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Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources Management and the People of the Great Lakes - St

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Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources Management and the People of the Great Lakes - St CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PEOPLE OF THE GREAT LAKES - ST. LAWRENCE SYSTEM: A TECHNICAL SURVEY A report prepared for the International Joint Commission Reference on Consumption, Diversions and Removals of Great Lakes Water Compiled by Linda Mortsch Environment Canada with support from Murray Lister, Brent Lofgren, Frank Quinn and Lisa Wenger This report has relied extensively on Canada Country Study -Water resources Chapter with contributions from: N. Hoffman, L. Mortsch, S. Donner, K. Duncan, R. Kreutzwiser, S. Kulshreshtha, A. Piggott, S. Schellenberg, B. Schertzer, M. Slivitzky 8L Climate Change Impacts: an Ontario Perspective prepared for the Ontario Round Table on Environment and Economy with contributions from: 1. Burton, S. Cohen, H. Hengeveld, G. Koshida, N. Mayer, B. Mills, L. Mortsch, J. Smith, P. Stokoe July, 1999 1 DISCLAIMER The information contained herein was assembled as part of a basic fact-finding effort in support of the International Joint Commission Reference on Consumption, Diversion and Removal of Great Lakes Water. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent the opinions of either the Commission or its Study Team. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 6 ENHANCING THE ‘GREENHOUSE EFFECT’ 6 CLIMATE RESPONSE TO A CHANGING ATMOSPHERE 7 2. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 8 TEMPERATURE 8 TEMPERATURE TRENDS 8 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE 11 PRECIPITATION 14 PRECIPITATION TRENDS 14 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION 16 EVAPORATION I EVAPOTRANSPIRATION 17 EVAPORATION TRENDS 19 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON EVAPORATION 19 SURFACE FLOWS 20 VARIABILITY AND EXTREME EVENTS 20 RIVER DISCHARGEISTREAMFLOW TRENDS 20 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON STREAMFLOW AND RUNOFF 21 The St. Lawrence River: A Case Study of a Large River 22 CHANGES IN HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY 24 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS 25 GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL TRENDS 25 CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREAT LAKES LEVELS 25 LAKE ICE 27 GROUNDWATER 27 THE GRAND RIVER BASIN: CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY 27 WATER QUALITY 28 INCREASED TEMPERATURES 28 CHANGE IN SEASONALITY OF RUNOFF 28 CLIMATE AND WATER QUALITY OF LARGE LAKES 28 3. WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY 29 AGRICULTURE 29 FISHERIES 30 WATER QUANTITY CHANGES 30 WATER QUALITY CHANGES 30 RECREATION AND TOURISM 31 LOW WATER LEVELS 31 HYDROELECTRIC POWER 31 NAVIGATION 32 MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND 33 INDUSTRIAUCOMMERCIALENTERPRISES 33 CONFLICT AND COMPETITION OVER WATER 34 4. REFERENCES 38 3 LIST OF FIGURES 1. Combined global land air and sea surface temperatures 1860-1999 (March) relative to 1961- 8 1990 average (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, 1999) 2. Comparison of annual global temperature increase from one CCCMa transient GCM 9 (greenhouse gases and aerosols) run, with measured annual global temperature increase, CCCMa transient GCM control temperature and other GCM temperature increases 3. Annual Surface Temperature Trends for 1961-1990 (data from Jones et a/., 1994) 10 4. Average Annual Temperature, 1954-1995 12 5. Average Annual Temperature, 2030 Transient GCM Scenario 13 6. Snowpack for the current climate (a) and 2xC0, climate scenario (b) for the northwestern 17 portion of the Bay of Quinte Watershed (Lake Ontario Watershed) 7. Total Average Annual Precipitation, 1954-1995 18 8. Total Average Annual Precipitation, 2030 Transient GCM Scenario 19 9. Discharge Trends of the St. Lawrence River (at Cornwall) (1861-1 994) and at Ville de 21 Lasalle (1955-1 994) IO. Quarter-monthly levels (IGLD 1985) at Montreal Harbor - Jetty No. 1 for the 1930s under 24 present regulation conditions for Lake Ontario (plan 58D) and chart datum LIST OF TABLES 1. Selected Regional and Canadian Temperature Trends 10 2. Scenarios of Temperature Change ("C) for GCM Equilibrium 2xC0, and Transient 11 "Enhanced Greenhouse Effect" Runs 3. Annual and seasonal precipitation trends for regions in Canada 15 4. Great Lakes Region Drought Episodes 14 5. Projected changes in precipitation in equilibrium 2xC0, and transient GCM 'enhanced 16 greenhouse effect' scenarios 6. Great floods and high water levels in the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Region 21 7. Climate impact assessments on hydrology in the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence region: a 23 review of scenarios, methods and impacts 8. St. Lawrence flows at Montreal - historical and 2xC0, conditions 24 4 ... 9. Impacts on the Great Lakes by GCM Scenario 26 .- io. Fisheries Impacts in the Great Lakes 31 II ".. 