUERRIERI ERIK HURST SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN Presidents and the US Economy: NAVIN KARTIK an Econometric Exploration BRIAN KNIGHT Alan S. Blinder and Mark W. Watson 1015 ARVIND KRISHNAMURTHY GILAT LEVY BART LIPMAN The Evolution of Strategic Sophistication HAMISH LOW Nikolaiis Robalino and A rthur Robson 1046 JENS LUDWIG GIUSEPPE MOSCARINI TEDODONOGHUE Group Strategy-Proofness in Private Good Economies PHILIP OREOPOULOS Salvador Barberd. Dolors Berga. JONATHAN PARKER and Bernardo Moreno 1073 PARAG PATHAK NINA PAVCNIK FABRIZIO PERRI Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery: JESSE ROTHSTEIN The Case of the 1936 Veterans' Bonus EDWARD SC HLEE RAJIV SETHI Joshua K. Hausinan 1100 JON STEINSSON TOMASZ STRZALECKI AMIR SUFI CHRISTOPHER TIMMINS SARAH 1URNER JOHN VAN ri;i;nen ERIC VERHOOGEN LEEATYARIV Shorter Papers The Caloric Costs of Culture: Evidence from Indian Migrants David Atkin 1144 The Bidder's Curse: Comment Henry S. Schneider 1182 The Bidder's Curse: Reply Ulrike Mahnendier 1195 Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction: Corrigendum Allen Head. Haw Uoyd-Elli.s, and Hon^fei Sun 1214 CONTENTS President's Foreword xi Editors' Introduction xiii PAPERS Richard T. Ely Lecture Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation John Y. Campbell 1 The United States Economy: Where To from Here? The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s? Olivier Blanchard 31 Dealing with Long-Term Deficits Martin Feidstein 35 Monetary Policy. Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound Stanley Fischer 39 How to Restore Equitable and Sustainable Economic Growth in the United States Joseph E. Stiglilz 43 Can We Restart the Recovery All Over Again? John B. Taylor 48 Critiquing Robert J. Gordon's The Rise and Fall ofAmerican Growth A Century of Growth and Improvement Benjamin M. Friedntan 52 The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers Nicholas Crafts 57 State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the Nineteenth Century Daron Acemoglii. Jacob Moscona, and Jantes A. Robinson 61 Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth Gregory Clark 68 Perspectives on The Rise and Fall of American Growth Robert J. Gordon 72 Infrastructure and Development Infrastructure, Incentives, and Institutions Nava Ashraf. Edward L. Glaeser, and Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto 77 Guns. Latrines, and Land Reform: Dynamic Pigouvian