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LAA130627:Latin America Advisor.Qxd www.thedialogue.org Thursday, June 27, 2013 FEATURED Q&A BOARD OF ADVISORS Are Chances Improving for Better Business Ties With Cuba? Diego Arria James R. Jones Director, Co-chair, U.S. and Cuban diplomats plan to all, and both parties appear to have con- Columbus Group Manatt Jones resume bilateral talks on migra- cluded that three more years of non-dia- Global Strategies LLC tion issues during a meeting in logue is unacceptable, notwithstanding Mr. Genaro Arriagada Washington on July 17. News of Gross. This is welcome news. But real Nonresident Senior Craig A. Kelly Q the migration talks came after the two progress will require political will at the Fellow, Director, Americas Inter-American International Gov't countries held a round of discussions on White House, of which there is little evi- Dialogue Relations resuming direct mail service. How much dence. Since 2009, Cuba has released polit- Joyce Chang Exxon Mobil progress are the old Cold War foes making ical prisoners; granted its citizens greater on rapprochement? Can any significant freedom of movement; liberalized rules on Global Head of John Maisto Emerging Markets Director, thaw happen while Alan Gross and four car and home sales; allowed greater private Research, JPMorgan U.S. Education Finance members of the "Cuban Five" remain in economic activity; and announced term Chase & Co. Group prison? What is at stake for businesses in limits on political offices, including the W. Bowman Cutter Nicolás Mariscal the United States and elsewhere? presidency—all steps consistent with U.S. Former Partner, Chairman, E.M. Warburg Continued on page 3 Grupo Marhnos Matthew Aho, consultant with Pincus Akerman Senterfitt LLP in New Thomas F. Dirk Donath McLarty III York: "It speaks volumes about Managing Director, President, the dismal state of U.S.-Cuba Eton Park Capital McLarty Associates A Management relations when, nearly a quarter century Carlos Paz-Soldan after the end of the Cold War, talks on the Jane Eddy Partner, resumption of postal service is considered Managing Director, DTB Associates, LLP 'progress.' Yet the tone of June talks on pre- Corporate & Govt. Ratings Group, Beatrice Rangel cisely this issue was described as a 'sea Standard & Poor's Director, change' by U.S. officials and appears to AMLA Consulting LLC have laid groundwork for further discus- Marlene Fernández sions on more complicated issues. Talking Corporate Vice José Antonio Ríos Chilean Student Protest President for Chief Executive Officer, about mail may not sound like much, but Demonstrations Turn Violent Government Relations, Vadium Technology Inc. contact between similarly high-ranking Arcos Dorados officials hasn't occurred since before the A peaceful nationwide demonstration by Gustavo Roosen Peter Hakim 2009 arrest of Alan Gross when they were more than 100,000 students demanding Chairman of the Board, also discussing (you guessed it) mail. Since education reform on Wednesday turned President Emeritus, Envases Venezolanos Inter-American 2010, Cuba has insisted it will only release violent, with hooded protesters hurling Dialogue Andrés Rozental Mr. Gross via a quid pro quo exchange Molotov cocktails at a police station in President, involving one or more of the 'Cuban Five', the capital city of Santiago. See brief on Donna Hrinak Rozental & Asociados President, and Senior Fellow, a prospect Washington has rejected, result- page 2. Boeing Brazil Brookings Institution ing in stalemate. So the scheduled talks are Photo: AFP. significant because they are happening at Jon Huenemann Everett Santos Vice President, President, U.S. & Int'l Affairs, DALEC LLC Inside This Issue Philip Morris Int'l Shelly Shetty FEATURED Q&A: Are Chances Improving General Motors to Invest $691 Million Head, Latin America for Better Business Ties With Cuba?..................1 in Mexico Plant Upgrades ...................................3 Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc.-Start Content- U.S. Increases Pressure on Ecuador Uruguay Teachers Vote for Over Snowden Asylum Case................................2 National Strike on Friday.......................................3 Repsol Board Rejects $5 Billion Investment Flows to Latin America Offer From Argentina for YPF Seizure ................2 Remain High But Weakened in 2012...................3 Copyright © 2013, Inter-American Dialogue Page 1 of 4 Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Thursday, June 27, 2013 NEWS BRIEFS Political News under the Generalized System of Preferences which is presently before the Chilean Student Protest Congress for renewal." "Trade preferences Demonstrations Turn Violent U.S. Increases Pressure on Ecuador are a privilege granted to nations, not a A peaceful nationwide demonstra- Over Snowden Asylum Case right," Menendez said. "I urge President tion by more than 100,000 Chilean Correa to do the right thing by the United students demanding education Ecuadorean government officials on States and Ecuador, and deny Snowden's Wednesday signaled to Washington that request for asylum." Even before the reform on Wednesday