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Author's Personal Copy Author's personal copy Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 193 (2010) 117–136 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jvolgeores Modeling tephra dispersal in absence of wind: Insights from the climactic phase of the 2450 BP Plinian eruption of Pululagua volcano (Ecuador) Alain C.M. Volentik a,⁎, Costanza Bonadonna b, Charles B. Connor a, Laura J. Connor a, Mauro Rosi c a Department of Geology, SCA 528, University of South Florida, 4202, E. Fowler Ave., Tampa FL 33620, USA b Section des Sciences de la Terre et de l'environnement, Université de Genève, Rue des Maraîchers 13, 1205 Genève, Switzerland c Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, Via S. Maria 53, 56126 Pisa, Italy article info abstract Article history: The determination of eruptive parameters is crucial in volcanology, not only to document past eruptions, but Received 18 July 2009 also for tephra fallout hazard assessments. In most tephra fallout studies, eruptive parameters have been Accepted 24 March 2010 determined either by empirical techniques or analytical models, but the uncertainty of such parameters is Available online 1 April 2010 usually not well described. We have applied both empirical and analytical models to characterize the climactic phase of the 2450 BP Plinian eruption of Pululagua (BF2 layer) and explore the variations in the Keywords: total erupted mass, column height and total grain size distribution. Both approaches yield comparable results Pululagua in the total mass of tephra erupted (4.5±1.5×1011 kg), while they show some discrepancies for the Plinian eruptions – – tephra fall deposits determination of the column height (36 20 km from empirical techniques and 30 20 km from analytical grain size analysis techniques). The total grain size distribution of the BF2 layers varies with the different techniques used for modeling the calculation and significantly affects the outputs of analytical models. Furthermore, the determination of inversion techniques the total grain size distribution depends strongly on the number and spatial distribution of the sample location. Inverting tephra fallout deposits on the total accumulation (or thickness) gives a good constraint on the total mass erupted but not on the column height. However, inverting on individual grain size classes better constrains the possible range of column heights (but cannot resolve particle release height). Results from the inversion on individual grain size classes show that large diffusion coefficients are necessary to model the BF2 layer and might be required to model proximal tephra deposits in order not to overestimate the total erupted mass. Additionally, we used a statistical method (smoothed bootstrap approach) to quantify the uncertainty in eruptive parameters such as column height and total erupted mass. Our uncertainty analysis yields a mean total erupted mass of 4.5±0.3×1011 kg and a mean column height of 30±3 km. Results from the uncertainty analysis compare well with results from other approaches. Finally, although the climactic phase of the 2450 BP Plinian eruption of Pululagua occurred in relatively calm atmospheric conditions, our results show that the dispersion of the BF2 layer was influenced by slight northeasterly wind conditions. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction in the field and can be used to infer eruption parameters such as column height, total mass of tephra erupted, total grain size Tephra dispersal models are important in volcanology, not only to distribution (TGSD), and wind direction and speed (Carey and Sparks, constrain physical processes leading to tephra transport and sedi- 1986; Pyle, 1989; Fierstein and Nathenson, 1992; Bonadonna and mentation following an explosive eruption at a given volcano (e.g. Houghton, 2005). These models are mainly based on curve-fitting Armienti et al., 1988; Bursik et al., 1992; Bonadonna and Phillips 2003; techniques of field observations and on simplified description of Costa et al., 2006), but also to assess tephra hazards that potentially tephra dispersal. Wind advection adds a level of complexity in the threaten populated areas (e.g. Connor et al., 2001; Bonadonna et al., study of tephra dispersion. Only three eruptions are known to have 2005a; Houghton et al., 2006; Macedonio et al., 2008) and critical occurred in approximately still atmospheric conditions, resulting in a facilities (e.g. Volentik et al., 2009). For past and unwitnessed circular-shaped dispersion of tephra around the vent: the ∼5000 BP eruptions, the thickness and/or accumulation of tephra is measured Fogo A eruption (Walker and Croasdale, 1971; Bursik et al., 1992), the 1210 BP eruption of Cotopaxi (layer 9 of Barberi et al., 1995) and the 2450 BP Plinian eruption of Pululagua, Ecuador (Papale and Rosi, 1993). We have chosen the latter to investigate sedimentation from ⁎ Corresponding author. New address: Department of Geology & Geophysics, School Plinian plumes and evaluate empirical and analytical models for the of Ocean & Earth Sciences & Technology, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA. determination of crucial eruptive parameters (e.g. Pyle 1989, Bona- E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (A.C.M. Volentik). donna and Houghton 2005, Connor and Connor 2006) and analytical 0377-0273/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.03.011 Author's personal copy 118 A.C.M. Volentik et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 193 (2010) 117–136 models for the description of particle transport and deposition (e.g. White Ash deposit (WA), a thin ash bed that tops the Plinian sequence Bonadonna et al. 2005a; Connor et al., 2008). (Papale and Rosi, 1993). This ash bed (also defined as co-plinian ash There is uncertainty in the modeling of tephra deposits and the according to the general description of Fierstein and Hildreth (1992)) inference of eruptive parameters. Such uncertainties are usually not is thought to have originated from the slow settling of fines (b1 mm) well described in the literature. Therefore, we describe a Monte Carlo after cessation of the sustained Plinian column. Had a moderate wind approach, combined with a smoothed bootstrap method, to quantify field been present at the time of the eruption of the BF layer, the fine the uncertainty in the determination of total erupted mass and White Ash particles would have been advected downwind and would column height from inversion of field data. We investigate the have sedimented away from the vent. Papale and Rosi (1993) calc- variability of the results (i.e. column height and total erupted mass) in ulated a maximum column height of 36 km (based on the 3.2, 1.6 terms of the total accumulation observed and for each grain size. and 0.8 cm lithic isopleths) and 21 km (based on the 6.4 cm lithic isopleth), using the model of Carey and Sparks (1986) (thereafter 2. Geological setting and background referred as CS). The model of Wilson and Walker (1987) applied to the 4.9 and 6.4 cm lithic isopleths yielded a column height of 28 km (Papale Pululagua Volcano is part of the active Western Andean Volcanic and Rosi, 1993). Magma discharge rate was estimated to be 2×108 kg/s, Front of Ecuador (Hall et al., 2008) and is located 15 km north of Quito following both Sparks' (1986) and Wilson and Walker's (1987) models. (Fig. 1). Papale and Rosi (1993), Pallini (1996) and Andrade and Pallini (1996) revisited the BF deposit and subdivided it into additional Molina (2006) described the volcanic stratigraphy and evolution of layers compared to the study of Papale and Rosi (1993) and proposed a Pululagua. Pululagua is a 19 km2 dacitic caldera and is surrounded by volume for the BF of about 0.58 km3,basedonPyle's (1989) method. The ten older lava domes. The most recent volcanic activity at Pululagua eruption column height was estimated using CS and Pyle (1989) models started with the formation of old dacitic lava domes with their and yielded heights of 36 km and 28 km respectively. Thus, Pallini (1996) associated block-and-ash flow deposits, which are capped by an proposed a probable column height of 32 km, resulting from the average ubiquitous, well-developed palaeosoil. The 2450 BP Plinian sequence of these two estimates, and a magma discharge rate of 2×108 kg/s (based overlies this palaeosoil conformably. The explosive activity leading to on Sparks, 1986)and3×108 kg/s (based on Wilson and Walker, 1987). the formation of the irregularly shaped caldera occurred as a series of This whole BF tephra sequence is overlain by numerous pyroclastic volcanic eruptions during which ∼5–6km3 (DRE) of hornblende- density currents (PDCs) in the near-vent region intercalated within bearing dacitic magma was erupted. Papale and Rosi (1993) estimated other minor tephra fallout deposits (Papale and Rosi, 1993; Andrade that the main basal pumice fall (BF) deposit (Fig. 2) covers an area of and Molina, 2006). The latter tephra deposits show a global westward more than 2.2×104 km2 and has a volume of about 1.1 km3 (0.34 km3 dispersion (Papale and Rosi, 1993) compared to the BF sequence. DRE). The general stratigraphy of Pululagua deposits, as well as the circular isopach and isopleth maps, were presented by Papale and Rosi 3. New stratigraphy (1993) for the whole basal fallout deposit. The circular pattern of the isopach and isopleth maps indicates emplacement in relatively wind- We use Pallini's (1996) work to define a more detailed strati- free conditions, which is confirmed by an ubiquitous, normally graded graphic subdivision for the BF eruption (Fig. 2a–c): (i) a basal grey ash Fig. 1. Digital elevation model for the region of interest around Pululagua, with the three axes used in this study: 1, the ESE axis; 2, the SE axis and 3, the SW axis.
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