11. Summary of hydrologic impacts from studies using various climate change scenarios 36 ..... .... 5 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PEOPLE OF THE Great Lakes - ST. LAWRENCE SYSTEM: A TECHNICAL SURVEY I. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE For more than 150 years, scientists have recognized that small concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere play an essential role in keeping Earth suitable for life. This concept - popularly known as the 'greenhouse effect' -- is based on extensive observations that indicate that these gases allow sunlight to pass through the atmosphere to the Earth's surface relatively unhindered, but absorb much of the outgoing heat radiation emitted by Earth back towards space. By trapping extra heat at the Earth's surface, this natural insulating blanket increases surface temperatures on average by some 33°C;without this effect, Earth would be a frozen planet and would likely not support life. ENHANCING THE 'GREENHOUSE EFFECT' Humans, through atmospheric pollution, have already begun to dramatically alter the concentrations of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO, ), methane (CH,), nitrous oxides (NO,) and chloroflorocarbons (CFCs), in the atmosphere. The trends in atmospheric constituents suggests that humans have already altered the make-up of the atmosphere and hence its 'greenhouse effect' properties. Scientific studies link changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases to emissions from anthropogenic sources. The most significant sources are burning of fossil fuels (transportation, heating, cooling, and industrial activities) and various forestry and agricultural practices. Most of these greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for centuries or more. These changes in atmospheric composition are irreversible on individual human time scales. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution 200 years ago, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide have increased by about 30%. Analyses of air bubbles trapped in glacial ice suggest that these levels appear to be without precedence during the past 220,000 years of Earth's history. Similar measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations show that pre-industrial levels have more than doubled during the past two centuries. Concentrations of other greenhouse gases are also increasing. The current effect of the combined increase in concentration of all the greenhouse gases is approximately equivalent to a 50 percent increase in CO,. Water vapour is the most significant greenhouse gas; humans do not alter its concentrations directly. However, the warmer climate caused by the accumulation of other greenhouse gases increases evaporation of water at the surface and enhances the capacity of the atmosphere to retain water vapour. Such increases in the concentrations of water vapour amplify the effect of other greenhouse gas emissions. Sulphate and other aerosols have a regional cooling effect on climate that can temporarily mask some of the consequences of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. Volcanic eruptions such as Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 introduce aerosols into the upper atmosphere. Combustion of fossil fuels and biomass (e.g. precursors of acid precipitation) introduce them into the lower atmosphere. In the Kyoto Protocol, many countries have committed to reducing their greenhouse gas contributions (or emissions) by a percentage of their 1990 emissions. This does not mean that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will decrease only that the rate of increase will not be as rapid. Various scenarios of plausible, future emissions of greenhouse gases have been developed. These scenarios suggest that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of COz are almost certain by the latter half of the next century. Tripling of C02or more is a possibility. 6 Over the next 60 years, a 50 percent reduction in the global emissions of greenhouse gases will be necessary if atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are to be stabilized at DOUBLE the 1990 levels. The levels of carbon dioxide in 1994 were 358 ppmv; pre-industrial levels were 280 ppmv. CLIMATE RESPONSE TO A CHANGING ATMOSPHERE General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the most effective method of testing how an 'enhanced greenhouse effect' due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will affect climate processes, the climate of the Earth's surface and the consequent behaviour of weather patterns around the world. Most GCMs were originally developed from computer models used for weather forecasting. The models were modified to incorporate long-term climate processes and remove very short-term processes. Early versions of GCMs, developed in the 1970s and 1980s, used simple ocean schemes called a swamp or slab ocean and had poor spatial resolution. They only simulated the climate system once it reached equilibrium (called an equilibrium response). Now, the most advanced GCMs include: a circulating ocean
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