turned vio- they may deliberate slowly on the asylum Snowden controversy, however, some lent, with hooded protesters hurling application from Edward J. Snowden, 30, analysts expressed doubt that the prefer- Molotov cocktails at a police station the former security contractor wanted in ences would be renewed next month. in the capital city of Santiago and the United States, The New York Times [Editor's note: See Q&A on the Ecuador's looting a restaurant, the Associated reported. Ricardo Patiño, Ecuador's for- trade preferences renewal in the June 13 Press reported. Police in riot gear eign minister, suggested to reporters issue of the Advisor.] Meanwhile, Efraín responded with water cannons and Wednesday at a news conference while Baus, the deputy chief of mission at tear gas. Police arrested 102 people, traveling in Malaysia that his government Ecuador's Embassy in Washington, on while four officers were injured. could take "a day, a week, or, as with Wednesday asked the United States for information in writing about the asylum Brazilian Congress, Supreme application, the Associated Press report- Court Respond to Protests ed. "The government of Ecuador has I urge President Correa to do Brazil's Congress and Supreme “ requested that the U.S. submit its position Court took new steps Wednesday to the right thing by the United regarding this applicant in writing so that it can be taken into consideration as part respond the county's ongoing public States and Ecuador. of our thorough review process." Other demonstrations, Folha de São Paulo ” — Sen. Robert Menendez left-leaning leaders in Latin America have reported. The Supreme Court expressed support for the fugitive. On ordered the arrest of a congressman Tuesday, Venezuela's President, Nicolas convicted of embezzlement in 2010, Assange, it could take 2 months," to Maduro, said his country would consider the first such arrest in decades. decide on the application. Patiño was an asylum application from Snowden if it Meanwhile, the country's Senate comparing the Snowden case to that of receives one. passed a bill that increases the Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, mandatory sentences for murder who has been given asylum in the Company News and corruption. The House of Ecuadorean Embassy in London. He Representatives will now consider added that his country's relations with the that bill, as well as a bill that would United States would be one of the factors Repsol Board Rejects $5 Billion Offer considered in the decision, according to From Argentina for YPF Seizure reduce the secrecy surrounding the the report. Wednesday was Snowden's impeachment of congressmen. fourth day holed up in a restricted inter- The board of Spain-based oil company [Editor's note: See Q&A on the national transit area of Moscow's Repsol on Wednesday unanimously protests in yesterday's Advisor.] Sheremetyevo airport, where he remains rejected Argentina's offer of compensa- in diplomatic limbo. Meanwhile, some tion for the 2011 expropriation of 51 per- Chinese Firm to Double Investment in Peru Copper Project members of the U.S. Congress have cent of its shares in YPF, Clarín reported. stepped up pressure on Ecuador over the In a press release, the board stated that the Peru's minister of energy and mines, case. U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), offer, which the Argentine government Jorge Merino, said Wednesday that Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations valued at about $5 billion, was "unsatis- China's Chinalco plans to double its Committee, issued a press release factory for the interests of the company" investment in a copper project in Wednesday afternoon calling on Russia to and "does not have the minimum neces- the Andean country, state news "cease sheltering international fugitive sary legal and economic guarantees." The agency Andina reported. The firm Edward Snowden and release him imme- proposal would have given Repsol 47 per- plans to increase its investment in diately into the custody of the United cent ownership in a new company with States." Menendez also warned Ecuador's drilling rights to 6.4 percent of the Toromocho copper project from government, led by leftist President Rafael Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale-gas field $2.05 billion to $4.8 billion. The Correa, not to grant Snowden asylum, and $1.5 billion in cash and bonds that mine should produce about 300,000 adding that such a decision "would can only be invested in the project, Dow tons of copper per year and employ severely jeopardize the preferential trade Jones reported. Repsol, which has esti- 2,500 people. access provided to goods from Ecuador mated the value of the seized assets at Copyright © 2013, Inter-American Dialogue Page 2 of 4 Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Thursday, June 27, 2013 more than $10 billion, has threatened school students begins. The unions, toric highs last year, falling just 2 percent legal action against companies that seek which are demanding higher wages, bet- to $244 billion, the United Nations to invest in any of YPF's assets.
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