Can United States Sugar Maple (Acer Saccharum) Syrup Production Be Maintained in a Warming Climate? Stephen N
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIODIVERSITY SCIENCE, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES & MANAGEMENT, 2017 VOL. 13, NO. 2, 40–52 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2017.1285815 Special Issue: Ecosystem Services Nexus Thinking Managing for delicious ecosystem service under climate change: can United States sugar maple (Acer saccharum) syrup production be maintained in a warming climate? Stephen N. Matthewsa,b and Louis R. Iverson b aSchool of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA; bNorthern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH, USA ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is a highly valued tree in United States (US) and Canada, and Received 9 June 2016 its sap when collected from taps and concentrated, makes a delicious syrup. Understanding Accepted 18 December 2016 how this resource may be impacted by climate change and other threats is essential to EDITED BY continue management for maple syrup into the future. Here, we evaluate the current Christine Fürst distribution of maple syrup production across twenty-three states within the US and estimate the current potential sugar maple resource based on tree inventory data. We KEYWORDS model and project the potential habitat responses of sugar maple using a species distribu- Maple syrup; climate tion model with climate change under two future General Circulation Models (GCM) and change; sugar maple (Acer saccharum emission scenarios and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). Our results show that under ); ecosystem services; Eastern United GFDL-A1Fi (high CO2 emissions), sugar maple habitat is projected to decline (mean ratio of States future habitat to current habitat per state = 0.46, sd ± 0.33), which could lead to reduced maple syrup production per tree and nearly 5 million additional taps required to maintain current projection levels.
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